reports
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2025 Preliminary Results: NII Ahead, B...
CMB’s 2025 preliminary results reaffirmed the sequential recovery momentum in revenue and earnings, thanks to a better NIM performance and solid fee income growth amid a strong equity market performance. However, the provision coverage ratio fell sharply to below 400%, likely due to a high NPL formation rate despite the stable headline NPL ratio. We think CMB’s valuation is relatively rich at this moment given the declining ROE trend and underlying asset quality risks. Maintain HOLD. Target pric...
- Curtis Yeung
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Top Stories Sector Update | China Property In 2025, CR Land and COLI saw 15-20% yoy profit declines and Longfor’s core profit may turn from positive to negative due to weak DP margins. For 2026, the outlook remains constrained, though as it is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, SOEs are expected to have clearer growth targets. In Jan 26, new-home sales in 28 major cities fell 40% yoy, while second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities declined 4% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, but we see...
- Andrew Agita Buntoro
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Philip Wong
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Tham Mun Hon
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Greater China Sector Update | China Property In 2025, CR Land and COLI saw 15-20% yoy profit declines and Longfor’s core profit may turn from positive to negative due to weak DP margins. For 2026, the outlook remains constrained, though as it is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, SOEs are expected to have clearer growth targets. In Jan 26, new-home sales in 28 major cities fell 40% yoy, while second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities declined 4% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, but we se...
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 3Q25: Silver Lining Has Yet To Come.
CMB reported muted results with net profit growing 1.0% yoy due to lower credit cost. PPOP remained soft (-2.5% yoy), dragged by other non-NII and opex growth, partially offset by solid NII growth and strong fee income turnaround. NIM compression narrowed to 3bp on a larger decline in deposit cost. However, we see downside risk to valuation, as CMB’s premium valuation is less justified given its modest earnings growth and lower dividend yield. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$51.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, November 3, 2025
Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
2050 HK ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (2050 HK)
002747 CH ESTUN AUTOMATION
- Audrey Celia
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kai Jie Tang
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Wei Xiang Ku
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 03, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2488 ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
QH QUALITY HOUSES
1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD
ENRG ENERGI MEGA PERSADA
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
1155 MALAYAN BANKING BHD.
C61U CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
AP AP THAILAND
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
HLFG HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
LPN LPN DEVELOPMENT PCL
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
AMM AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
ABANK AFFIN BANK BHD
PSH PRUKSA HOLDING PCL
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CRPU SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
MXNU ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BIMB BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BHD
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
MAYBANK MALAYAN BANKING BHD
VST VSTECS BHD
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
002747 CH ESTUN AUTOMATION
EREIT ESR REIT
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Construction Bank (939 HK): 3Q25: PPOP Miss On Larger NIM Compre...
CCB’s PPOP fell 4.7% yoy, weighed down by 2.7% yoy NII decline on larger NIM compression, a 12.4% decline in other non-NII, and higher opex, partly offset by robust fee income growth. However, net profit rose 4.8% yoy as CCB trimmed provisions by 35.5% yoy amid improving asset quality. We raise our 2025 earnings forecast by 3% on stronger fee income and lower credit costs, despite a softer NIM outlook. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of HK$8.20.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, October 31, 2025
Top Stories Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to re...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
300760 COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
603882 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
01876 GUANGZHOU KINGMED DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
1787 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
002371 CH SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO LTD
NAURA TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO LTD
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Banking: Examining The Surge In Banks’ Financial Investments
We take a closer look at the rapidly-growing financial investments, which now account for 21% of total banking assets. The shift in asset mix has been driven by the increasing supply of government bonds and sluggish loan demand, while bond trading income has become more prominent amid the bullish bond market. However, we expect interest rates to become more volatile going forward, posing downside risks to banks if a sharp rate reversal occurs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CCB.
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses...
CMB’s 2Q25 earnings are within our expectations due to lower credit cost but PPOP was a miss due to muted fee income and larger NIM compression. Asset quality remained largely stable with a modest NPL improvement, but retail risks stay elevated. Meanwhile, management struck a cautious tone on both NIM and retail asset quality. In view of CMB’s limited fundamental catalysts and a less attractive dividend yield, we downgrade CMB to HOLD. Target price: HK$51.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand ...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 2, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H25 on heavy investments. Macau Gaming: Aug 25 GGR sets another post-pandemic high. Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$47.04/Target: HK$51.00): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses expectations on muted fee and larger NIM compression. Downgrade to HOLD. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb23.63/Target: Rmb24.00): 2Q25: In line with profit guidance. Demand and profitability to improve in 2H25. Upgrade ...
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
601012 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
2747 ESTUN AUTOMATION
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Construction Bank (939 HK): 2Q25: Largely in line as higher non-...
CCB’s 2Q25 results were broadly in line as earnings edged up 1.6% yoy, bolstered by a fee income growth recovery and strong trading gains (+1.8x yoy). The earnings increase was partly offset by higher credit costs despite asset quality remaining largely stable in 2Q25. NII declined 1.1% yoy as NIM narrowed 2bp qoq amid falling loan yields. Despite the strong capital base, interim DPS dropped 5.7% yoy, due to a 1.4% profit decline in 1H25 and the recent capital injection. Maintain HOLD. Target pr...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Monday, September 1, 2025
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
2050 HK ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (2050 HK)
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Ming San Soong
- Thailand Research Team
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, September 1, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$115.70/Target: HK$170.00): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud revenue growth; encouraging quick commerce outlook. BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$114.40/Target: HK$90.00): 2Q25: Earnings down over 30% yoy/qoq, missing estimates on margins. Downgrade from BUY to SELL. Cut target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$41.18/Target: HK$51.80): 1H25: Margin misses due to product mix shift; growth story remains unchange...
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
002050 CH ZHEJIANG SANHUA INTELLIGENT CONTROLS CO LTD (002050 CH)
Moody's Ratings affirms Bank of Ningbo's Baa2 deposit ratings; outlook...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has affirmed Bank of Ningbo Co., Ltd.'s Baa2/P-2 long-term/short-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings, ba1 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, Baa2(cr)/P-2(cr) long-term/short-term Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment, Baa2/P-2 long-term/short-term lo...
Moody's Ratings affirms Bank of Ningbo's Baa2 deposit ratings; outlook...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has affirmed Bank of Ningbo Co., Ltd.'s Baa2/P-2 long-term/short-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings, ba1 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, Baa2(cr)/P-2(cr) long-term/short-term Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment, Baa2/P-2 long-term/short-term lo...
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker...
CMB’s 1Q25 net profit dropped 2.1% yoy growth due to a 24% yoy fall in other NII amid rising bond yields and fee weakness. On a positive note, NIM was resilient with a mild 3bp qoq decline due to better funding cost management and a strong recovery in its wealth management business in 1Q25. However, the weaker-than-guided loan growth and the continued deterioration in retail loan quality are concerning, especially in light of the recent changes in the US tariff policy. Maintain BUY. Target price...
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
China Construction Bank (939 HK): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NI...
CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of both fee income and asset quality. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: HK$7.00.
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