We revise our earnings forecasts and raise our target price for Bukalapak by 5%. Our new target price of IDR481 suggests 44% upside from the current share price. We reiterate our Buy recommendation. Earnings revision table (IDR mn) [/article-assets/body-E6nf6HLmLqFdLdPz38863PaUNhOvQYIvCg0Tfb2a.png] FCFF Valuation [/article-assets/body-2lCACZAKeO965NWYiprAmaFNNt9XnFrxeFFVdQGJ.png] Result Summary [/article-assets/body-P9X...
We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Bukalapak, with a target price of IDR456. This implies an upside of 62%. Bukalapak is reporting its Q2 results on 29 July – we expect the results to pave the way for EBITDA positivity in FY 23. SCALE ECONOMICS IMPROVING We envisage the scale economics for Bukalapak improving in both of its key segments, the Mitra platform and Marketplace services: * The Mitra platform provides small businesses in Indonesia with e-commerce access. Bukalapak operates an o...
This week's warning from Snap that “the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated” shook the Tech sector's foundations. The company expects its EBITDA this quarter to come in “below the low end” of its guidance range and the stock is down 43%. Some commentators are now fearing a Tech winter akin to the one following the dot.com collapse at the start of the century – it took over 17 years for the NASDAQ index to recover its March 2000 high, adjusting for in...
Most readers will know Gloria Gaynor’s hit “I Will Survive”. It hit the charts in 1978, which is before most fund managers were born, but shortly after two small companies called Microsoft and Apple Computers were formed. Fast forward 44 years and the lyrics could provide solace to investors, as they deal with the end of a tech love affair and a share price collapse. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 29% in six months, and some of its components have fared much worse than that. The FAANGs are dow...
We upgrade Indonesian e-commerce firm Bukalapak to Buy from Sell, with a new DCF-based target price of IDR456 (up from IDR298 previously). Bukalapak has lost 64% of its value since its IPO in August 2021 and we think it now offers deep value. We increase our FY22 and FY23 earnings forecasts for the firm, as we think its prospects should improve in light of its investment in Allo Bank and expansion into the groceries business. 5 KEY REASONS FOR THE UPGRADE 1) Higher earnings: We raise our earn...
The ravages of the Chinese tech crackdown have made even giants change track. Alibaba has just announced a ramp up of its share buyback program. A stock buyback is when a company buys back its own shares with its cash reserves. This one amounts to US$25bn (or 8% of the market capitalisation), and is Alibaba's second in less than a year. The move represents one of the largest share buybacks in China. It is also a rare event among the EM tech peer group also known as the Baby Amazons. These co...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just awarded an improved star rating to BUKALAPAK COM (ID), active in the Internet industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title receives an improved star rating and now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars. Given its market behaviour as risky, theScreener considers that these elements allowing slightly upgrading its general evaluation to Slightly Negative; the title, however, remains unattractive. As of the analysis date February 18, 2022, th...
In this article, we assess the segment of emerging markets tech populated by the e-commerce companies known as Baby Amazons. The Baby Amazon index has fallen sharply in 2022, down 10% ytd. Performance: Baby Amazon Index [/opfqdB0bOx0Ubx5XtEwlP4yTCCczqFdby9mYsJJ9.png] The EM tech rout has been sudden and violent, and in some cases the baby has been thrown out with the bathwater. Some worthy stocks have been caught up in the sell-off, such as Jumia, Coupang and Sea Ltd. ...
We lower our target price for Bukalapak to IDR298 from IDR413, implying 23% downside. We cut our earnings expectations for FY 21 and FY 22 by 12% and 11%, respectively. Bukalapak's market share will contract in the face of competition from GoTo, Lazada and Shopee, all of which are better funded and have superior technology. Moreover, Bukalapak's management is facing upheaval, with Rachmat Kaimuddin stepping down as CEO earlier this month. We also lower our terminal growth rate estimate in lig...
On 1 December, we initiated with a Sell recommendation on Bukalapak, the Indonesian e-commerce company. Bukalapak listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange in the largest IPO in Indonesian history (US$1.5bn). Our thesis is as follows: 1. Bukalapak will face oblivion in the face of competition from larger competitors like Grab and Gojek. Bukalapak's market share is only 7%, making it the fourth or fifth largest player in Indonesia. It focuses on the tier 2 cities. In the US, Amazon's market domina...
We initiate coverage on Bukalapak with a Sell recommendation and a target price of IDR413, implying 24% downside. Bukalapak is an Indonesian e-commerce player. It focuses on providing e-commerce to the country’s 13.5mn MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises). Its principal target is the tier 2 regions of Indonesia – ie those beyond metropolitan Jakarta and Surabaya. [/QvdMPhwUxVXeTOQ9dOlH4OsI58OpdWPF7ewV5kD7.png] INVESTMENT SUMMARY The stock looks overvalued given ...
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