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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Fugro: €50m share buyback. IBA: To equip Kazakhstan's first private radiopharmacy complex with Cyclone KIUBE 300. Retail Estates: Caution on tenants and consumers

Kristof Samoy
  • Kristof Samoy

Fugro Announcing €50m SBB

Fugro announced it will implement a share buyback programme for an amount of € 50m. The programme will result in a reduction of the company's share capital by cancelling all shares acquired through the repurchase programme, also offsetting dilution from the recently matured convertible bonds. A welcome announcement following the unwarranted sell off in the name. Buy and €28.5 TP reiterated.

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update November 2024 – Adding Azelis – Removing ...

With 2 changes in our Dynamic Top Pick list (we add Azelis and we remove Solvay) we maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks have finally started. The Trump election victory in the US does not bode well for European stocks as he favours a protectionist course. Although industrial companies with a US base could actually benefit. Cleantech names with exposure to the US could also suffer (unless owned by E.Musk). We expect the US ...

Kristof Samoy
  • Kristof Samoy

Fugro Earnings miss and sentiment triggered unwarranted sell off

After spoiling the markets with 8 quarters of appealing topline growth, Fugro disappointed with stalling revenues over 3Q24. The silver lining was that Fugro managed to post margins exceeding expectations and that the backlog discounted 16.8% growth. In our view, the conservative guidance and consecutive earnings beats over the past quarters led to some ambitious estimates in the market ultimately resulting in a (sizeable) earnings miss. Combined with the uncertainty over the US elections and im...

Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Morning Notes : ABI BB, AD NA, ATEB BB, FUR NA, IBAB BB, JEN BB, SOLB ...

: ABI BB, AD NA, ATEB BB, FUR NA, IBAB BB, JEN BB, SOLB BB, AZE BB, MAAT FP, CTPNV NA, DEME BB

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

Fugro : Taking profit after 4 years of outperformance

>Feedback analyst conference call - Fugro’s Q3 conference call was hosted by CEO Mark Heine and CFO Barbara Geelen. Below you can find the key topics discussed:Outlook 2024. Fugro guides for mid single digit revenue growth in 2024 (9M 4.2%; Q3 -0.7%) and EBIT margin of 13%. CEO indicates he expects top-line growth to be back in Q4, this after Q3 of -0.7% and this although Q4 backlog is flat y-o-y. Hard data thus more hinting towards low single digit growth than m...

Kristof Samoy
  • Kristof Samoy

Fugro Feedback 3Q conf call

This morning Fugro published results which came in below our expectations especially at the topline level (see our FRN earlier today). BB/Refinitiv did not provide reliable quarterly CSS forecasts nor did the company collect one. We heard about 3Q24 EBITDA forecasts north of €160m well above our €145m estimate. Clearly the topline evolution -as main driver of profit growth- was disappointing but the company was still able to post nice margins even when the Americas (-20.9%) and Middle-East&India...

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

Fugro : Now also affected by US & Middle East tensions

>Q3 revenues 12% below expectation, EBIT 23% below - Revenues in 24Q3 have come in 2.9% lower than a year ago at € 596.5m (comparable down 0.7%), and just slightly higher than Q2 (€ 587.9m), where the market and us were expecting the usual q-o-q +5-10%, implying revenues were 12% lower than our expectation. Marine was comparable still up 0.3% up to € 472.1m, but Land down 4.2% to € 124.3m, both missing our forecasts by 12%.Regional markets. Key explaining factors...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Alfen: Preview – expect 3Q to be light compared to 4Q. BAM: Preview - it doesn't feel that good. Brunel International: 3Q24 results: 4% EBIT miss – weak outlook. Fugro: Unexpected sales decline in US and Middle East. Kinepolis: US Peer Cinemark 3Q24 results beat on strong spending. Universal Music Group: 3Q24 reasonable, 2H24 €400m M&A cash out will hurt

Kristof Samoy
  • Kristof Samoy

Fugro 3Q earnings miss triggered by Middle-East and US activities

Fugro posted a somewhat disappointing set of 3Q24 figures showing overall comparable revenue falling -0.7% to €597m arguably on strong comps but well below our €664m forecast. EBIT landed at €99m below our €103m estimate. No reliable quarterly consensus was available. The order backlog landed at €1686m discounting 16.8% comparable growth. Good revenue growth in Europe (+9.4%) and APAC (+37.6%) was offset by the America's (-20.9%) and Middle-East (-41.8%).

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: Good top line, portfolio stabilising, guidance marginally revised upward. Ageas: China Taiping Life 3Q Solvency remains strong. ASM: 3Q24 results – That's a relief - FY25 guide narrowed upwards. Belgian Telecoms: Peer Telenet 3Q24 results, still losing shares. Fugro: Focus on EBITDA and orderbook. GBL: Kicking off its trainers and cashing in €0.6bn. Colruyt: To operate 100 OKay City stores by 2032F. Heijmans: Preview - Progressing well. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 3Q24 show still weak pe...

Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update October 2024 – Adding NN Group

We maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated expectations for interest rate cuts by central banks will finally come to pass. The election fever in the US is reaching boiling point and the conversations are becoming more polarised than before. Also corporate profit growth in Europe slows and the French elections have cast a negative spell. In Germany by-elections in the Eastern part showed a shift to extreme right and left that will make budget decisions even more ...

David Vagman ... (+17)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Hans D’Haese
  • Jason Kalamboussis
  • Javier Campos Unda
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA
  • Maxime Stranart
  • Quirijn Mulder
  • Reg Watson
  • CFA
  • Stijn Demeester
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

ING Benelux Favourites/ASM, ASR, D'Ieteren, EVS, Fugro, Randstad, SBM ...

We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen our ING Benelux coverage universe on some key investment themes that are topical and which could affect earnings potential and thus a stock's share price performance: (1) interest rate/refinancing opportunity in a lower rates environment; (2)...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ING Benelux Conference London Alfen Fugro Renewi Other company news D'Ieteren: €4bn dividend, family shareholder reorganization, good results Euronext: Continued Momentum Staffing: French staffing: underlying July trend weak; August outlook slightly better Events Calendar

Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update September 2024 –Cofinimmo & Kinepolis in;...

In this September update of our Dynamic Top Pick List we make 4 changes. •We include Cofinimmo in our Dynamic Top Pick List after our recent upgrade from Accumulate to Buy. We expect the name to outperform in a decreasing interest rate environment given its relatively high leverage and cheap valuation. We also believe the risk of a dilutive equity raise eased when the FY24 capex decreased from € 320m to € 250m. The management stays disciplined in its capex program and continues to focus on asse...

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