ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 16/01/2025

Fastned : Lower operational EBITDA margin needs explanation

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN AMRO: 4Q Pre-close statement points to a good quarter. Fastned: 4Q24 trading update – 2025 downgrade. KPN: ACM digs into backbook difference with frontbook, will try to encourage churn

Fastned: good pace in Q4, guidance adjusted for FY25

Fastned has reported its Q4 2024 key metrics and confirmed FY25 guidance for the number of operating stations. Q4 sales came in at EUR26.6m, pointing to EUR86.3m for FY24 (-2% vs cons. at EUR88m and BGe at EUR89m). Fastned posted a gross margin of 77.4% in Q4 (79.4% for FY24, +0.9ppt vs cons. -0.6p

Morning Notes : FAST NA, ECMPA NA

: FAST NA, ECMPA NA

Fastned 4Q24 Results, utilization trend positive, slightly lower guida...

4Q24 results confirmed the trends from 1H24. Sales growth of 39.1% came slightly below our expectation, but gross margin came above our expectation at 76.6%. The GM% acceleration should be a relief as competition remains fierce, but their focus on high traffic locations shows pricing power. The Kwh per station are also increasing nicely in its core regions, which also helps margins. With 346 operational stations, Fastned realised its outlook of 335-350 stations FY24-end. That is just below our ...

Eurocommercial Properties Let's go to the mall everybody

In this note we initiate coverage on Eurocommercial with a EUR 25.0 target price and an accumulate recommendation. Eurocommercial will have positive rent reversion and a flat cost of debt which results in a 2.5% EPS 3y CAGR. Eurocommercial trades at 9.1x spot EPRA EPS and 8.0% dividend yield while outperforming peers in terms of real estate KPI's. Therefore the current share price is undemanding.

Benelux Morning Notes

Ackermans & van Haaren: Nextensa might aim for ‘Proximus Towers' landmark project. D'Ieteren: Auto CEO sees Belgian new car market at 420k in 2025, down 6% YoY. Fastned: Preview of 4Q24 trading update. Proximus: HQ sale likely at price materially lower than expected. Randstad: 4Q24F results due 12 Feb, consensus released, negative earnings momentum. WDP: Sizeable acquisition in Belgium

ODDO : La baisse des taux d’intérêt favorise l’immobilier : nos top pi...

Le maintien d’un environnement baissier des taux d’intérêt devrait être porteur pour le secteur immobilier en 2025 et lui permettre de continuer à surperformer. Dans ce contexte, nous privilégions le commerce et le résidentiel allemand , qualifiés de «safe haven» et plus spécifiquement Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing pour un potentiel moyen de +30%. Elles sont les plus à même pour nous d’exécuter leur stratégie de croissance / repositionnement. Nous abaisson...

ODDO : Interest rate winds favor real estate: Our top picks for 2025

An environment of further interest rate decline is set to underpin the real estate sector in 2025 and see it continue to outperform. On this basis, we prefer retail and the German residential market, which are seen as safe havens, more specifically Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing for an average upside of +30%. They are the best positioned, as we see it, to execute their growth/repositioning strategies. We have downgraded Branicks, Cofinimmo, Icade and Patr...

Benelux Morning Notes

Avantium: Christmas (Round) Robin. dsm-firmenich: A lot of hot air about Bovaer®. Fastned: JV confirmed with Places of London. Shell: JV with Equinor on UKCS. Staffing: Belgium staffing, French govt falls - less growth but fiscal policy less restrictive?

Fastned/Good update, uncertainty remains/HOLD

Fastned reported a 4Q23 trading update in October where revenue and gross profit came in higher vs our estimates. As a result, we make small upward revisions to our forecasts. We keep our HOLD rating but raise our target price to €20.5 per share (from €17.50 previously).

Eurocommercial Properties/Model update/BUY

Solid 9M24 results were ahead of our estimates and we raise our bottom-line forecast to the higher end of the guidance range for 2024 (up 2.4% YoY). We also fine tune our 2025 numbers to 1.7% YoY top line growth (we expect the organic trend to normalise) and 5.0% bottom line (EPS) growth. We confirm our positive view, noting strong asset selection and solid operations at a very appealing valuation. The stock now trades at a 41.8% discount to NTA, almost double the retail sector average (22.9%). ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/08/2024

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ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 08/11/2024

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EuroCommercial : Q3 2024 results: a slightly higher FY2024 guidance on...

>Outlook increased; underlying metrics remain strong as expected - FY2024 guidance of €2.35 to €2.40 Direct investment result per share, today stated to be at the upper end of this earlier stated guidance .Like-for-like rental growth of +3.8% (H1 2024: 4.5%), mainly due to rental indexation and higher turnover rent.Rent uplifts from renewals were +4.0% (H1 2024: 2.5%), supported by like-for-like retailer sales of +2.3% (H1 2024: +1.8%) and footfall up +1.2% ...