GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Takeaways from Shanghai Auto Show 2025. 1Q25 results review for BYD, GWM and GAC. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Consumer: Politburo meeting: Emphasising income improvement and service consumption; prefer consumer companies with strong cost control and domestic focus. Results BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$397.00/Target: HK$510.00): 1Q25: Earnings double yoy, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$510.00. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BU...
1Q25: Below Expectations; Cost Pressure In Near Term CTOS’ 1Q25 core net profit came in at RM18.5m (-13% yoy, -43% qoq), accounting for 15% of our and consensus expectations. While 1Q is seasonally weaker, we view the results as below expectations due to higher-than-expected operational cost. Although management reiterated its 2025 internal earnings target of RM118m-123m, we revise our 2025/26 forecasts lower by 12%/6% respectively, adopting a more cautious stance. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower...
FY24: Within Expectations; Attractive Risk-reward Profile CTOS’ 4Q24 core net profit came in at RM32.1m (+14% yoy, +14% qoq), driven by stronger associate contribution, in line with our and consensus expectations. While management has revised its 2025 internal earnings target to RM118m-123m (from RM125m-130m), we still see a favourable risk-reward profile at this stage due to the recent share price retracement. We downgrade 2025 earnings by 6%, in line with the guidance. Maintain BUY with a lowe...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
3Q24: Within Expectation; Favourable Risk-Reward Profile While CTOS’ 9M24 core net profit only made up 67% of our full-year estimate, we deem the results within expectations, as we anticipate a sequentially stronger 4Q24 driven by stronger KA and associate contributions. While management has revised its 2025 internal target to RM125m-130m (from RM150m-160m), we see a favourable risk-reward profile at this stage. We downgrade 2025 earnings by 15% in line with the guidance. Upgrade to BUY with a h...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Channel checks and observations of Shanghai primary market. INDONESIA Update Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp4,970/Target: Rp6,000): Should be able to cope with intense competition. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation: MPOB’s Oct 24 data showed a slow inventory rebuild due to higher exports and declining production. Results CTOS Digital (CTOS MK/BUY/RM1.14/Target: RM1.51): 3Q24: Results within expectations. While management has revised its internal guidance for 2025, w...
2Q24: Results Impacted By Project Delays; 2024 Earnings Downgraded CTOS’ 2Q24 core net profit of RM26.0m came in below our expectations, mainly reflecting the deferment of several key accounts’ projects, lower contribution from associate JurisTech, and the impact of festive seasons. Management has revised down the internal earnings target due to higher sales and marketing costs and lower associate income in 2H24. Downgrade 2024 earnings by 11%. Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of RM1.36.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
1Q24: A Slow Start Dragged By Seasonality And Delayed Projects CTOS’ 1Q24 core net profit of RM21.3m arrived below our expectations, mainly reflecting the deferment of several key accounts’ projects, a lower contribution from associate JurisTech, and the impact of the festive seasons. Nevertheless, management alluded that this earnings shortfall will be reversed in subsequent quarters, and remains confident on delivering a 20-25% yoy net profit growth in 2024. Downgrade to HOLD following the rec...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: From surviving to thriving. Hong Kong Property: Expect normalised primary transactions and continued weakness of retail sales in May; watch for possible policy support. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$83.35/Target: HK$99.60): Optimistic on order growth in 2024; margin expansion a key driver. INDONESIA Results Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ/HOLD/Rp1,445/Target: Rp1,500): 1Q24: Excellent SG&A management results in double-digit NPAT growth. Mitra...
Hysteria Over Litigations Unwarranted Following the recent unfavourable ruling in a legal dispute, CTOS’ share price plunged as much as 27% on concerns that the group may no longer be able to formulate credit scores. Nevertheless, management reassured investors that this will not impede the group’s daily operations, and they have solid grounds to win an appeal against the High Court’s ruling. Upgrade to BUY following the recent share price action, with an unchanged target price of RM1.52.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV market share hits record of 48% on price slashes. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELL: XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$62.25/Target: HK$101.00): 2023: Delivering strong VONB growth. KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/HOLD/HK$37.95/Target: HK$39.00): 4Q23: Strong top-line beat; expecting lukewarm recovery in 1Q24. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA ASEAN Gems Conference Highlights Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp840/Targ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. Sector Automobile: Weekly: EV sales remain lukewarm in the fourth week of 2024. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Update Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH/BUY/Rmb273.19/Target: Rmb360.00): Acquires 21.12% stake in APT Medical; embracing tremendous business opportu...
4Q23: Largely In line; Awaiting Better Catalysts CTOS’ 4Q23 core net profit of RM28.3m is largely in line, fuelled by a yoy improvement in its Malaysia operations as momentum ramps up across all three business segments, coupled with stronger associate contributions. While we expect CTOS to continue charting earnings growth driven by better services penetration, customer base expansion and synergies with associates, we retain our view that these have been fairly priced into its current share pric...
3Q23: Results Within Expectations; Growth Adequately Priced In CTOS’ 3Q23 core net profit of RM29.2m was largely in line, fueled by yoy improving Malaysia operations as momentum ramps up across all three business segments, and stronger associate contribution. While we anticipate CTOS to continue charting earnings growth driven by better services penetration, customer base expansion and synergies with associates, we maintain our view that these have been fairly priced in. Maintain HOLD. Target pr...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: 3Q23 results broadly in line; bottom line turned around in the seasonal peak quarter. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.90): 3Q23: In line; 3Q23 wind power utilisation hours down 34 hours yoy. Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/HOLD/HK$3.76/Target: HK$4.00): 3Q23: Below expectations; 3Q23 WTG sales growth slows to +6.0% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$10.82/Target: HK$13.50): 3Q23: Earnings tripl...
Continuing Business Expansion Blitz CTOS continues to strengthen its presence in the ASEAN credit bureau industry with the group’s recent acquisitions of two leading alternative data firms. The two firms have strong exposure in credit and telco scoring within Indonesia and the Philippines respectively. We think these synergistic acquisitions will allow CTOS to spice up its regional ecosystem and capture more market share. We raised our 2024-25 earnings by 2-3%. Maintain HOLD with a higher target...
GREATER CHINA Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$301.20/Target: HK$380.00): August headline ADT sluggish. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Wilton Makmur Indonesia (SQMI IJ/NOT RATED/Rp52): A gold producer with turnaround potential as it starts producing bullion. MALAYSIA Sector Building Materials: 2Q23 results within expectations. HUME provides near-term earnings visibility with rising cement prices and easing coal prices. Update CTOS Digital (CTOS MK/HOLD/RM1.42/Target: ...
2Q23: Results In Line; Earnings Growth Reasonably Priced In 2Q23 core net profit of RM25.5m was within expectations, reflecting stronger Malaysia operations yoy as momentum ramps up across all three business segments, coupled with a better associate contribution. While we anticipate CTOS to continue charting earnings growth driven by better services penetration, customer base expansion and synergies with associates, we maintain our view that these have been fairly priced in in its current share ...
GREATER CHINA Initiation Coverage China Server: AI investment series: Diving into opportunities in the server industry. Sector Automobile: Weekly: Passenger EV sales up 59% yoy/21% wow over 17-23 July, in line. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. INDONESIA Results Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/BUY/Rp8,000.00/Target: Rp9,785.00): 2Q23: Lower qoq and yoy but still within our expectations. Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/HOLD/Rp650/Target: Rp680): 2Q23: Profit warning issued for the rest of ...
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