PSA IT Services – Unpopularity Unwarranted – Sector Report In this report we discuss the overall results for the IT Services sector and then delve into each company in our coverage. Our valuations quadrant on page 9 provides a snapshot of the valuation of each company vs. their growth. It shows that half the companies under our coverage in the IT Service sector feature in the Higher Growth, Lower Valuation segment of the quadrant, underlining the opportunities that the sector still presents.
Despite a strong FY25 performance, the market seemed focused on the Q4 miss – which had been flagged – sending the shares down a sharp -15% [14 Nov]. The stock is trading on a FY26 EV/OP of 21x based on consensus estimates and 20x based on our existing estimate; this drops to around 16x for FY27. ERP Software / IT Services analyst Lindsay Whipp notes that PKSHA is positioning itself for strong long-term growth and remains positive about the company’s prospects.
Tags: Obic (4684 JT), Obic Business Consultants (4733 JT), PCA Corp (9629 JT), Ines Corp (9742 JT), Shift (3697 JT), BayCurrent (6532 JT), PKSHA (3993 JT), ExaWizards (4259 JT) Six enterprise software companies reported earnings during the week to 31 Oct with mixed results. Analyst Lindsay Whipp takes us through the performance of four companies in her coverage – TIS, NRI, Obic and OBC.
The most recent quarterly earnings for the system integrators highlighted the sustained increase in spending by Japanese financial institutions over recent quarters, as they seek to improve products and services amid a shift in interest rates and the introduction of tax-exempt investment accounts, and as interest in digital currencies grows. Analyst Lindsay Whipp reviews some of the DX spending undertaken by Japan’s banking industry and highlights beneficiaries'.
Revenue trends were steady as the softer mobile growth was offset by improvement in non-mobile. Softbank remained the outperformer, but this has already been baked in as expectations for Group revenue are sitting ahead of guidance by 3%.
NTT printed a rather soft set of Q1 results as Mobile was weaker and Global Solutions was impacted by FX weakness in its Overseas arm. The recovery in Regional Communications offered some encouragement and is likely to remain so as the firm transits from Copper to Fibre over the long run.
Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
As has been widely rumoured, NTT has offered to acquire up to 66% of SBI Sumishin Bank (7163-JP), in a bid to strengthen its financial services offering. The offer price (¥3,615) represents a 10% premium to yesterday’s price, but actually around 10% below today’s closing price.
As rumoured, NTT has offered to buy out the minorities (~42.3%) of NTT Data via a tender offer, at a 34% premium, or ¥4,000 per share. This is a slightly lower premium than we would have expected and implies a transaction value for the minority stake of ¥2.4tn (USD 16.5bn). Quick thoughts below.
In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
Tags: NTT Corp (9432 JT), Equinix (EQIX US), Iron Mountain (IRM US), Amazon (AMZN US), Microsoft (MSFT US), Google (GOOG US), Digital Realty Trust (DLR US), QTS (owned by Blackstone (BX US)), CyrusOne (owned by KKR (KKR US) and Global Infrastructure Partners (pvt), Cyxtera (owned by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP US)), Cologix (pvt), Meta (META US), Apple (AAPL US), Oracle (ORCL US), Netflix (NFLX US), Money Forward (3994 JT), Digital Realty Trust (DLR US), DataBridge Group (DBRG US), N...
After 3 good years, 2024 was not great for the Japanese incumbents; with KDDI and SoftBank rising modestly and NTT falling, but all underperforming the Nikkei. In our view, risk is rising in Mobile, although we continue to see the sector as fundamentally undervalued. Rakuten performed well in 2024, but this was really to do with balance sheet risk easing on the back of cost cutting/refinancing rather than better traction in Mobile.
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