In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in June 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on deve...
For China’s property sector, Jun 25 preliminary data pointed to weakening sales, while the land market saw a clearer divergence. Weakened fundamentals may raise hopes of policy support in the July Politburo meeting. In Hong Kong, with the rental index in May 25 only 2.4% lower than the peak in Aug 19, we see signs of a stabilisation of property prices. However, a rebound in HIBOR may test the strength of sales recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for both sectors with a preference for China property...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Property Weakening sales in China has raised hopes of policy support in July; rebound in HIBOR will test the strength of recovery in Hong Kong property sales. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp6,000) 5M25: Steady earnings amid NIM pressure. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas ...
We visited Deep Water Pavilia and LA MONTAGNE, both of which have seen encouraging sales in 2025, especially for entry-level units, which now yield 3.2-3.7%. The successful sale of Deep Water Pavilia is also attributable to a higher supply of entry-level units and conservative pricing on larger ones. We see positive destocking progress in Hong Kong, and if this trend continues, The Southside may be among the first areas to stabilise and recover price. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...
In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in May 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on devel...
In May 25, new home and second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities remain relatively resilient. We visited four residential projects in Shanghai and observed: a) better sales of upgrading units, b) price stabilisation, and c) a challenging margin outlook. In Hong Kong, with the sharp decline of 1M HIBOR being a major positive development, RVD’s latest rental yields data points to improved return of smaller units. We expect higher yields into the school admission season. Maintain sector ratings an...
In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in April 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
The Asia Trade Book for April 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.
In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
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