With ARO Drilling extensions and two West Africa jobs (DS-10 and DS-15), Valaris is progressing well in building visibility for 2027, the first year set to have proper earnings as 2025–2026e will likely be affected by rig market challenges and idle time. On top of the recently announced drillship jobs, Valaris seems well placed to build additional backlog in Nigeria and Egypt, for deepwater opportunities with startup in 2026/27. In sum, we believe its cash flow story remains on the horizon, whil...
With recent energy markets uncertainty and 2025–2026 rig market challenges remaining, idle time and gaps between contracts have left near-term earnings looking uninspiring. On the positive side, we see the company as well placed for several deepwater jobs with startup in 2026e, which could help build visibility for 2027. Hence, its cash flow story remains on the horizon, while we consider earnings improvements key to closing the NAV gap and for intrinsic values to crystallise. We reiterate our B...
Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand...
Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...
Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...
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