reports
- Koray Pamir
View on Regulated Tariff Changes
Regulated electricity tariffs have been revised effective April 5, 2025: Residential tariffs have increased by 25.0% m/m, while industrial tariffs rose by 10.0% m/m. Tariffs for agricultural use have been adjusted upward by 12.4% m/m, as per tariffs prepared by the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) and published in the Official Gazette. These tariff revisions are likely to remain in effect for a standard three-month period. Key details and implications are as follows: • Additionally, the...
Moody's Ratings withdraws Koc Holding's ratings
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has withdrawn all credit ratings of Koc Holding A.S. (Koc Holding), including the Ba3 corporate family rating, Ba3-PD probability of default rating and the Ba3 rating on the company's $750 million senior unsecured notes due in March 2025. The outlook prior to withdrawal was...
Koc Holding: 1 director
A director at Koc Holding bought 2,369,669 shares at 138.270TRY and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Erol Danis
- Koray Pamir
Model Portfolio Update
Including Sabanci Holding to our model portfolio, while removing Turkish Airlines: We are including Sabanci Holding to our model portfolio, while removing Turkish Airlines. Sabanci Holding: We are including Sabanci Holding to our model portfolio. Sabanci shares have underperformed the BIST-100 by 7% and one of its main valuation components (40.75% stake in Akbank, 31% of CNAV) by 20% YTD, with its discount to CNAV deteriorating by c. 6 pps to 43% vs. the respective YTD, three- and 10-year aver...
- Koray Pamir
Koc Holding
12-month TP up 57%, to TL180/share; Buy maintained: We raise our TP for Koc Holding (Koc) by 57%, to TL180/share and re-iterate our Buy rating. The TP revision was driven by 1) incorporation of an updated macro deck; 2) a lower discount to Koc’s target NAV (TNAV) by 5pps, to 20%, considering the improved risk perception regarding Turkey due to the rapid improvement in the country’s CDs; 3) updated valuation and estimates for listed subsidiaries, such as Tupras, Aygaz, Autos, and Arcelik, followi...
- Koray Pamir
Sabanci Holding - NAV Update & 2Q Results Review
12-month TP up by 35%, to TL72.3/share; maintain Buy: We are increasing our 12M TP for Sabanci Holding (Sabanci) by 35%, to TL72.3/share, implying 21% potential upside on a 12-month horizon. The TP revision is primarily based on 1) incorporation of an updated macro deck; 2) a lower discount to Sabanci’s target NAV (TNAV) by 5pps, to 25%, considering the improved risk perception regarding Turkey related to the rapid improvement in Turkey’s CDs; 3) updated valuation and estimates for Enerjisa , an...
- Erol Danis
- Koray Pamir
Top Picks Portfolio
Excluding Koc Holding from our model portfolio: We are excluding Koc Holding from our model portfolio. Shares have outperformed the BIST-100 by 33% and returned 118% in USD since its inclusion on January 6, 2022. Bulk of the alpha vs. the index was led by the strength of its recent share performance with respective YTD and one-week outperformances of 36% and 17% and respective USD returns of 13% and 27% in USD in the interim. Substantial improvement in Koc’s discount to current NAV had been on...
- Koray Pamir
Koc Holding
Increasing 12M TP by 16%, to TL115.0/share, implying 43% potential 12M upside: We are increasing our 12-month TP for Koc Holding (Koc) by 16%, to TL115.0/share, implying 43% potential upside on 12M horizon. Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on Koc which continues to be a constituent of our model portfolio. The upward TP revision is primarily driven by a mechanical NAV update, incorporating updated macro estimates, a valuation update of unlisted assets and updated TPs for listed subsidiari...
Haci Omer Sabanci Holding A.S.: 1 director
A director at Haci Omer Sabanci Holding A.S. bought 5,225,000 shares at 44.755TRY and the significance rating of the trade was 97/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the la...
- Koray Pamir
Koc Holding
Increasing 12M TP by 19% to TL77.7/sh, implying 30% potential upside: We are increasing our 12M TP for Koc Holding (“Koc”) by 19% to TL77.7/sh, implying 30% potential upside. The upward TP revision is primarily driven by a mechanical NAV update, incorporating updated macro estimates, and updated TPs for subsidiaries post 3Q, with revisions in the target valuation of Yapi Kredi and Tupras being the largest contributors of the TP revision in Koc. We continue to apply a 20% holding discount to it...
- Koray Pamir
Sabanci Holding
Increasing 12M TP up by 30% to TRY40.90/sh, Maintain Buy: We are increasing our 12M TP for Sabanci Holding (“Sabanci”) by 30% to TRY40.90/sh, implying 22% potential upside. The upward TP revision is primarily driven by post 3Q TP updates for various subsidiaries, with changes in Akbank and Enerjisa Enerji Dagitim accounting for c.50% and c.10% of the change in Sabanci’s target price; with the remainder led primarily marking to market the valuation of the listed subsidiaries not under our cover...
Turkey - Conglomerates - Net Asset Value Discounts
According to the last closing on August 26th, 2022; • KCHOL NAV discount has been 38%, 24 ppt below its 5Y median discount of 14%. KCHOL trades at 34% discount to its listed assets. • SAHOL NAV discount has been 30%, 6 ppt above its 5Y median discount of 36%. SAHOL trades at 11% discount to its listed assets. • AGHOL NAV discount has been 41%, 10 ppt below 3Y median discount of 31%. AGHOL trades at 44% discount to its listed assets.
- Koray Pamir
Koc Holding
Increasing 12M TP by 12% to TL65.30/sh, implying 52% potential upside: We have increased our 12M TP for Koc up 12% to TL65.30/sh, implying 52% potential upside. The upward TP revision is primarily driven by a mechanical NAV update, incorporating updated macro estimates and updated TPs for subsidiaries (and unlisted assets) post 2Q. We continue to apply a 20% holding discount to Koc’s target NAV (“TNAV”) vs. its spot discount of 36% and its five-year average discount of 18%. In a nutshell, we rei...
Turkey - Conglomerates - Net Asset Value Discounts
According to the last closing on August 12th, 2022; ·KCHOL NAV discount has been 39%, 25 ppt below its 5Y median discount of 14%. KCHOL trades at 36% discount to its listed assets. ·SAHOL NAV discount has been 21%, 15 ppt above its 5Y median discount of 36%. SAHOL trades at 6% discount to its listed assets. ·AGHOL NAV discount has been 29%, only 1 ppt above 3Y median discount of 30%. AGHOL trades at 35% discount to its listed assets.
- Koray Pamir
Sabanci Holding
Increasing 12M TP by 30% to TRY31.50/sh, implying 33% upside potential: We are increasing our 12M TP for Sabanci Holding (“Sabanci”) by 30% to TRY31.50/sh, implying 33% potential upside. The upward TP revision is primarily driven by a mechanical NAV update, incorporating updated macro estimates and the updated TPs for subsidiaries (particularly Enerjisa Uretim). We continue to apply a 30% holding discount to Sabanci’s target NAV (“TNAV”) vs. its spot discount of 34% and its five-year average dis...
Turkey - Conglomerates - Net Asset Value Discounts
According to the last closing on August 5th, 2022; • KCHOL NAV discount has been 39%, 25 ppt below its 5Y median discount of 14%. KCHOL trades at 35% discount to its listed assets. • SAHOL NAV discount has been 25%, 11 ppt above its 5Y median discount of 36%. SAHOL trades at 11% discount to its listed assets. • AGHOL NAV discount has been 26%, 4 ppt above 3Y median discount of 30%. AGHOL trades at 32% discount to its listed assets.
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