Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 20,000 shares at 82.100NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK500.00) -

Battered for a number of quarters by operating issues, lower metal grades at key mines and falling metal prices, we believe Boliden’s earnings headwind is now a tailwind. Moreover, on top of support from higher metal prices, we see distinct company-specific earnings drivers for 2024–2027e: 1) Odda completion; 2) Tara restart; 3) restored Rönnskär operations; and 4) normalised copper grades at Aitik. Our 2027e record earnings translate into a low P/E of c7x, and we see ample room for cash distrib...

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK630.00) - US royalties higher than expected

Q1 earnings were much higher than we and consensus expected, despite a top-line miss. While Buvidal sales were c6% below our forecast, Brixadi royalties of SEK26m were well above our SEK15m estimate. The 2024 guidance was reiterated. Following the results we have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 13% on average, and in turn our target price to SEK630 (550). We reiterate our BUY.

CAMURUS reports Q1, showing encouraging sales uptake in the US

Camurus reported its Q1 2024 results, where i) total revenues came in at SEK 390m (vs css SEK 405m, -3.7%), of which SEK 364m product sales (+3% QoQ at CER), ii) profit before tax came in at SEK 97m (vs css 80.3m, +20%), and iii) a cash position at SEK 2,274m. We observe a steady increase in the nu

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK97.00) - Quality discount an opportunity

Bravida’s Q1 was mixed, with EBIT down 21% YOY, but still-solid order intake and FCF generation. While the Region Skåne governance failure seems to have been handled properly, we believe Bravida needs to rebuild its quality brand name. We still see a normalisation of the current valuation discount, and reiterate our BUY and SEK97 target price.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK550.00) - Solid start to 2024e

We forecast solid Q1 earnings, albeit down slightly YOY on a higher operating cost base (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May). However, with Q1 last year marking the low point of R&D spend in 2023, we do not find this alarming. We believe the company will reiterate its 2024 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and SEK550 target price.

Comeback kickoff

Q2 better on margins and volumes; earnings mix also strong. Further improvement in coming quarters on margin recovery. Record-low valuation: P/E 12-13x, SOTP at NOK 107/share.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Signs of light

Orkla’s Q1 results were slightly above consensus, with positive developments in volume and gross margin. Nevertheless, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair, and we have made only minor estimate revisions.

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Q1 slightly above consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report, including figures above consensus on higher-than-expected organic growth, a slight contribution-margin improvement, and no significant change in outlook. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT, and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Re-focused and re-energised

Q1: EBIT 7-8% better. Profitably > volume growth, the right move. Q2e set to be ATH: '24e-'25e EPS up 4-7%. '24e & '25e P/E 11.2x and 9.3x: Multiple expansion next, BUY.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - On track

Despite underlying results slightly below consensus, we believe the Q1 report underlined that SATS is on track to deliver on its medium-term targets, with further potential from its existing club base longer-term. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Super-scaling into the future

We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK170 (155) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 11–7%. Q2 to date has exceeded our expectations, and we forecast further healthy earnings in the coming quarters (cost control alongside high player activity driving solid revenues from key upcoming football tournaments). Betsson’s 2024e net cash of EUR142m should enable further M&A and solid cash distribution.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

EBITDA 2% below on higher cost

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK420.00) - In a sweet spot

Despite low mining volumes, the Q1 results were close to our expectations, thanks to good cost control. We have made significant estimate increases on better metal price and FX assumptions, and beyond 2024 we continue to see additional earnings support from: 1) higher mining volumes due to richer metal grades; 2) normal operations at Rönnskär; and 3) growing profits from the Odda smelter. Our spot-based estimates for 2027 translate to an EV/EBIT of 5.2x, but we see significant upside potential t...