Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Building on a solid foundation

We expect focus at the CMD set for 4 December to be on how best to utilise the scale achieved after the RSA transaction. Building on newfound scale in Sweden, together with profitability measures in Norway, we see continued underwriting improvements. In sum, we expect Tryg to update its key financial targets for 2027, with a combined ratio of ≤80% and an insurance service result of DKK8.2bn–8.6bn. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK185 (180), having increased our 2025–20...

Like clockwork, now time to look to 2027

Q3: Underlying claims in line, 3% UW beat (weather & large losses); Adj. EPS +1% for both 24e (inv.return) and 26e (premiums); Unwarranted P/E discount 24e-25e, BUY into CMD

Reported UW beat, underlying in line

PTP +3% vs both cons & ABG, driven by 3% better UW; Reported growth inline, '24 guidance repeated ahead of CMD; Stock +0-2% today, cons.est.rev. +0-2%; pos. read to peer GJF

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Continuing on the path towards a CR <80%

Q3: expect continued 30bp improvement, neutral risk/reward. UW -1-2% on lower discounting; '24e adj. EPS +2% (financials). Trading at 5-12% warranted cap. adj. P/E premium to peers: BUY.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued profitability measures

Q2 PTP was 73% higher YOY as both investments and underwriting experienced a positive turnaround due to favourable weather and less volatile financial markets. The combined ratio was helped by there being few large claims, while the underlying claims ratio improved 0.4%-points YOY. Premium growth was negatively affected by continued rebalancing of the corporate portfolio, offsetting part of the underlying claims improvement, reducing our 2025–2026e EPS by 0-1%. We reiterate our BUY and DKK185 ta...

Record-low combined ratio

Q2e: Underlying claims in line, UW beat (run-offs & large losses). Adj. EPS +4% for '24e, -1% for '25e & unchanged for '26e. Trading at an unwarranted capital-adj. P/E of ~15.1x — BUY

PTP beat, but underlying UW a tad soft

Heads-up for Q2-report, 11 July

Nordic non-life: Q2e - Repricing to show effects

A more normal claims quarter should start to show the repricing. Expanding margins up avg. adj EPS '25e-'26e by ~1%. Prefer Sampo to Tryg and GJF (all BUYs); TOP (SELL)

FX could soon become a tailwind

Q2: huge turnaround in UW (both q-o-q and y-o-y). Raise premiums for all years (FX): fine-tune estimates -1% to +3%. Still trading at an undeserved 12-16% discount on capital-adj. P/E

Seeing the effects of repricing

Warm weather in the quarter, albeit with periods of heavy rainfall, should support seasonally low claims, while we expect to see the results of the strong premium repricing since H2 2023. Stable interest rates in most markets and solid equity performance QOQ should further support Q2 earnings. Sampo is our Nordic non-life top pick, following its long-awaited bid for the remaining shares in Topdanmark.

CEO repeats its strong repricing message

Repeat its profitable growth, price and cost discipline. Weather effects of 7.2pp in Q1'24 give hope of improved 2H. No estimate changes, ~10% upside to TP of NOK 195, BUY.