reports
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
A deeper dive on 'terminal' broadband market share
We recently published our Future of Broadband report where we predicted Cable’s broadband market share will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. We got the question, 'what is cable market share looking like in the most mature fiber markets, is it asymptoting?'. The answer is no. In this report, we use data from our Opensignal partnership to show that Cable’s subscriber market share has continued to fall in markets where they compete against only one fiber provider over a multi-year perio...
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR Win Changes in CPUC Order; Approval Imminent
As we suggested in our note following up on the oral argument relating to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approval of the VZ/FYBR transaction, the CPUC appeared sympathetic to VZ’s concerns. As a result, we thought all the issues could be resolved in a manner acceptable to VZ and that the CPUC could approve the deal as soon as today, the 15th. Based on a 169 page filing by the Administrative Law Judge late yesterday, it appears that assessment was correct and it is now likely...
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR CPUC Oral Argument: Quick Post-Game Analysis
Yesterday morning, we provided our pre-game analysis of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) oral argument that was held late yesterday afternoon. We have not yet seen the transcript but in this note we make a couple of observations to assist investors following the transaction.
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR CPUC Argument Today: Our Pre-game Analysis
Today, at 1:00 PM PT, there will be an oral argument before the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in which VZ will argue for various changes to the Proposed Decision (PD) related to VZ’s acquisition of FYBR. As discussed in last week’s note, there are many issues at stake but from an investor’s perspective the most critical appears to be about what deployment obligations the combined company will have if the merger closes. In this note, we list the changes VZ seeks to assist invest...
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR: Filings Confirm Concerns about CPUC Deployment Requirement
Recent filings at the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) confirm that there is still a gap between what VZ is willing to do to gain approval of its acquisition of FYBR and what the CPUC wants. In this note we update our thinking on the state of play and what happens next.
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- Blair Levin
VZ/FBYR/CPUC Update: Build Out Requirements Remain an Issue
In a recent analysis of an Administrative Law Judge issuing a Proposed Decision recommending California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approval of the VZ/FYBR deal, albeit with numerous conditions, we focused on the conditions related to the tension between VZ’s letter to the FCC changing its policies toward DEI and requirements under California law and regulation, as that has been the key discussion point in the process to date. We noted but did not focus on the build-out requirement in pa...
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR Moves Toward California Approval
The VZ/FYBR deal has moved closer to closing with an Administrative Law Judge issuing a Proposed Decision recommending California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approval, albeit with numerous conditions. In this note we discuss that Proposed Decision and the steps forward from here.
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State
We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 3 More States
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Another Major Update
We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR California Timing
Last week we published a note on the status of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) review of the VZ/FYBR deal. While noting that the risk of rejection had gone down, we also noted that the timing was unlikely to be as quick as what VZ was pushing for. Last Friday, the CPUC confirmed that the decision will be later than what VZ was hoping for. In this note we quickly review the Friday order and its implications.
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR Deal Makes Progress in California
Recently, VZ reached a settlement with three groups who had opposed or had reservations about the VZ/FYBR deal in the current California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) review. In this note we provide what we understand to be the state of play for the deal approval.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 7 more proposals
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 39 states & territories. Comcast and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations has stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share increased slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Funding wins and investments by operator
In this note on BEAD, we summarize the funding wins so far for each operator along with the matching investment they are expected to make based on the cost estimates of each state. Based on the state estimates, they are contributing 63% of the estimated build costs and the operators are expected to invest 37% of the cost. The share of investments needed varies depending on the operator, and in some cases may be lower than estimated.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: NTIA Deadline is here
Today is the deadline for all states to submit their final proposals. We now include proposals from 32 states in this latest update on BEAD. Fiber’s share of locations has nearly stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share declined slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for a third of the locations awarded.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Half-time report
Our latest BEAD update includes proposals from 25 states. Fiber remains the preferred technology with its share improving slightly from our last update. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies. We also update our summary for BEAD proposals so far.
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