OMV and ADNOC have reached an agreement on the terms of the Borealis / Borouge merger, and plan to acquire Nova Chemicals at the same time. The resulting entity will be called Borouge Group International (BGI). OMV will inject USD 1.6bn into BGI in order to maintain an equal shareholding of 46.94% with that of ADNOC. Following completion, management plans a secondary offering of Borouge to increase the free float, maintain its credit rating, and ensure inclusion in the MSCI indices. BGI will be ...
HEADLINES: • MedLife: and let the operational gearing begin (upgraded to BUY) • Enea: preliminary 4Q24 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Elm: 4Q24 conference call takeaways • 4iG: 4Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: February inflation performs better than the CBT’s projections • OMV: agrees on Borealis, Borouge and Nova chemicals deal with ADNOC POSITIVE • InPost: extension of available financing to PLN 4.2bn, from PLN 2.8bn POSITIVE • Wizz Air: February capac...
Following the 4Q24 earnings release, we have updated our 12M price target for MedLife to RON 7.1/share and upgraded our rating from Hold to BUY, with upside of c.20%. Last year was the inflection point for the EBITDA, growing 36% yoy. Below the EBITDA, these gains were largely offset by higher depreciation, interest expense and taxes; only c.20% of the upside made it to the bottom line. We expect that to reverse this year, on: 1) more modest growth in depreciation and taxes; and 2) a c.20% drop ...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
On Friday (28 February), 4iG reported its 4Q24 results, with sales of HUF 192.6bn (up 11% yoy, -2% below our estimate), EBITDA of HUF 61.0bn (up 22% yoy, 2% above our estimate) and a net loss of HUF 12.1bn (vs. HUF 15.9bn net loss in 4Q23 and our PLN 8.0m net loss forecast). The miss vs. our estimate on the bottom line resulted from higher-than-expected D&A, which reached HUF 58.4bn, vs. our HUF 44.7bn forecast. The net result was also harmed by the strong net finance costs hike yoy, driven by F...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24 February-2 March) • National Bank of Greece: 4Q24 results and 2025-27E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: 4Q24 bottom-line miss due mostly to lower non-interest income NEGATIVE • 4iG: 4Q24 results review – 22% yoy reported EBITDA increase, in line with our estimate; bottom-line miss, on D&A hike NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected; webcast takeaways NEGATIVE • Duna House: 4Q24 – FY results in line, lower DPS, but possible u...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: detailed 4Q24 results, revealing headwinds in Spain NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: small miss on 4Q24 results, but promises strong ROTE outlook for 2025E and adds another round of share buyback potential NEUTRAL • Richter: soft 4Q24 operating results NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected NEGATIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: earnings a small beat, bottom line boosted by negative goodwill and low tax rate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q24 pre...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: Green Deal and grievances (downgraded to SELL) • Teknosa: weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 February) • MOL: 4Q results and 2025E guidance • EME Strategy: FTSE GEIS March 2025 Semi-Annual Review • Bank of Cyprus: launch of share buyback programme • Benefit Systems: decides on PLN 1bn five-year bond issue NEUTRAL • 4iG: 4Q24E preview – 20% yoy reported EBITDA increase expected (due on 28 February) • Sphera Group: 12% yoy EBITDA de...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: knocked out, beat down, black and blue (stays BUY) • Graphisoft Park: 4Q24 results, and another strong year • MOL: 4Q24 results below expectations, posts a net loss NEGATIVE • NLB Group: bottom-line miss in 4Q24, but equity story remains intact NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 2024 EBITDA +7%, to EUR 1.1bn, as expected NEUTRAL • Akcansa: proposed dividend almost in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 4Q24E preview (due on 24 February) NEUTRAL • Gr...
We remain below the consensus for 4Q FY25E, driven by a weaker RASK and elevated costs, both the ex-fuel (CASKx) and the fuel CASK. We expect the FY25E CASKx to reach EUR 2.8-2.9/ASK, roughly 20% higher yoy, which is likely to push the consensus FY26E CASKx estimates higher as well. This, in turn, could weigh on the consensus FY26E net profit forecasts (we are c.50% below the consensus). Another negative surprise would be most unwelcome, after three consecutive quarters of earnings misses, not t...
HEADLINES: • Elm: secures several MoUs and partnerships during LEAP 2025 POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Türkiye macro: retail sales growth at 13.5% yoy in December 2024 • Titan Cement: enters South Asian market through new JV in India
HEADLINES: • MOL: there’s gain in the mundane (stays BUY) • Tofas: very weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q24 – EBITDAaL up 7% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2025E guidance in line with expectations POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 4Q24 results beat expectations POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call • Isbank: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Medicover: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call • 11 bit studios: delays release of The Alters NEGATIVE • ...
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