The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB: 1 director

A director at Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB bought 10,000 shares at 288.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...

April sales: +2.8 comparable (positive calendar)

Copper is golden - Sandvik up to BUY

Copper and gold rally will turn order growth around in H2. Also secular drivers benefiting both Epiroc and Sandvik. Sandvik has highest value upside - up to BUY.

Defending the premium good enough for now

Increasing Mining optimism after copper, gold rally. Adj. EBIT'24e-26e +2-4%. Maintained at HOLD.

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Smooth operator

Despite weaker organic growth than we had expected, Q1 had strong cost control and solid margins. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c1% on average, having become more positive on margins. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price, continuing to see risk/reward as fairly balanced.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Strong start to 2024

The Q1 earnings were above our forecast, even though some of the positive effects were one-offs (manufacturing revenues, among others). We believe Vonjo sales have bottomed out and we should be back at QOQ growth from Q2. The haemophilia franchise enjoyed stronger than expected growth, but some of this was due to phasing between quarters (hence this might hurt Q2 sales slightly). We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK335 (320).

Q1 shows core SOBI sales model works

Strong Q1 numbers, 20% CER growth and 5-15% adj EBITA beat. Vonjo questions remain, but Q1 shows that SOBI sales model works. EPS +1-2% and unchanged BUY, as core case is reaffirmed.

Brighter beyond Q2

Q1'24 EBIT 6% below our expectations, driven by BTT. Soft short-term outlook but brighter beyond Q2'24e. '24e-'26e down 4-3%, TP cut to EUR 17.5 (18.5), HOLD.

Riding on price tailwinds from Q2e

Solid Q1, but with adj. EBIT 3% below due to net recruitments. Fine-tuned sales, but '24e-'26e EBIT down 4-3% on higher opex. Share to benefit from improved organic growth: up to BUY (Hold).

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK85.00) - Set for acceleration quarters

We find Fortnox’s Q1 42% adj. EPS growth YOY impressive in light of the macro drag, limited price tailwinds, and step up in investments. In-line underlying results mean our 2024e adj. EBIT is broadly unchanged (-1%), leaving our 2024–2025e EBIT 7–11% above Bloomberg consensus. The choke point for bears was negative reported FCF, while we believe FCF adjusted for calendar effects and its lending business showed a 34.9% margin. We reiterate our BUY and SEK85 target price, and see potential trigger...

Kesko (Hold, TP: EUR17.00) - Technical(ly) weak

Q1 disappointed due to Building & Technical Trade (BTT) profitability well below expectations. We continue to see a mixed case, with stable to gradually improving Grocery Trade (GT) but still-weak Building & Technical Trade. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR17 (18), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT and DPS by c4%.

3% adj. EBIT miss on higher costs

Q1'24: strong sales and decent margin

Soft Q1 results

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/24/2024

...

Epiroc : Le recul de la marge inquiète avant l’intégration de Stanley ...

>T1 2024 : marge d’EBIT ajusté en recul de 260pb à 20.4% - Epiroc a publié hier matin ses résultats T1 2024 (voir first take) qui étaient en dessous des attentes sur les prises de commandes (-5%) et sur l’EBIT ajusté (-4%).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul de 3% en organique (css à -1.2%), impactées notamment par moins de large orders (400 MSEK vs 900 MSEK au T1 2023). Le chiffre d’affaires était en hausse de 3% en organique (css à 2.7%).La marge...

Epiroc : Margin decline causes concern ahead of Stanley Infrastructure...

>Q1 2024: adjusted EBIT margin down 260bp to 20.4% - Yesterday morning Epiroc reported Q1 2024 results (see our First Take) that fell short of expectations on the order intake (-5%) and on adjusted EBIT (-4%).New orders were down -3% on an organic basis (consensus at -1.2%), affected notably by fewer large orders (SEK 400m vs SEK 900m in Q1 2023). Sales grew 3% in organic terms (consensus at 2.7%).The adjusted EBIT margin was down 260bp to 20.4% (consen...