GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%). Feb 24 pic...
The HSI and the MSCI China fell 9.2% and 10.5% mom respectively in Jan 24, dragged down by IT and consumer discretionary stocks amid low market confidence and negative geopolitical news flow. The policy easing in late-Jan 24 may have established a bottom, but the timing of a new upcycle remains uncertain, contingent on favourable macro news flow in the near term. Hence, we remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and FII to our BUY list, with additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng.
New Year’s Festival 2024 recorded strong travel growth, bolstered by the ongoing travel consumption upgrade and encouraging promotion policies to stimulate travel demand. This sets a compelling prelude for both companies to capture the resilient momentum of domestic travel demand during the Spring Festival holiday. We still prefer TCOM as it is the key proxy to capture the strong demand for international and outbound travel. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in 4Q23 and 2023: Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the KLCI in Dec 23. Jan 24 pick...
The HSI was flat in Dec 23 but the MSCI China fell 2.6% mom. Despite the announcement of new policy support and prospects of US rate cuts in 2024, investors sold into strength following weaker macro data. With MSCI China trading at 9.0x 12-month forward PE, we expect most negatives to have been priced in. We add the potential beneficiaries of the CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy cut.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls: We add a mix of turnaround stocks and beneficiaries of policy support to our BUY list − CSPC, HKEX, Lenovo, Longfor, Pinduoduo and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance With A 3.7% Return: Our picks are GOTO, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks trounced the FBMKLCI in Nov 23, mostly thanks to Hume’s run-up. De...
TCOM’s 3Q23 net revenue soared 99.4% yoy to Rmb13.8b and was 31% above pre- COVID-19 levels, in line with the street’s estimates. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb4.9b, translating to a net profit margin of 35.6%, beating our and the street’s estimates. TCOM guided for 4Q23 revenue growth of 100-110% yoy, or 20-26% above 4Q19 levels. We believe Trip.com’s rapid growth and outbound travel recovery will be the core growth pillars for 2024. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$420.00 (US$54.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Industrial Automation Demand stabilises with marginal recovery in 4Q23, demand driver to shift in 2024. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$107.40/Target: HK$166.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat; expecting monetisation of ERNIE 4.0. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.50/Target: HK$97.00) 3Q23: Solid earnings beat; key beneficiary of adtech tailwinds. Miniso (MNSO US/NOT RATED/US$27.66) 1QFY24: Earnings beat; strong growth from overseas and...
GREATER CHINA Sector Industrial Automation: Demand stabilises with marginal recovery in 4Q23, demand driver to shift in 2024. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$107.40/Target: HK$166.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat; expecting monetisation of ERNIE 4.0. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.50/Target: HK$97.00): 3Q23: Solid earnings beat; key beneficiary of adtech tailwinds. Miniso (MNSO US/NOT RATED/US$27.66): 1QFY24: Earnings beat; strong growth from overseas and good momen...
We expect e-commerce ads and overseas e-commerce expansion to be the main driving forces spurring stagnant growth in 3Q23 and beyond. In addition, we are optimistic about the better-the-expected growth in game gross profit and on-track OTA data on the back of strong seasonality. We are also looking out for meaningful progress in AIGC development in 3Q23 and better visibility in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: We add a mix of defensives and turnaround stocks − COSCO Shipping, CR Mixc, Great Wall Motor, Innovent, Link REIT and NetEase − to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Domestic Winners: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the FBMKLCI in Oct 23. Nov 23 picks: BUY BURSA, EKOVEST, GENM, ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: We expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Potential Bull Market in 4Q23: Our picks: BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, MAPI, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Handful Of Events To Capitalise On: Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI in Sep 23. Oct 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB a...
MSCI China and HSI fell 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in September as investors’ sentiment was dampened by the weaker macro data and renewed property sector woes. Moreover, higher US bond yields and US dollar strength added to the downside pressure. For October, we expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP.
China is on track for a bumper travel season as reflected in resilient travel pre-sales data. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays being back-to-back this year, the number of travellers for the eight-day holiday period is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels. China Tourism Academy predicts the daily average number of travellers will exceed 100m. We still prefer Trip.com as it is the key proxy to capture the strong demand for international and outbound travel. Maintain OVERWEI...
China’s internet sector delivered solid 2Q23 results with an earnings beat but this was followed by lukewarm 3Q23 guidance from most companies navigating macro uncertainty. In view of the intense competition and saturated growth, internet companies are ramping up AIGC investment and cross border expansion against a favourable regulatory backdrop. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector due to heavy investment in new initiatives leading to margin erosion.
TCOM delivered a strong set of 2Q23 results. 2Q23 net revenue soared 180% yoy to Rmb11.3b and was 29.4% above pre-COVID-19 levels, beating the street’s estimates by 4%. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb3.4b, translating to a net profit margin of 30.5%, beating our and street estimates. TCOM guided 3Q23 revenue growth of 95-100% yoy, or 28-33% above 2Q19 levels (8% above street estimates). Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$418.00 (US$56.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property Management 1H23 results wrap-up: Benefitting from strong property policy in 2H23. Sportswear 1H23 results wrap-up: Expect better sales growth momentum in 4Q23 but discounts may deepen. Results Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$304.00/Target: HK$418.00) 2Q23: Solid results beat; concerns on 2024 growth after the robust recovery. Update Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$2.88/Target: HK$3.89) Takeaways from luncheon. TRADERS’ CORNER Semiconductor Manufacturing Interna...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Management: 1H23 results wrap-up: Benefitting from strong property policy in 2H23. Sportswear: 1H23 results wrap-up: Expect better sales growth momentum in 4Q23 but discounts may deepen. Results Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$304.00/Target: HK$418.00): 2Q23: Solid results beat; concerns on 2024 growth after the robust recovery. Update Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$2.88/Target: HK$3.89): Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications: Inorganic growt...
What's new: Trip.com’s reported 2Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations. Travel activities remain resilient during summer months and heading into mid-Autumn Festival in Sep and National Day holiday in Oct driven by continued release in pent-up demand and further recovery in international flight capacity. We maintain our PT at USD 45. Analysts: Jin Yoon
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
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