Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

Market hit it hard for financials

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued repricing momentum

Underwriting continued to improve, helped by recent repricing efforts to mitigate inflation, although a soft investment result led to earnings pressure in Q4. With Private segment premium growth of 6.8% YOY in local currencies, supported by continued momentum from Norwegian motor price hikes, we see Tryg as on track to meet its 2027 combined ratio target of ~81%. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

Miss Q4 due to financials, reiterate 2027 guidance

PTP -8-10% from softer financials anb just soft UW and premiums;Reiterate 2027 guidance, 2025 premium growth from private/SMEs; Stock -1-2% today, cons.est.rev. minor; softer read-x into GJF

Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

Good underwriting hit by financials

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Underwriting excellence in focus

Underwriting and capital efficiency remained in focus at Tryg’s 2024 CMD in London. The company lowered its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% and has launched a DKK2bn share buyback programme, following a series of de-risking activities. Despite the strong outlook for continued shareholder distributions, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% on somewhat lower financial result than expected. We reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

CMD - plan towards 2027

2027 underwriting result target of DKK 8-8.4bn; DKK 15-16bn normal divi added by SBB of DKK 2bn for '24-'27; Stock likely up 0-2% today driven by share buyback

Heads-up for CMD 4 December

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Building on a solid foundation

We expect focus at the CMD set for 4 December to be on how best to utilise the scale achieved after the RSA transaction. Building on newfound scale in Sweden, together with profitability measures in Norway, we see continued underwriting improvements. In sum, we expect Tryg to update its key financial targets for 2027, with a combined ratio of ≤80% and an insurance service result of DKK8.2bn–8.6bn. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK185 (180), having increased our 2025–20...

Like clockwork, now time to look to 2027

Q3: Underlying claims in line, 3% UW beat (weather & large losses); Adj. EPS +1% for both 24e (inv.return) and 26e (premiums); Unwarranted P/E discount 24e-25e, BUY into CMD

Reported UW beat, underlying in line

PTP +3% vs both cons & ABG, driven by 3% better UW; Reported growth inline, '24 guidance repeated ahead of CMD; Stock +0-2% today, cons.est.rev. +0-2%; pos. read to peer GJF

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Continuing on the path towards a CR <80%

Q3: expect continued 30bp improvement, neutral risk/reward. UW -1-2% on lower discounting; '24e adj. EPS +2% (financials). Trading at 5-12% warranted cap. adj. P/E premium to peers: BUY.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%