March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Volatile iron ore prices

Rana Gruber reported a mixed set of Q1 results, with accounting and hedging effects as well as volatile iron ore prices, which blurred much of the underlying operational result. We have lowered our 2024–2026e EPS by 1–3% on the results and our updated forecasts for the latest iron ore futures curve and FX changes. We continue to find a 2024e P/E of 7x on current spot rates attractive, while we await the benefits of the company’s upgrade to Fe 65% and potential further upgrades longer-term. We re...

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS sold 13,517 shares at 941.660DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

The weekly navigator

In the past week: 1) we hosted an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office; and 2) Webrock Ventures reported its first quarterly results as a listed company, with its sights set on financial self-sufficiency by 2026.

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Latour to SEK285 (280), but reiterated our HOLD; 2) Kinnevik-owned Lunar raised SEK282m of new capital; and 3) we will host an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office next week.

Guidance looks low and consensus high

2024e forecasts unchanged, '25e-'26e up by 1-2%. Q1 was a good start to a busy year. HOLD, TP of DKK 1,000.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Solid start to the year

Overall, we consider the Q1 results a solid start to the year, with China’s and the premium beer momentum especially encouraging and supporting our view that the unchanged 2024 guidance looks conservative. We see room for positive earnings momentum throughout the year, with good weather providing upside potential. We thus reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Growth slightly ahead but lack of upgrade likely to disappoint

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 12,008 shares at 273.140SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 82/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Metso : Progress on margin reflected with resilience in Q1

>Q1 2024 orders in line but margin below expectations - Metso reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday morning (see first take). They were in line with expectations on order intake, but below expectations on adjusted EBITA (-7%).Order intake was down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%), but up 10.5% sequentially, confirming the rebound in activity that the group was anticipating in the Aggregates division (particularly in the US). Sales were down -7% on ...

Metso : Les progrès sur la marge se ressentent avec sa résilience au T...

>T1 2024 avec des commandes en ligne mais en dessous des attentes sur la marge - Metso a publié hier matin ses résultats T1 2024 (voir first take) qui étaient en ligne avec les attentes sur les prises de commandes, mais en dessous sur l’EBITA ajusté (-7%).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul de -6% en organique (css à -5.8%), mais en hausse séquentielle de 10.5%, confirmant ainsi le rebond de l’activité qui avait été anticipé par le groupe dans la division A...

Striving to improve margins - up to BUY

Weather weight as expected, but a more bullish margin story evolving. We increase our estimates by 5-10% from improved UW. Up to BUY (Hold) with TP NOK 195 (171); 10% upside.

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Small profit miss, but positives too

Q1 profits missed in a seasonally small quarter but also included positives: solid profitability, and strong Aggregates and Service orders. We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% and reiterate our BUY and EUR13 target price. The valuation remains attractive, in our view.

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Financial targets up next

The solid Q1 results were aided by the ongoing gross margin recovery, YOY and QOQ. We expect investor focus from here to be on whether Essity can offset rising raw material costs through agility and pricing power. We see new financial targets and capital allocations as the next potential share-price catalysts; we reiterate our BUY and have edged up our target price to SEK330 (325).

The weekly navigator

The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we raised our target price on Investor to SEK290 (260) as we see continued outperformance characteristics; 2) we cut our target price on Kinnevik to SEK135 (140) but reiterated our BUY, as we see continuously declining writedown risk in a more concentrated growth portfolio; and 3) VNV Global reported an unchanged Q1 NAV QOQ in USD terms.

Pulp fiction in Q1, reality for Q2