We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • PCF Group: new strategy aims at flying high (stays BUY) • Turkey macro: CBT signals an extended pause • PPC: 4Q22 results - recurring EBITDA beats by 5%, FY23 guidance in line POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 4Q22 results slightly above expectations, outlook broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Dino: minor miss in the 4Q22 results; FY23 guidance in line with our expectations NEGATIVE • STS Group: key takeaways from the 4Q22 call POSITIVE • Pepco Group: parent company fails to obtain shareholde...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Kcell: new capex cycle ahead (downgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q22 net profit in line, but hope for DPS potentially picking up POSITIVE • ING BSK: 4Q22 net profit in line with expectations, but softer on P&L mix • OMV Petrom: 4Q22 clean results in line, but upstream hit by RON 1.8bn unexpected impairments • OMV: 4Q22 results - net income well below expectations, big dividend proposal • US macro: Fed preparing the grounds for a pause • Garanti: 4Q22 highlights - 202...
We have downgraded our rating on Kcell to HOLD (from Buy), but raised our price target (PT) to KZT 1,769/share (from KZT 1,712), implying 1% upside potential. We are closing our Buy call on Kcell as, after the 45% share price rally since our previous report, we see the current valuation as fair. Moreover, we note that the shareholder returns might be harmed, in the short-to-medium-term, by the upcoming capex cycle related to the 5G network rollout. We expect no dividends to be paid until 2025E. ...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: record-high clean CCS EBIT, above both our and consensus numbers POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q22 results and special dividend proposal • Garanti Bank: 3Q22 highlights - decent quarter, on its own • Kruk: PLN 188m of net profit in 3Q22 - profit warning • Europe macro: ECB's stance to stay hawkish for a long time, but attention is shifting to liquidity • Erdemir: key takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - positive 3Q GDP does not change the traje...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Grupa Pracuj: dangerous liaisons with the macro (SELL - initiation of coverage) • Jeronimo Martins: 2Q22 beat on 23% lfl at Biedronka POSITIVE • Tofas: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Yapi Kredi: 2Q22 results - some beat, but the going is still tough with inflation • Wizz Air: 1Q FY23 numbers in line, expects to fly 30% higher capacity vs. 2019, RASK +10% in summer NEUTRAL • Arcelik: 2Q22 results - bottom line misses expectations NEGATIVE • Iceland macro: a simple, positive...
Kcell has reported solid 2Q22 results, with the top line growing 22% yoy, to KZT 56.4bn (7% above our estimate), and the adjusted EBITDA up 24% yoy, to KZT 24.0bn (9% above our estimate). We see the outcome as neutral as, on the one hand, the 2Q22 results are strong (above our expectations) and the KPIs are solid (with a qoq increase in the customer base, yoy ARPU expansion and a churn reduction); while, on the other, the company has presented very conservative FY22E guidance, with 3-4% EBITDA g...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: strong tailwinds, solid execution (stays BUY) • Dom Development: 1Q22 - beats vs. both our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • Petrol Group: 1Q22 review - strong results, driven by growing fuel sales POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: expansion of buyback programme to 6.5m shares, maximum amount of PLN 100m unchanged POSITIVE • Transgaz: transport tariffs to remain unchanged until 30 September 2023 NEGATIVE • Kcell: postpones dividends from 2021 net profit NEGATIVE • Polish ...
HEADLINES: • Kcell: attractively-valued frontier exposure (upgraded to BUY) • Halyk Savings Bank: 1Q22 highlights - trading income gives a boost, but still a good start • Astarta Holding: 1Q22 results weaker than expected, but leverage remains low NEUTRAL • CEE macro: strong, above-consensus growth in 1Q • Polish banks: government clears draft bill on mortgagors' aid measures; next step - parliament NEGATIVE • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 1Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Shoper: post...
We have upgraded our rating on Kcell to BUY (from Sell) and cut our price target (PT) to KZT 1,712/share (from KZT 2,231/share), implying 41% upside potential. In the LTM, Kcell’s share price has dropped 51%, following the turbulence surrounding the company’s delisting from the LSE, material share supply (Kazakhtelecom sold a 24% stake in October 2021), the geopolitical crisis (social unrest in Kazakhstan in 1Q22, war in Ukraine) and growing interest rates affecting the valuation (central bank r...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Russia can live (but not thrive) without EU gas payments • Erste Bank: strong start to 2022 with the 1Q22 delivery POSITIVE • Kruk: publishes detailed 1Q22 - solid trends, but supported by positive revaluations, as suspected NEUTRAL • Tekfen Holding: 1Q22 results - another major miss NEGATIVE • Turkcell: 1Q22 results in line, except a 10% NI miss; FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q22 results review - mixed, but FY guidance revised up NEUTRA...
Kcell has reported solid 1Q22 results, with its top line growing 14% yoy, to KZT 50.3bn (3% above our estimate) and its adjusted EBITDA up 12% yoy, to KZT 21.7bn (7% above our estimate). We see the results as positive, due to the beat vs. our forecasts, stemming from the stronger-than-expected top line, and we expect some positive market reaction.
HEADLINES: • Russian commodities: the long and short side of it • Arcelik: 1Q22 results - as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: number of changes by the CBT • Ten Square Games: management recommends PLN 10 DPS from the 2021 net profit POSITIVE • Kety: management recommends PLN 52.4 DPS (8% dividend yield) from the 2021 profit NEUTRAL • Norilsk Nickel: final 2021 dividend yield at 5.9%, ADR holders may not receive payment • Alrosa: Russian rough diamonds stop flowing to main Indian manufacturi...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
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