Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 499 shares at 944.575DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Guidance looks low and consensus high

2024e forecasts unchanged, '25e-'26e up by 1-2%. Q1 was a good start to a busy year. HOLD, TP of DKK 1,000.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Solid start to the year

Overall, we consider the Q1 results a solid start to the year, with China’s and the premium beer momentum especially encouraging and supporting our view that the unchanged 2024 guidance looks conservative. We see room for positive earnings momentum throughout the year, with good weather providing upside potential. We thus reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Growth slightly ahead but lack of upgrade likely to disappoint

Telia Company AB: 1 director

A director at Telia Company AB bought 14,100 shares at 2.140EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Soft Q1, but limited revisions

Telia reported Q1 service revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow below consensus. However, with the SEK300m/year service agreement after the sale of the Danish operation, we have made limited revisions to our 2024–2025e service revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK33 (35).

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Weak Q1 due to higher cost...

Norwegian Air Shuttle traded down c7% on Wednesday on weaker than expected Q1 results hit by higher costs, which made the market question the reiterated 2024 CASK guidance. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK21 (23) on negative estimate revisions, reflecting slightly revised cost assumptions.

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR16.50) - On track

Due to better volumes and prices in the packaging materials division, underlying Q1 earnings were above our expectations. Looking ahead, earnings are set to be supported by higher pulp prices at the same time as pricing power has strengthened for most of Stora Enso’s packaging products. We have made limited changes to our 2024–2027 forecasts, but as we are increasingly confident that Stora Enso will be able to raise its profits to a sustainably healthy level, we have increased our target price t...

Cash flow volatility was not appreciated

Q1: solid underlying growth and reiterated FCF outlook, but the market focused on the (weak) volatile cash flow in Q1. Uncertainty, limited re-rating potential and soft valuation support. HOLD.

Up from a low base

ATH profits next

Weak Q1 in a seasonally small quarter, upbeat outlook kept. Unit costs need to improve - key for confidence. '24e EPS down 2.5%. BUY, TP NOK 21.

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK33, +24%) Q1 24: Weak headline numbers, but due to...

Telia has reported a weak set of headline numbers, but consensus had not fully adjusted for the one-off items the company had flagged before the quarter. Adjusting for these items, EBITDA is c-0.5% light only. Structural OCF (SOCF) is also light vs consensus, but again, this was flagged as a phasing issue pre the quarter, and again it looks like the messaging was not fully incorporated into numbers.

Slight miss but expect limited cons revisions

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Probably a good start to the year

We expect the Q1 results to show Carlsberg had a good start to the year (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). Slightly above consensus, we forecast c2% volume growth YOY and c6% organic revenue growth. Given Q1 is seasonally a small quarter, we believe the FY guidance could be kept for now, but that it remains conservative as usual, and see room for increases during the year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - We expect a solid Q1

Telia reported 7% EBITDA growth in Q3 and Q4 and we believe this robust EBITDA trend has continued in Q1. The solid momentum is expected to come from continued strength in core Telco, but also from a turnaround in the TV&Media business. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Fully valued near-term

We maintain a neutral sector stance, but see near-term setbacks and consider risks tilted to the downside near-term due to strong sector performance in the past month, while market interest rates have risen. We expect two years of zero NAV growth, on average, due to yield expansion, and the sector theme to be deleveraging, with limited capex. We see few potential company-specific catalysts, leaving share prices largely driven by macro factors. We consider the sector fully valued near-term, at an...

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Widerøe set for take-off

Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS NO, Buy) - Widerøe set for take-off (34 pages)