Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2630.00) - Epinkly off to a good start in 2024

Q1 sales beat our forecast and consensus due to higher product-related royalties and solid Epkinly sales, while the operating profit margin was softer than expected owing to higher opex. Genmab reiterated the 2024 guidance for sales of DKK18.7bn–20.5bn, opex of DKK12.4bn–13.4bn, and operating profit of DKK4.6bn–7.1bn. We expect a strong pipeline of news flow in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and DKK2,630 target price.

Consensus back in focus and tier-2 deepwater risk

With the start of the Q1 reporting season for Offshore Drilling, we sense increased investor attention on the risk to consensus. Although we like the investment case for its valuation in the out-years (2026), our estimates remain below consensus. We see potential for share price volatility as near-term consensus is revised lower, while investors gradually underwrite 2026 valuations. We also believe the gaps between contracts and increased idle-time risk for tier-2 deepwater rigs are not properly...

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 499 shares at 944.575DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Transocean Inc.: Improved deepwater market and robust backlog provide ...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its contracted revenue backlog of $8.9 billion, constrained by its high debt levels and complex capital structure.

Guidance looks low and consensus high

2024e forecasts unchanged, '25e-'26e up by 1-2%. Q1 was a good start to a busy year. HOLD, TP of DKK 1,000.

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Solid start to the year

Overall, we consider the Q1 results a solid start to the year, with China’s and the premium beer momentum especially encouraging and supporting our view that the unchanged 2024 guidance looks conservative. We see room for positive earnings momentum throughout the year, with good weather providing upside potential. We thus reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Growth slightly ahead but lack of upgrade likely to disappoint

Transocean Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, primarily due to Transocean’s recent fleet status report. Despite having small delays included in the fleet status report, we remain just above the guidance and largely in line with Bloomberg consensus ahead of the Q1 results (due today after market close). We expect Q1 EBITDA of USD195m, largely in line with consensus (USD190m) and just above the guidance (USD188m). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. W...

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.