reports
- Olfa Taamallah
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 07/03/2024
In June, European equities were buffeted by the political risk in France and the downturn in business climate indicators (PMI), which erased the effect of the ECB's first, widely anticipated, rate cut and the continuing upward revision of the consensus. French indices and stocks - in particular small caps - were the ones that gave up the most ground. In sector terms, within the Stoxx 600, technology, healthcare and media were the only sectors to advance, while real estate, banks, basi...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 03/07/2024
En juin, les actions européennes ont pâti du risque politique français et du fléchissement des indicateurs de climat des affaires (PMI) qui ont effacé l’effet de la 1ère baisse des taux de la BCE, largement anticipée, et la poursuite de la révision à la hausse du consensus. Les indices et valeurs françaises – en particulier small caps - sont celles qui ont le plus reculé. En termes sectoriels, sur le Stoxx 600, la technologie, la santé et les médias ont été les seuls secteurs à progre...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : H1 2024 preview - Developments and aftermarket off...
>A timorous start to the year for Falcon - For H1 2024 earnings, which are due for publication on 23 July after market close, we forecast EBIT of € 227m for sales of € 2,666m (+16.2%), i.e. a margin of 8.5% (+194bp). For the civil segment, we anticipate the delivery of just 12 Falcon, of which two 6X. As a reminder, the group has set a target for 35 deliveries in FY 2024, in line with our expectations, after 26 in FY 2023. Beyond the contribution from the volume effec...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : Preview S1 2024 – Développements et après-vente co...
>Un début d’exercice timide pour Falcon - Pour le S1 2024 qui sera publié le 23 juillet après clôture, nous modélisons un EBIT de 227 M€ pour un CA de 2 666 M€ (+16.2%), soit une marge de 8.5% (+194pb). Sur le segment civil, nous attendons la livraison de seulement 12 Falcon dont deux 6X. La société a fixé un objectif de 35 livraisons en 2024, en ligne avec notre attente, après 26 en 2023. Au-delà de l’apport de l’effet volume (3 appareils supplémentaires par rapport ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/11/2024
Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
- Bruno Cavalier
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 11/03/2024
Our 8th TMT Forum, held again in virtual format, was attended by 46 listed companies and around 399 investors (+30%). The tone was generally upbeat, with key markets still showing positive momentum, notably in advertising. For semiconductors, the exposure to AI is positive, the rest is more muted. In IT Services, business has remained weak QTD. Nevertheless, clients are constructive and committed to their digital transformation. On telecoms, there was confirmation most markets are ret...
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
LEG LEG IMMOBILIEN AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : No re-rating without signs of a tangible improveme...
>The supply chain remains convalescent and regulators more demanding - The magnitude of the difference between deliveries executed in FY 2023 and the initial target (9 Falcon and 2 Rafale) as well as caution on the FY 2024 target (35 Falcon, just in line with the initial target for FY 2023) demonstrates that the challenge of supply chain management remains intact. In particular, the group blames aerostructure suppliers, such as GKN Aerospace, Daher and Latécoère, as t...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : Pas de rerating sans signe d’amélioration tangible...
>Une supply chain encore convalescente et des régulateurs plus exigeants - L’ampleur de l’écart entre les livraisons effectivement réalisées en 2023 et l’objectif initial (9 Falcon et 2 Rafale) ainsi que la prudence de l’objectif 2024 (35 Falcon, seulement en ligne avec l’objectif initial de 2023) démontrent que le défi de la gestion de la supply chain reste entier. La société a en particulier pointé du doigt les fournisseurs d’aérostructures, à l’image de GKN Aerospa...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : 6.2% miss at EBIT level and cautious FY 2024 guida...
>6.2% miss at EBIT level but 6.7% beat at net level mainly driven by Thales’ contribution - FY 2023 adjusted operating profit came out 6.2% below street expectations at € 349m (ODDO BHF: € 368m, Css VA: € 372m) for sales of € 4,801m, down 30.7% y-o-y, showing a margin of 7.3% (-99bp) due to amortisation of fixed costs and a € 40m increase in profit-sharing and incentives and despite R&D spending slightly lower than our expectation (€ 483m vs € 500m). Deliveries detail...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : 6.2% miss at EBIT level and cautious FY 2024 guida...
>6.2% miss at EBIT level but 6.7% beat at net level mainly driven by Thales’ contribution - FY 2023 adjusted operating profit came out 6.2% below street expectations at € 349m (ODDO BHF: € 368m, Css VA: € 372m) for sales of € 4,801m, down 30.7% y-o-y, showing a margin of 7.3% (-99bp) due to amortisation of fixed costs and a € 40m increase in profit-sharing and incentives and despite R&D spending slightly lower than our expectation (€ 483m vs € 500m). Deliveries detail...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 01/19/2024
We initiate coverage on Elia Group with an Underperform recommendation and see short-term downside in the stock of 8-9%. Although the company is perfectly positioned to benefit from the required massive upgrades in European electricity grids, its government regulated returns (RoE to remain around 7.5%) in our view are too low to defend its premium valuation, especially in light of the funding requirements for its € 30+bn capex plan. We also have our doubts on the shareholder structure...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
HAL HAL TRUST
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 19/01/2024
We initiate coverage on Elia Group with an Underperform recommendation and see short-term downside in the stock of 8-9%. Although the company is perfectly positioned to benefit from the required massive upgrades in European electricity grids, its government regulated returns (RoE to remain around 7.5%) in our view are too low to defend its premium valuation, especially in light of the funding requirements for its € 30+bn capex plan. We also have our doubts on the shareholder structure...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
HAL HAL TRUST
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : FY 2023 preview – Financial investments and Thales...
>FY 2023: financial investments and Thales offset the decline in volumes - For FY 2023, we are expecting adjusted EBIT of € 368m on sales of € 4,964m (-28.4%, of which -10.3% for Falcon and -36.2% for defence), i.e. a margin of 7.4% (-85bp). Compared with our previous estimates, EBIT has been adjusted by almost -11%, to factor in notably a greater under-amortisation of fixed costs and a weighting of profit-sharing and incentives that we had underestimated. Following t...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : Preview FY 23 – Les placements financiers et Thale...
>FY 23 : les placements financiers et Thales compensent la baisse des volumes - Sur l’exercice 2023, nous tablons sur un EBIT Ajusté de 368 M€ pour un CA de 4 964 M€ (-28.4% dont -10.3% pour le Falcon et -36.2% pour la défense), soit une marge de 7.4% (-85 pb). Par rapport à nos précédentes estimations, l’EBIT a été ajusté de près de -11% notamment afin d’intégrer un plus fort sous-amortissement des coûts fixes et un poids de la participation et de l’intéressement que...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 01/15/2024
We host our 27th ODDO BHF Forum in Lyon in 11th and 12th January 2024 and virtually 15th and 16th January 2024. In total, 335 companies will be presenting. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of the company on day 2. - ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 15/01/2024
We host our 27th ODDO BHF Forum in Lyon in 11th and 12th January 2024 and virtually 15th and 16th January 2024. In total, 335 companies will be presenting. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of the company on day 2. - ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : A disappointing vintage in 2023
>2023 delivery targets missed in civil and military - Dassault Aviation announced the delivery of 13 Rafale (11 for France and 2 in export markets) as well as 26 Falcon for full year 2023. These are disappointing figures as they are short of the targets set by the group (respectively -2 for Rafale and -9 for Falcon) but also shy of the volumes delivered in 2022 (respectively -1 for Rafale and -6 for Falcon). We had recently reduced our estimates for Falcon to 26 units...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : Un cru 2023 décevant
>Objectifs de livraisons 2023 non atteints dans le civil comme dans le militaire - Dassault Aviation vient d’annoncer la livraison de 13 Rafale (11 pour la France et 2 à l’export) ainsi que 26 Falcon sur l’ensemble de l’exercice 2023. Ces chiffres sont décevants car ils ressortent en-deçà des objectifs fixés par la société (respectivement -2 Rafale et -9 Falcon) mais aussi en retrait par rapport aux volumes livrés en 2022 (respectivement -1 Rafale et -6 Falcon). Nous ...
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
Dassault Aviation : When the supply chains gets involved - Neutral vs ...
>Falcon’s ramp-up delayed by persistent tension in the supply chain - According to Cirium, just 20 Falcons had been delivered by the beginning of December which, in our view, leaves too great a workload for the group to get close to its target for 35 deliveries for this year. The main explanation resides in the still extremely disrupted supply chain since the group indicates that it has detected no improvement and continues to suffer shortages for numerous parts. Mo...
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