Following Allfunds' first quarter results, we update our forecasts and valuation for Allfunds. A slower pace in the recovery of AuA leads us to reduce our revenue and earnings forecasts but the re-rating of the peer group leads us to maintain our 12-month target price of €7.30 and BUY recommendation.
>Strong MtM effect due to stock market recovery, however net flows mixed - Total AuA book ended the quarter at € 1.433bn, which is 1.1% ahead of css estimate and a 3.6% acceleration QoQ. Organic book stood at € 1.028bn, 1.5% higher than css estimate and growing 4.4% vs Q4 2023. Organic AuA book grew faster vs D&A in Q1 2024, which we like as this is the higher-margin book. Most of AuA growth was driven by the market performance/MtM effect, which was strong in Q1 2024 ...
Ahold Delhaize: Release of 1Q24 company-compiled consensus. AkzoNobel: Decent 1Q24 with 4% beat, FY guidance reiterated. Allfunds Group plc: On the verge. Barco: Weak 1Q24, more conservative wording on guidance. DWS: 1Q24 preview. Flow Traders: No respite in March. IMCD: Last hurdle before growth. Randstad: 1Q24 slight miss vs consensus, 2Q24 outlook below due to weak gross margin. TKH Group: Preview – a weak 1Q expected Vår Energi: Nice start to the year
>Metrics improved towards end-2023, entering 2024 with a good momentum - Allfunds posted a good overall performance in 2023. Revenue grew by 10.3% YoY on an organic basis (in line with guidance), which was positive as growth had been slightly behind at H1 2023. EoP AuA came very close to the target of € 1.4tn, and we flag here that outflows from existing clients declined materially towards end-Q4 (-€ 1bn in December vs. -€ 13.4bn in October). We think there is good re...
>H2 2023 results ahead of expectation - Allfunds came out with a strong set of H2 2023 figures this morning, with good beats across main line items. Revenue came better at € 279.5m in H2 2023, which is a beat of 3.5% to consensus forecast ant growing 18.6% YoY. Good revenue development was driven by strong NTI (€ 44.6m) and acceleration in SaaS revenue (€ 32.2m, 21% up vs H1 2023). Profitability was materially better than consensus at € 187.4m adjusted EBITDA (8.1% be...
AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...
>Fresh takeover speculations - A fresh article this morning originated in Expansion (Spanish press) mentioned that Euroclear and Brookfield AM have expressed interest in taking over Allfunds. The article mentions that representatives from both firms held recently talks with Allfunds management and three largest shareholders (PE firm Hellman & Friedman, GIC, and BNP Paribas). If talks were successful, this should lead eventually to a public acquisition offer in due tim...
N°2 mondial, Pluxee devient pure player indépendant des Employee Benefits et coté en Bourse le 1er février. Le développement de son offre et réseau soutiendra une croissance du CA LFL à >10% sur 2023/2026e. L’amélioration importante de sa rentabilité bénéficiera du levier opérationnel et de la digitalisation. Sa position de cash net permettra du M&A et un dividende régulier. Nous initions Pluxee avec une recommandation Neutre et un OC de 31 €. - ...
Ranked world number 2, Pluxee is set to become an independent pure player in employee benefits, with a listing from 1 February. The development of its offerings and expansion of its network will support LFL revenue growth estimated at more than 10% from 2023 to 2026e. Operational leverage and digitalisation should be synonymous with significant improvement in profitability, while the group’s net cash position will facilitate M&A and regular dividend payments. We are initiating coverag...
>Putting the jigsaw together: the trail of events leading to us writing this note - Since ENX withdrew its indicative bid for Allfunds in February 2023, there was speculation in the market that Allfunds might become the target of another bid. Two recent articles came out suggesting that Allfunds had enlisted two banks to explore strategic options for the company, a claim that management rejects. However, if we put the jigsaw puzzle together, we see a heightened level ...
The ESG themes addressed during this year’s forum centred around the 3 “T”s: Transparency, with the implementation of the CSRD; Talent, a theme where the issues of attraction and retention are as relevant as ever; and Transition, with some companies in the process of adapting their business models to embrace sustainability-related topics. Our favorite ESG profiles are those of GEA Group, Intertek, Carbios, SPIE, Elis, UCB and, to a certain extent, Bekaert. - ...
Cette année, les thématiques ESG abordées lors du Forum se dessinent autour des 3 « T » : Transparence, avec la mise en œuvre de la CSRD, Talents : les enjeux d’attraction et de rétention restent prégnants ; Transition : un virage des modèles d’activité vers des thématiques de durabilité est engagé pour certains acteurs. Côté valeurs, nous apprécions le profil ESG de GEA Group, Intertek, Carbios, SPIE, Elis, UCB et dans une certaine mesure, Bekaert. - ...
>Conclusion: TP raised to € 7.7, Outperform reiterated - Allfunds will come out with its Q4 and FY 2023 results on 29th of February. As per usual, the company will provide an update on the quarterly flows and H2 2023 financial figures. Overall we think Allfunds had a good quarter in the platform AuA business marked by a period of strong migrations. Fee margin is expected to come in flat at 3.6bps which is healthy. Treasury income and the SaaS business likely had a dec...
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