reports
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 7 more proposals
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 39 states & territories. Comcast and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations has stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share increased slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Funding wins and investments by operator
In this note on BEAD, we summarize the funding wins so far for each operator along with the matching investment they are expected to make based on the cost estimates of each state. Based on the state estimates, they are contributing 63% of the estimated build costs and the operators are expected to invest 37% of the cost. The share of investments needed varies depending on the operator, and in some cases may be lower than estimated.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: NTIA Deadline is here
Today is the deadline for all states to submit their final proposals. We now include proposals from 32 states in this latest update on BEAD. Fiber’s share of locations has nearly stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share declined slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for a third of the locations awarded.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Half-time report
Our latest BEAD update includes proposals from 25 states. Fiber remains the preferred technology with its share improving slightly from our last update. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies. We also update our summary for BEAD proposals so far.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: More state proposals; Fiber share nearly stable
24 states have now reported their BEAD proposals. Fiber remains the preferred technology, and their share of locations slipped only slightly in this latest round of updates. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies. We also update our summary for BEAD proposals so far.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Fiber slips further; FWA gains some ground
Georgia, New Mexico and Oklahoma have reported their BEAD proposals. We are also including the numbers released by Washington yesterday. While fiber remains the dominant technology, its share slipped further. FWA and satellite increased their share of locations. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
Frontier Post 2Q25 Model Update
This note focuses on changes to the model following 2Q25 results. Earlier this week, we published a comprehensive review of results. The price at close is fixed. We don’t have a view on the current deal spread. We see no impediments to closing of the transaction. Stock is rated neutral with a price target of $38.50 (same as deal price).
- Vikash Harlalka
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR Faces Pushback from California on DEI
The VZ/FYBR deal obtained approval from the FCC by providing a letter modifying its DEI efforts. That letter, however, has raised issues with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which also must approve the deal. In a prior note, we analyzed the interplay of the demands of the FCC and CPUC, the political challenge for VZ, and how we think the situation may be resolved. In this note, we review a new ruling from the CPUC and how that affects the situation.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR Faces California Trump Transaction Trap
The VZ/FYBR deal obtained approval from the FCC by providing a letter modifying its DEI efforts. That letter, however, has raised issues with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which also must approve the deal. In this note we analyze the interplay of the demands of the FCC and CPUC and how we think the situation may be resolved.
- Blair Levin
What Does VZ/FYBR Tell Us About Convergence Deal Reviews?
As expected, the FCC approved the VZ/FYBR deal once VZ filed a letter disavowing its DEI programs. But the FCC also provided clarification about a critical issue that will be central to deals involving both wireless and wired assets. In this note, we describe what the FCC did and how it might affect future reviews.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
BEAD Data Shows CMSCA Active in Many States
With all but four states having started and/or completed their prequalification process for eligibility for BEAD funding, there is new data showing high levels of participation by CMSCA and CHTR, with significant levels of participation by T and FBYR (to be acquired by VZ.) In this note we discuss that data and state of play as the states move forward and the Department of Commerce aims for a decision in about a month (which we think is likely to be delayed) for resolving how the BEAD should be...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Further thoughts on tariff impacts on Fiber and Cable
We published our quick take on tariff impacts on Mobile and Broadband stocks last week. We haven’t learned much over the last week that would change our initial take for Wireless, or for Broadband revenues and costs. We hosted a lunch with Shentel yesterday that provided some new insights on the impact to fiber capex, with implications for Cable.
- Blair Levin
What Does Carr’s DEI Merger Ban Mean for TMUS, Media and Other Deals
Immediately after the election, investors were excited about the prospect of easier government approvals of transactions. However, as we have previously discussed, that is not the way the review process is working out. A further indication of the transaction barriers came up over the weekend, as multiple articles appeared stating that FCC Chair Carr would block any deal that requires FCC approval where a party has a DEI program. We have previously written about how Carr’s view on DEI would app...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What Does BEAD State Bidding Tell Us?
Last week, we provided several notes analyzing how Congressional Republicans and the Administration, as well as others, were debating changes in the BEAD program. While that rhetoric pointed to significant changes ahead, the states have been proceeding under the existing rules set in the Biden Administration, making significant progress in ways generally not reflected in the DC discussions. In this note, we summarize the state activity and ISP bidding to date. We analyze what the state activi...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: BEAD Adjustments Certain but Details Still Cloudy
Yesterday, we published a note on whether T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk will come out on top with revisions to the BEAD program that Republicans are contemplating. As we noted, there are numerous changes we felt confident Republicans would do, such as removing a fiber preference, that will have no material impact on publicly traded companies. But there are several other changes that could, including whether the federal government will impose a high-cost threshold on states that will shift funds f...
- Blair Levin
Will T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk Come Out on Top with BEAD Revisions?
While the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans have sent some signals about how they will revise the $42.5 Billion Biden Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program, there has been no definitive word yet on key issues regarding those revisions. That may change today, when there is a congressional hearing on the program. In this note, we review the potential changes from the investor perspective, with a focus on the relative benefits to wireline broadband providers (par...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Verizon Now Faces Trump Transaction Tax
Yesterday, FCC Chairman Carr revealed that he had sent a letter to Verizon, suggesting that the FCC’s review of the VZ/FYBR deal will now include a review of Verizon’s DEI program. In this note, we analyze the implications of Carr’s raising that issue late in the process of the merger review.
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