Geopolitical risk has resurfaced, but the nearterm impact on European listed real estate remains contained. Rising energydriven inflation and rates are driving greater dispersion and sharpening the focus on balancesheet quality, while MIPIM 2026 highlighted a pragmatic investor approach. In this report, we adjust target prices and refresh our top picks, removing CTP and adding Irish Residential REIT. Geopolitics and energy: duration matters more than headlines
HEADLINES: • BIM: 4Q25 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Enea: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 25% below expectations on Supply one-offs; adjusted EBITDA 2% below forecast NEUTRAL • Enea / Tauron: URE orders additional payments to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • PGE: completes acquisition of 350 MW Bałtyk II offshore wind project from RWE NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: PLN 10.7m impairment losses to spoil otherwise strong quarter (due on 23 March) NEGATIVE • Footshop: preliminary 4Q25 resul...
The majority of European real estate seems to have sailed through the rate hikes surprisingly smoothly. There appears to be a broad consensus among companies and realtors that the trough in values may have passed, and that 2026E may see a continued transaction volume recovery, led by prime assets. Valuations are broadly expected to be income driven, with limited room for yield compression, as rates remain stable. Investors appear selective, favouring prime, core assets; while secondary, older st...
EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
CTP shares took a beating after the FY25 results as the consensus probably expected a higher completion number and the capitalisation of interests clouds the outlook comparability. We actually like both trends. Firstly, there is no point for more completions and speculative investments in CEE as it would destroy value for all logistic developers in the market. Capitalising interest also make sense as it increases the comparability with the pure REITS, but EPRA accounting still overlooks the larg...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q25 miss, due mainly to allegations about food safety in Czechia NEGATIVE • Kruk: 4Q25 results – bit of a mixed bag • Text: 3Q25-26 (calendar 4Q25) results – EBITDA down 25% yoy, 3% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Enea: impairments and higher provisions to reduce 2025 net income by PLN 1.37bn and EBITDA by PLN 162m NEUTRAL • CTP: 4Q25 results and conference call • Richter: 4Q25 beat, on gross margin and tight opex control POSITIVE • Duna House: 4Q25 in line, guidance implies ...
The 4Q25 results and the 2026E guidance imply around 3-4% consensus FFO downgrades for 2026E, and feature a material gap between the EPRA earnings (at EUR 336m) and the company-adjusted EPRA earnings (at EUR 405m). That said, CTP announced that it will start to capitalise the interest costs related to developments. As a result, the consensus FFO estimates are likely to be reviewed upwards instead.
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