A New, Different Beginning While the Malaysian gloves sector charted an impressive turnaround in 2024 after the COVID-19 lows as expected, risk-reward appears less appealing currently as valuations are trading close to the historical mean based on 2025’s full earnings recovery. Despite more optimism emerging following better operating matrixes and several rounds of catch-up upgrades by consensus, we believe that these have been fairly reflected in the recent share price movement. Downgrade to MA...
A director at Hartalega Holdings Berhad sold 1,140,000 shares at 3.900MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
GREATER CHINA Small-mid Cap Highlight Modern Dental (3600 HK/NOT RATED/HK$3.68): Leading global provider of dental prosthetics devices. INDONESIA Update Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ/BUY/Rp7,050/Target: Rp7,800): Expect earnings to recover 8.1% in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM3.32/Target: RM3.66): 2QFY25: Weak headline numbers due to forex losses, but operating matrixes chart strong growth. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of RM3.66. H...
2QFY25: Basking In The Afterglow Of Refinement Harta continued to chart impressive sales volume and ASP growth in 2QFY25, despite facing headwinds such as unprecedented forex losses and higher ramp-up costs. Removing exceptional items, core earnings fell into the red at RM29m in losses (1QFY25: RM37.2m profit). That said, the market will likely look beyond these near-term noises and focus on improvement in core profitability in 2HFY25. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of RM3.66.
US Raises China Gloves Tariffs In Protectionism, Trade Rivalries A further precipitous tariff hike and earlier implementation timeline announced by the US authority on China’s medical-grade gloves are poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment on the Malaysian glove sector. With the sector’s post-pandemic recovery eclipsing earnings amid demand moderation, domestic glovemakers should progressively reclaim market share from China, sustaining concrete ASP trajectories and margin upticks. Maintain O...
1QFY25: Pushing Forward Against The Tide Harta continues to deliver improving sales volume and ASP in 1QFY25, despite facing headwinds such as delayed shipments and higher input costs. Excluding exceptional items, core net profit surged meaningfully qoq to RM37.2m (4QFY24: RM1.9m). We largely retain our view that FY25 prospects remain bright on a sequential orderbook uptick, sustainable ASP trend, efficiency refinement and tailwinds from escalating USChina trade tensions. Maintain BUY with a low...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strategic revamp to revitalise e-commerce GMV growth. Results Wharf Real Estate Investment Co (1997 HK/BUY/HK$20.10/Target: HK$28.30): 1H24: Underlying net profit up 2% on positive retail rental growth and lower funding cost; awaiting cyclical factors to improve. INDONESIA Results United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp24,150/Target: Rp20,000): 2Q24: Continued weakness; in line with consensus estimates. MALAYSIA Sector Utilities: Government likely to award short-term PP...
Blooming In Spring The Malaysian glove sector is officially out of the woods with anticipation of sequential earnings growth coming into fruition throughout 2024. We have also observed a feasible trend of improving operating statistics from the past few quarters. With this and the US’ precipitous tariff hike on China’s medical-grade gloves beginning 2026, we re-affirm our optimism that potential valuation re-rating may continue to catalyse the sector’s positive share price trajectories. Maintain...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pull back last week. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Tuopu and Joyson Electronics. Top SELLs: XPeng. Internet Strategic revamp to foster re-accelerating growth and shareholders’ return. INDONESIA Update Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/BUY/Rp1,240/Target: Rp1,700) ...
4QFY24: Defining Moments Harta’s 4QFY24 results reflect sales volume expansion and marginally higher ASP, but margins were compressed due to delayed cost pass-through. Removing exceptional items, core net profit fell 25% qoq to RM1.8m. Nevertheless, FY25 prospects remain bright on a demand uptick from a customer’s restocking cycle, consistent ASP hikes, and efficiency refinement. The recent deterioration of US-China trade tensions also adds to the positive equation. Downgrade to HOLD with unchan...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales drop wow due to high comparison base. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL and Tuopu. Top SELLs: Li Auto and XPeng. Results Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$58.15/Target: HK$85.00) 1Q24: Solid earnings beat; softer 2Q24; HK$16b share repurchase plan. Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$145.45/Target: US$200.00) 1Q24: Robust earnings beat; stro...
Selective Exporters With Exposure To Related Strategic Sectors To Benefit Further From The Latest Round Of Tariff Hikes We believe the latest round of tariff hikes directed by the US president Joe Biden will lend further strength to selective Malaysian exporters given Malaysia’s geographical neutrality. A statement released by The White House stated that following an in-depth review by the United States Trade Representative, President Biden is taking action to protect American workers and Americ...
Plot Twist From Escalating US-China Trade Tension The precipitous tariff hike announced by US authorities on China’s medical-grade gloves beginning 2026 is poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment on the Malaysian glove sector. While the sector’s recovery plot continues to thicken beyond postpandemic eclipsing earnings and demand moderation, we anticipate domestic glovemakers to progressively reclaim market share from China, sustaining concrete ASP trajectories and future margin upticks. Mainta...
Turning Tides After three years of industry consolidation, early signs of a demand recovery from distributors’ accelerating restocking cycle, inception of regional producers’ ASP upcycle, and potential deterioration of US-China trade tension point to a brighter outlook for Harta. Against the backdrop of these tailwinds, we recalibrated our valuation multiples upwards. Harta remains as our sector pick for its industry-wide top-notch production efficiency. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Eyeing re-rating for refrigerant suppliers as AC dealers front-load for peak sales in 2Q24. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.85/Target: HK$6.00) 2023: Results in line; expect revenue headwinds to persist in 2024. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$8.44/Target: HK$10.60) 2023: Results in line; expect an upbeat 1H24 performance. Maintain BUY. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,713.99/Target: Rmb2,488.00) 2023: Earnings up ...
3QFY24: Lacklustre Results, Impacted By Red Sea Incident Harta’s 3QFY24 results were dragged by sales volume contraction and lower ASP. After excluding the exceptional items, core net profit dropped 91% qoq to merely RM2.4m. Although the acceleration in distributors’ inventory replenishement is an early sign of demand recovery, the industry landscape remains challenging at this juncture. We anticipate better earnings in 4QFY24, premised on margin expansion, shipment of delayed orders and improvi...
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Property: CCL Index stabilises in Jan 24; channel checks on implementation of easing measures on non-PR buyers. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,420): Growing elegantly with solid marketing sales. United Tractors (UNTR IJ/SELL/Rp22,800/Target: Rp20,000): Small downward adjustment to Pama’s fees could impact 2024 NPAT. MALAYSIA Results British American Tobacco (ROTH MK/BUY/RM9.08/Target: RM10.40): 4Q23: Results met expectation...
Overhyped Market Expectations Pose Short-term Downside Risk As expected, the sector’s recovery plot continues to thicken after delivering resilient earnings growth in 3Q23. While more optimism is emerging following better operating matrixes and consensus’ rounds of catch-up upgrades, we deem these to be fairly reflected in the recent aggressive share price movement. Risk-reward appears unappealing currently as valuations are trading close to historical means based on 2025’s full earnings recover...
2QFY24: Emphasising On Efficiency Harta’s 2QFY24 results were boosted by margin and sales volume expansion, outweighing lower ASP. Removing exceptional items, core net profit leaped qoq to RM27.2m. Despite the challenging industry landscape currently, early signs of a demand recovery have been noted from distributors’ accelerating inventory replenishment. We anticipate better earnings in 2HFY24, premised on margin expansion and improving efficiency. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM2.51.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: Disappointing October exports likely a prelude to further weakness. Sector Property: Land markets remain weak, Shenzhen expresses firm support for Vanke. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$84.90/Target: HK$150.00): Strong NBP growth momentum sustained in 3Q23. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp344/Target: Rp440): Expect 9% yoy net profit growth in 2024 from improvement in stores’ productivity. Upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Results Fraser & Neave Holdin...
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