EME Equity Market – October 2025 Hungarian BUX leads in October, Türkiye and Greece lag. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.5% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in USD terms in October. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 9.1% mom in EUR terms; followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.9% mom) and the Romanian BET (+5.4% mom) (in EUR terms). The Czech PX was also in the green (+2.8% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Turkish ISE30 (-1.9% mom and -1.1% mom, in EUR terms, respectively) both los...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q25 very solid; 20%+ ROE delivery; key catalyst will be M&A decisions NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 3Q25 beat driven purely by positive LLPs balance, still no breakthrough in NII performance NEUTRAL • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • mBank: 3Q25 bottom line misses estimates, but purely on higher tax and FX mortgage saga provisions NEUTRAL • Kruk: 3Q25 results a mixed bag – recoveries strong, revenues down, no breakthrough in Spain NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat...
We think that the robust outlook for Polish economic growth should offset mid-term uncertainty on fiscal policy and political risk. We have made a slight upward revision to our forecasts for pre-tax profit (by 1% to 4%) but lowered our EPS forecasts by 21% for 2026e and 4% for 2027e. After factoring in the full impact of the new tax bill, we have adjusted our target prices but remain cautiously positive on Polish banks. We favour mBank (upgrade to Outperform) for its upbeat long-term outlook and...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: makes an offer to buy Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 3Q25 sales up 48.5% yoy to PLN 23.3m POSITIVE • Poland macro: August balance of payments data underscores weak exports • Budimex: PLN 2.6bn bid from Budimex's consortium scored highest in the PKP PLK tender POSITIVE • PZU: the new CEO gives one of his first interviews, discussing the potential PZU–Pekao merger NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: Hard Rock Cafe joining the company’s brand portfolio POSITIVE • CEZ: AN...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: announces all-share merger with parent Allwyn International NEUTRAL • Eurobank: acquires Fairfax's 80% stake in Eurolife's life insurance business NEUTRAL • CTP: issues EUR 600m 6.5Y green bonds at a 3.625% coupon POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: ASK up 17% in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • Cimsa: grey cement grinding plant in Houston has been commissioned POSITIVE • 11 bit: management board member sold shares worth PLN 0.3m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (6-12 October) • Titan: ...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid 3Q25 trading update, but still at a standstill in Spain NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q25 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 394m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • Murapol: 734 apartments sold and 413 units handed over in 3Q25; 66% of our annual sales forecast met after 1-3Q25 NEGATIVE • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, on steady inflation • Romania macro: MPC on a prolonged pause • Theon International: si...
HEADLINES: • Tofas: shifting gear to growth (stays BUY) • Huuuge Games: preliminary 3Q25 revenue at USD 55.8m, down 5% yoy and 5% qoq NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: restarts flights to Abu Dhabi, tempers expectations on groundings NEGATIVE • 4iG: signs sale and purchase agreement regarding acquisition of N7 Holding subsidiaries NEUTRAL • Air Astana: CEO Peter Foster to retire at end-March 2026 • EME Strategy: FTSE reclassifies Greece as a Developed Market POSITIVE
HEADLINES: • Diagnostyka: risk of the gradual loss of key customer, Luxmed NEGATIVE • PZU / Bank Pekao: potential merger continuing • Ten Square Games: 3Q25 bookings up 4.5% qoq, better than Sensor Tower's estimates POSITIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • GTC: prices EUR 455m bond with an 8% yield POSITIVE • Piraeus Financial Holdings: prices EUR 600m AT1 bond POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: elections – forced cooperation should keep the economy strong • EME Macr...
HEADLINES: • Doosan Škoda Power: high steam pressure needs to cool off (downgraded to SELL) • Diagnostyka: testing positive (downgraded to HOLD) • Dom Development: 3Q25 – record sales, strong handovers, optimistic outlook POSITIVE • GTC: prices EUR 455m bond on 3 October POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 2Q25-26 preliminary earnings call NEUTRAL • European Oil and Gas Monthly: September 2025 – droning on about margins • 4iG: signs letter of intent with Axiom Space NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange...
EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • Pepco: lfl recovery continued in 4Q25, with Poland falling behind W. Europe; another EUR 50m buyback announced POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 earnings slightly lower than expected - adj. EBITDA +7% yoy to EUR 165m NEGATIVE • Theon International: wins another sizeable OCCAR contract POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • Eurowag: TA Associates completes GBP 56m ABB • PZU: new acting CEO appointed, pending PFSA approval NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: proposes an extraordinary DPS of RO...
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