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- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 23 review: Outperformance by China Telecom; bullish...
China Telecom was the clear outperformer for service revenue growth this quarter and for the full year too, driven by an acceleration in Enterprise. Industry EBITDA trend was less upbeat in Q4 as China Mobile and Unicom declined. Both capex and dividend guidance were bullish; industry capex expected to lower by 5% while payout is expected to trend above 75% over the next three years (by 2026) for China Mobile and China Telecom.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2024 – Expect another good year for t...
2023 was another decent year for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. Stocks (especially China Mobile and Telecom) outperformed the weak local index. We expect trends to last through 2024 with good revenue growth and reducing margin pressure and the potential for shareholder remuneration to surprise
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
China Tower (Buy, TP: HKD 1.7, +136%) Q3 23 Quick Take: Better overal...
China Tower reported another robust set of figures with good bottom-line growth, supported by an improvement in topline and EBITDA. YTD net profit has grown 14.8% YoY, against consensus’ 8.9% growth for the full year. Despite the recent margin pressure associated with its higher-growth Two Wings business, net profit growth has remained strong on lower depreciation and finance costs.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
EM Tower Trends Faster quarter in Africa and Indonesia; IHS’ MTN Nige...
Amongst our EM Tower coverage, African TowerCos like IHS continue to trend well on topline and EBITDA; Indonesian towers reported faster EBITDA growth ahead of topline again; China Tower slowed again as Towers revenue were impacted by MSA renegotiation effective from 2023; its Two Wings business continue to show healthy growth, however. Indian towers reported better numbers, supported by Indus performance as the lower bad debt costs helped offset its higher energy costs.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 23 review: Better EBITDA; Enterprise continue to dr...
Chinese operators slowed to 5% service revenue growth, with the slowdown in mobile and broadband only partially offset by enterprise growth. Importantly, shareholder remuneration were encouraging as interim dividends grew 10%/19%/23% YoY for CM, CT and CU respectively.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Tower Trends Africa outperforming; Q1 CY2023 review
Amongst our EM Tower coverage, African TowerCos continue to outperform. At this stage, we prefer IHS as it offers the best EBITDA growth profile, coupled with its Project Green and considering that diesel prices in Nigeria are falling, we should see meaningful pull through for the year, despite the recent devaluation of the Naira.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q1 23 review: Growth sustained by better mobile and co...
Chinese operators sustained another round of 7-8% service revenue growth, supported by improvements in mobile and continued strength in Enterprise. Given the growth in absolute incremental Enterprise revenue, Enterprise service revenue contribution has now exceeded fixed line.
- Chris Hoare
China Tower (Buy, TP: HK$1.7, +70%) Q1 23: Decent start to the year,...
China Tower has reported a decent set of Q1 results. Core trends slowed, impacted by the new commercial pricing agreements and service agreements, but the fact that total revenue continued to post positive growth is encouraging in our view. Even more encouraging is the improvement in EBITDA trends and net profit up 15% YoY this quarter despite the MSR renegotiation
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Chinese Telcos Showing the path for the rest of EM
Chinese Telcos have seen growth and return on capital inflect. Shareholder remuneration is improving. Despite a big rally recently, we see the sector doubling in value in coming years, but more importantly for those who cannot invest in the sector, we think Chinese Telcos are leading indicators of what is set to happen in the rest of EM.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2023: Expect another good...
2022 was a good year for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. We expect trends to last through 2023 with high single digit revenue growth though some near-term margin pressure is expected. Shareholder remuneration is guided to improve. We remain Buyers of all 3. China Tower should also do well in 2023 we think given more certainty following the new contract.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: EM Telcos Q3 22 Enterprise review: Onboard the Enterprise...
Enterprise remains as the fastest driver for most EM Telcos and is set to exceed expectations based on our view that Enterprise penetration is following an S-curve. For nascent markets (India, Latam, Thailand), acceleration is the theme; while more mature markets like China are still riding on the double-digit trend. We see China as the leading indicator as to how Enterprise revenue might trend for EM telcos. In this note, we pull together actual Enterprise revenue trends as reported by EM Telco...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: China Tower (Buy, TP: HK$1.7, +82%) Our thoughts on the 2...
China Tower shares spiked 13% today on the revised 2022 Service Framework Agreement, where the key changes include the 2.4% rise in co-tenancy discounts on the base price. In our view, the dilutive impact on the 2023E ARP/Tenant is less than what the market had anticipated – 1.6% vs market’s expectation of a 3% decline.
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