The lower supply pressure and turning interest rate cycle have helped CEE bank bonds outperform this year, particularly in the unsecured segment. The relative value metrics of CEE bank bonds remain enticing though versus European comparables, from a bank fundamental and instrument rating angle. We expect to see a further outperformance of CEE names.
The lower supply pressure and turning interest rate cycle have helped CEE bank bonds outperform this year, particularly in the unsecured segment. The relative value metrics of CEE bank bonds remain enticing though versus European comparables, from a bank fundamental and instrument rating angle. We expect to see a further outperformance of CEE names.
HEADLINES: • cyber_Folks: 2Q24 results review – 21% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 4% above our estimate POSITIVE • Sarantis: 1H24 EBITDA up 45% yoy, 8% ahead of our expectations; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Vercom: 2Q24 results review – 29% yoy EBITDA growth, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: reflections on the consequences of a weak Germany • Kazakhstan macro: Tokayev’s 2024 state-of-the-nation address • Türkiye macro: GDP underperforms in 2Q • 4iG: key takeaways from ...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
On Friday (30 August), 4iG reported its 2Q24 results, with sales of HUF 170.7bn (up 13% yoy, in line with our estimate), EBITDA of HUF 56.4bn (down 4% yoy, 3% below our estimate) and a net loss of HUF 11.5bn (vs. HUF 3.2bn in net profit in 2Q23 and our PLN 5.7m net loss forecast). Despite the EBITDA coming in 3% below our estimate, we see the outcome of the 2Q24 results as neutral, and we do not expect them to trigger any major market reaction.
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: solid bottom-line print in 2Q24 POSITIVE • Duna House: 2Q24 – EBITDA up 40% yoy in Italy POSITIVE • 4iG: 2Q24 results review – 4% yoy drop in reported EBITDA NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: key takeaways from the 1H24 conference call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (25 August-1 September) • Mo-BRUK: Public Procurement Office (KIO) rejects MBR’s appeal regarding tender in Szczecin NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 1H24E preview – 34% yoy EBITDA growth expected, on Stella and or...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: awaiting a NII inflection point (stays BUY) • MONETA Money Bank: valuation prices in higher ROE and strong yield (stays HOLD) • Ten Square Games: 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA 16% above our forecast; TEN confirms mom bookings recovery in July POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: new tenders for ecological bombs decommissioning on the market NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q24E results previe...
We keep MONETA Money Bank as a HOLD, and set our 12M price target (PT) at CZK 116.2/share (up from CZK 90.1/share). We consider MONETA a solid dividend payer, and its 9%+ yield is responsible for the majority of the return that we see for investors in the next 12 months. Its high single-digit dividend yield remains the key investment angle for us and a reason we remain HOLDers of the bank, amid its relatively high valuation vs. its regional banking peers. The growth strategy guided by management...
We keep Komercni Banka as a BUY, and we set our updated 12M price target (PT) at CZK 959/share, 26% upside. We see the c.11% annual dividend yield, persisting over the next two years, as the key attraction, which limits the downside, at the same time, in this volatile market environment. On top of this, we see our current 2024E forecasts as being on the conservative side and yielding some upside risk, if management delivers on its 2024E guidance, especially with respect to the NII turnaround. De...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 2Q24 – steady results, guidance reviewed slightly upwards • DIGI Communications: 2Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA up 16% yoy, 1% above our estimate POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q24 results review – EBITDA up 40% yoy, 7% above our estimate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 2Q24 results NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q24 – RASK (up 4% yoy) ahead of our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: erratum • Georgia Capital: takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • DataWa...
A director at Moneta Money Bank bought 4,878 shares at 104.600CZK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: slower growth on the horizon (stays HOLD) • Wizz Air: 1Q FY25 – a miss, and FY guidance reviewed down NEGATIVE • mBank: posts solid 2Q24 results; evolution of the CHF mortgage saga a key catalyst NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24 results – slight miss • BRD-GSG: small miss on 2Q24 bottom line, but good dynamics in loan book development NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q24 highlights – in line in 2Q24, but trends indicate upside for full-year NI estimate • Euroba...
HEADLINES: • Georgian Banks: from Georgia to the region (Bank of Georgia and TBC Bank stay BUY) • MONETA Money Bank: 2Q24 results in line with expectations, on track to deliver its FY24E guidance NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: a miss in 2Q24, -5% lfl at Biedronka; price war continues; weak guidance for 2H24E NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 2Q24E preview – 15% yoy decline in net profit expected (due on 27 August)
HEADLINES: • Polish IT: CVC and Filipiak family plan to announce tender for 34.81% stake in Comarch, at PLN 315.4/share POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – budget correction phase not over • Bank Pekao: lowers guidance on cost of credit holidays extension NEUTRAL • Borouge: 2Q24E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24E preview (due on 1 August) • Erste Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 2 August) • CD Projekt: 2Q24E EBITDA up 57% yoy, but down 25% qoq (due on 28 August) • ...
HEADLINES: Georgia macro: EU halts accession negotiations Kruk: 2Q24 trading update points to continuation of strong recoveries trends and high investments POSITIVE Wizz Air: Hungary may cancel special tax on airlines, but may introduce fines for delayed and cancelled flights NEUTRAL Turkish Airlines: flies 38% more ASK in 2Q24 vs. 2Q19 NEUTRAL Pegasus Airlines: 2Q24 ASK 53% above 2Q19 levels, international ASK 77% higher NEUTRAL Bank Pekao: finally has a new CEO POSITIVE Mo-BRUK: interview with...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) results – EBITDA down 12% yoy, 11% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: giving credit where credit is due, but keep realistic lags in mind • PKO BP: partial resolutions of AGM, dividend approved, AGM paused • Poland macro: CPI well-behaved, wage growth still soaring • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q24 CHF mortgage saga charges of PLN 1,109m NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: calls to improve Air Traffic Control in Europe in wake of delays NEGATIVE • Public Power Cor...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
• EMEA airlines: margin descent commencing? (Wizz Air stays BUY; Aegean Airlines, Pegasus Airlines and Turkish Airlines stay HOLDs); • Akcansa: 1Q24 financial results review; • 4iG: 1Q24 review – solid operating results, with 31% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth; net loss reported due to FX and interest
This morning (31 May), 4iG reported its 1Q24 results, with solid yoy expansions in sales, to HUF 157.7bn (up 37% yoy, in line with our estimate) and the EBITDA, to HUF 54.1bn (up 49% yoy, in line with our estimate), and a net loss of HUF 16.7bn (vs. HUF 0.1bn in net profit in 1Q23 and our PLN 15.1m net loss forecast). We see the results as neutral, as they are broadly in line with our expectations (we note that the company is in the middle of a business transformation, which is causing a major d...
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