Xiaomi's 4Q25 adjusted net profit of Rmb6.3b beat our/consensus estimates by 28%/10%, though it was driven by nonoperating items, and core operating profit missed our estimate by 20%. Management guided that memory price headwinds will persist beyond 2027, but remains committed to maintaining its smartphone market share and current margin levels. On the brighter side, Xiaomi’s emerging businesses, such as EV and AI, remain solid and are likely to remain key investor focus. Maintain HOLD; cut targ...
Top Stories Company Results | Minth Group (425 HK/BUY/HK$36.00/Target: HK$56.00) Minth’s 2H25 net profit slightly missed expectations at Rmb1,416m (+13.1% yoy/+10.9% hoh), with one-off gains partly offsetting revenue miss. Looking ahead, earnings growth will be driven by new product lines and customer base expansion. We trim our 2026-27 net profit estimates by 11%/13% to Rmb2,874m/Rmb3,376m respectively, on short-term turbulence of EV sales, and introduce our 2028 net profit forecast of Rmb4,01...
Greater China Company Results | Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.50/Target: HK$1.92) Giordano’s 2025 revenue/net profit saw changes of -1.7%/+0.5% yoy, 4.5%/4.3% below our estimates on lower-than-expected core business growth and softened performance of the non-Giordano brands in Indonesia. For 2026, Giordano targets a 3-5% revenue growth for its core brands and is cautious on potential logistics cost hikes due to geopolitical tension. It expects its Mainland China store consolidation to ...
Xiaomi officially launched the SU7 facelift version and introduced upgrades in both performance, comfort, autonomous driving capabilities across its product line-up, with a key surprise in its pricing only increasing by Rmb4,000 across the board which is better than expected. The SU7 facelift received 15,000 units of non-refundable orders in the first 34 minutes after launch, which is on track but unlikely to cause excitement to the investors at this point. Maintain HOLD and keep target price at...
Top Stories Company Results | AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$34.30/Target: HK$41.00) AAC's 2H25 earnings registered a solid 8.7%/4.1% beat vs our/consensus estimates on better opex control and lower finance costs. Management remained optimistic on its diversified business, guiding steady margin improvements and revenue growth of mid-teens or above for most segments in 2026. Maintain BUY and keep target price at HK$41.00. Company Results | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$82.80/Target: HK$109.00) AI...
Greater China Company Results | AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$34.30/Target: HK$41.00) AAC's 2H25 earnings registered a solid 8.7%/4.1% beat vs our/consensus estimates on the back of better opex control and lower finance costs. Management remained optimistic on its diversified business, guiding for steady margin improvements and revenue growth of mid-teens or above for most segments in 2026. Maintain BUY and keep target price at HK$41.00. Company Results | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$82.80...
Xiaomi is scheduled to report its results on 24 March. We expect the ongoing memory headwinds to start impacting its smartphone business more significantly, as shipments and margins are both registering meaningful declines. On the other hand, sales of IoT products are moderating from a higher base. The EV business remain strong but we may see a slower quarter on the back of product transition. Downgrade to HOLD and cut target price to HK$37.50.
Top Stories Sector Update | Healthcare The HSHCI fell by 4.0%, underperforming the HSI which decreased mildly by 0.3% in 16-27 Feb 26. AI-related names such as InSilico, Xtalpi, Medlive, Ali Health, and JD Health experienced the largest fluctuation and significant declines during this period. As globalisation gains momentum, we navigate the complexities of global market dynamics and competition. Chinese healthcare companies are making significant breakthroughs and seizing a growing share of the...
With the sales of NVIDIA H200 to China, Chinese AI developers will receive a major boost in compute resources, and China’s AI development will further accelerate in 2026. That said, domestic AI chips shipments will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the strengthening of local supply chain remains the highest priority. We maintain our positive view on the domestic AI supply chain with preferences for WFE makers like NAURA. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
Amid the memory chip supercycle, our estimates show that low-end/mid-range/high-end phones will see a 16.7%/12.0%/9.3% increase in BOM cost in 2026, which will be absorbed by consumers, smartphone OEMs and component suppliers. The impact will spread unevenly across the industry, but high-end phones will be less affected than others; smartphone OEMs absorbing the bulk of the costs will make component suppliers better positioned, and Apple’s supply chain will outperform Android thanks to Apple’s s...
Xiaomi’s EV business has turned around in 3Q and shipment numbers are on track to reach consensus estimates of over 400,000 units. The tight memory supply and cost hikes will inevitably impact Xiaomi’s margins through 2026, although Xiaomi is able to secure sufficient supply for 2026 and is looking to partially mitigate cost pressure through ASP hikes and shifts to premium devices. Maintain BUY; cut target price to HK$54.60 but advise staying on the sidelines amid poor market sentiment.
Top Stories Initiate Coverage | Pony AI Inc (PONY US/BUY/US$12.18/Target: US$26.10) Pony AI is a global leader in autonomous mobility, leveraging its virtual driver technology to enable the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles across diverse regions. We expect revenue to grow at a three-year CAGR of 65% from 2024-27, net loss to narrow, and bottom line to turn around in 2028, driven by large-scale commercialisation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of US$26.10 for ...
Greater China Initiate Coverage | Pony AI Inc (PONY US/BUY/US$12.18/Target: US$26.10) Pony AI is a global leader in autonomous mobility, leveraging its virtual driver technology to enable the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles across diverse regions. We expect revenue to grow at a three-year CAGR of 65% from 2024-27, net loss to narrow, and bottom line to turn around in 2028, driven by large-scale commercialisation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of US$26.10...
Xiaomi’s EV business is expected to finally reach profitability at the operating level, thanks to rising operating scale and operational optimisation of its existing plant. Meanwhile, the smartphone business faces some near-term headwinds from rising memory prices, which have impacted margins and is likely to persist in the coming quarters. The IoT segment’s growth is slowing, but we believe it is still operating at a good scale, with margins still expanding sequentially. Maintain BUY; trim targ...
Greater China Company Results | China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.75 /Target: HK$2.06) CR Building Mat Tech’s 9M25 results were below expectations, with earnings up 7.3% yoy to Rmb331m on lower coal costs. Weather disruptions weighed on 3Q25 cement sales volume, while Guangdong prices stayed soft. Aggregates turned loss-making, prompting capex cuts. Management guided 2025 sales of 55m tonnes (-10.9% yoy) and highlighted a planned capacity-exit fund as a medium-term ...
Top Stories Company Results | CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$17.04/Target: HK$20.30) CMOC’s 9M25 net profit rose 72.6% yoy to Rmb14,279.7m, driven by higher copper prices and a record output of 543,000 tonnes (+14.1% yoy). Gross margin expanded to 22.0% (+4.3ppt yoy) on stronger copper and cobalt prices, while the DRC export quota continued to constrain cobalt sales. KFM Phase 2 will add around 100,000 tonnes to copper capacity by 2027. We maintain BUY on CMOC with a higher target price of HK$20.30. Com...
AI infrastructure investments continue to surge, with consensus forecasts for top China/US hyperscalers growing over 10% and 20% qoq respectively. This should fuel AI server demand growth of 60% yoy by 2026. Consumer electronics remain strong, with iPhone 17 lead times far exceeding that of iPhone 16 and Android flagships set for further spec upgrades, which will support multi-year shipment growth. China’s automation and robotics markets are also recovering faster than expected, with humanoid ro...
In August, the HSI and MSCI China Index hit their ytd highs, posting gains of 1.2% mom and 4.2% mom respectively, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Chair J. Powell at Jackson Hole. Looking ahead, we expect some consolidation as most of the positives have been priced in and are biased to SELL. We add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, while initiating SELL calls on Li Auto and OOIL. We take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME.
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