>Positive tone on Capital Markets Day - Last week Xior showcased its Basecamp portfolio in Copenhagen (Denmark) and Malmo (Sweden) during its Capital Markets Day. The company is close to solving its leverage issues, while issues pressuring the share price in 2022 and 2023 have been resolved. Highlights to us were the strong visibility on future like-for-like growth and the quality of its Basecamp product. We think the Xior platform is one of the best growth platforms...
We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...
Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...
>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...
>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...
Yesterday Spanish media reported on the potential abolishment of the SOCIMI status. The proposal comes from PSOE (socialists) and Sumar (Left winged). This is the REIT regime for listed companies that alows for a tax exemption. If this is the case corporate income tax would increase from 0% to 25%. It is very important to note that this measure is not yet approved. There is no visiblity yet on a potential alternative system. Additionally, measurements (cost shifts) could be taken to decrease the...
Xior organised interesting Capital Market Days in Copenhagen and Malmo this week. We had the chance to visit 3 assets (part of the Basecamp deal). Various presentations focused on 9M results, the Danish market and the student housing market in general. The current strategy focus in on internal growth, via price management. With a significant shortage of housing in the market and inelastic demand, we think organic growth will continue to be robust in 2025. There is a generally positive attitude t...
Xior invited us to Copenhagen and Malmo to visit 3 properties out of the ex-Basecamp portfolio and presentations on other regions. The Basecamp deal transforms the DNA of Xior that can be replicated on a large part of the old portfolio. It also serves as an integration platform for acquisitions. While the timing of the deal hurt the company badly, there is an amount of goodwill (knowledge) that can be further monetized in higher rents and margins. The Basecamp “by Xior” platform caters largely ...
With 2 changes in our Dynamic Top Pick list (we add Azelis and we remove Solvay) we maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks have finally started. The Trump election victory in the US does not bode well for European stocks as he favours a protectionist course. Although industrial companies with a US base could actually benefit. Cleantech names with exposure to the US could also suffer (unless owned by E.Musk). We expect the US ...
>Outlook reiterate; like-for-like growth for FY2024 to 6.5%; LTV flat - Outlook FY2024 EPRA EPS reiterated at € 2.21 and € 1.768 DPS.Disposals of €25m signed, expected to close in Q4. Xior announced its divestment programme is now fully realised, after we count it has disposed €245m of the initial €340m disposal program. +1.25% (+€40m) increase of like-for-like valuations for H1 2024 (H1: +1.4%).Underlying metrics remain strong with 6.5% like-for-like r...
Cofinimmo: Dividend and investment neutrality reconfirmed. KPN: 3Q24 preview. Melexis: 3Q24 Preview, some auto weakness expected. Montea: Sound results, no sign of tenants slow down. Proximus: Small 3Q24 beat and guidance increase on Domestic, DIGI late arrival; Data centers sold in sale and lease back. Signify: 3Q24 results, some sequential improvement Wereldhave: Strong Dutch LFL growth, guidance confirmed Xior Student Housing: Stronger organic trends
We maintain a defensive stance on the market for 2H24. The long anticipated expectations for interest rate cuts by central banks will finally come to pass. The election fever in the US is reaching boiling point and the conversations are becoming more polarised than before. Also corporate profit growth in Europe slows and the French elections have cast a negative spell. In Germany by-elections in the Eastern part showed a shift to extreme right and left that will make budget decisions even more ...
The rate cut carried out and yet to come (ECB: -125bp to -150bp to come by end-2025e) is a real driver for listed real estate and creates the conditions enabling it to outperform. In this context, we are lifting 23 target prices for the 42 stocks covered. Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing are now our Top Picks. Aedifica (Outperform vs Neutral) should also benefit. Lastly, we are lowering Care Property to Neutral and SFL to Underperform. - >...
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