A Glimpse Of Hope Amid Trump Tariff Setback In a landmark decision, a US federal appeals court voted 7–4 to strike down most of President Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), ruling that the administration lacked explicit congressional authority. The verdict delivers a heavy blow to the cornerstone of Trump’s trade policy and marks its second consecutive defeat in the closely watched case of V.O.S. Selections vs Trump. Trump blasted the ru...
1QFY26: Challenges Persist; Prioritising Optimisation While the challenging outlook continues to pressure sales demand, Hartalega’s focus on internal cost optimisation resulted in earnings improving qoq in 1QFY26. Management also guided an improving outlook for the rest of FY26 as US demand recovers after frontloaded inventories are depleted. Nevertheless, intensifying China competition and oversupply dynamics continue to impact earnings. Hartalega was also hit by a RM101m IRB tax assessment. Ma...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property: CR Land’s acquisition of Shanghai projects points to further consolidation towards SOEs; potential easing of capital transfer will be key focus for Hong Kong market. Results Launch Tech (2488 HK/NOT RATED/HK$12.03): 1H25: Robust overseas and software business growth; step-up in dividend. Update Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$559.00/Target: HK$650.00): 2Q25 results preview: Strong game pipeline and AI-powered adtech as key catalysts. INDONESIA ...
Mounting Pressures From Elevated US Tariffs And China Competition The Malaysian glove sector is weathering challenges such as the geopolitical reshuffling, higher US reciprocal tariffs (25%), and intensifying competition from China. Earnings delivery is lagging expectations with a meaningful recovery expected only in 4Q25. Although the sector’s forward valuations are well below the historical average, we acknowledge that there could be a potential long-term structural de-rating. We lower our 202...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Bi-Weekly: Expecting strong 1H25 results. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb277.09 /Target: Rmb390.00) 2Q25: Earnings in line, with margins hitting record-high levels. Maintain A-share at BUY. Downgrade H-share to HOLD. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$44.37/Target: US$55.00) ...
Cyclical Volatility From Episodic Narratives Amid geopolitical reshuffling, the US’ reciprocal tariffs, and intensifying China competitions, the Malaysian glove sector rode through a volatile 1H25. Despite the ytd steep share price correction reflecting mixed investor sentiments, we opine that riskreward remains attractive given the sector’s bargain forward valuations (-2SD below mean). 2H25 earnings will also see sequential improvement on better US replenishments. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
4QFY25: Doubling Down On Optimisation While Harta charted qoq weaker earnings in 4QFY25 due to temporary weakness in US demand, industry dynamics are poised to recover in FY26. This will be mainly catalysed by better volume sales and margin expansion as the recently revised US-China tariffs are implemented. More importantly, management is aggressively reviewing the cost structure, which will further enhance operating efficiency. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of RM2.53, as the ytd share ...
Opportunities In A Ringgit Resurgence Environment The sharp ringgit appreciation driven by de-dollarisation and thus a broader reallocation of capital toward emerging market currencies support our view of a moderate upside for Malaysian equities. Key beneficiaries include importers and companies with high US dollar debt, while exporters may face margin pressure. While historical parallel suggests temporary trading opportunities, we recommend a tactical trading stance, focusing on value-driven op...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Strategies In “Tariff-ied” Pandora Box Despite the US’ further softening stance over the weekend, the lingering effects of Liberation Day announcements (eg the escalating US-China trade war), high US longterm bond rates and fears of future “Trump tantrums” will shackle equity valuations. The risk of a US recession/stagflation remains elevated. While we remain relatively defensive and further reduce our FBMKLCI target, we foresee selective trading opportunities, particularly among heavily sold-do...
A Kaleidoscope Of Perceptions Underneath the facade of geopolitical reshuffling and the US’ reciprocal tariffs, the Malaysian glove sector faces mixed investor sentiments as uncertainty builds up. Nevertheless, the sector’s core fundamentals remain solid as we anticipate sequential earnings growth driven by a full recapturing of US market share. More importantly, ytd retracement and bargain forward valuations are offering an attractive risk-reward balance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking Playing safe amid tariff fears. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.75/Target: HK$2.42) FY26: New rounds of marketing campaigns to fuel growth. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,040/Target: Rp1,900) FY24: Below our and street’s expectations MALAYSIA Sector Gloves ...
Steering Through The Shifts Of A New Global Order Contrary to the earlier rhetoric hinting at milder blanket tariffs, the actual measures were considerably harsher, particularly to countries with significant trade surpluses. However, the exclusion of the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors was a welcome surprise. While this removes an initial overhang, equity risk premium is likely to stay elevated on potential tit-for-tat responses among major economies. Our picks adopt a barbell approach,...
Seasons Of Fall In the last two months, the Malaysian gloves sector faced an unprecedented selldown due to a slower-than-expected recovery outlook on intensifying competition in non-US markets and US distributors’ frontloaded inventories. This was also accelerated by US’ volatile trade policies, causing investors to turn risk-off. Nevertheless, the sector is still on track for sequential earnings growth, with bargain valuations offering attractive riskreward balance. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
Strategy: Bloodbath Deepens As Slowdown Fears Intensify; Stay Defensive Defensive Play In Focus For Malaysian Investors Overnight, US stock markets suffered a brutal selloff, with major indices plunging deep into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.08%, while the S&P 500 slid 2.69%. The Nasdaq Composite took the hardest hit, sinking 4.0%, as rate-sensitive technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff.
4Q24 Results Wrap-up: An Abysmal Quarter We cut our 2024-25 forecasts by 1.3%/2.0% respectively as the 4Q24 results season endured a perfect storm of many non-systemic company-specific issues, resulting in 28% of our universe coverage delivering disappointing results or/and outlook. Although we remain bullish for meaningful recoveries from 2Q25 onwards from the current overly pessimistic risk aversion and in anticipation of easing external headwinds, and retain our valuation methodology, we cut ...
3QFY25: Consolidation In Motion Despite Harta’s impressive sales volume and earnings turnaround in 3QFY25, the cautious tone from management in the post-results briefing led to a steep share price decline of 23% yesterday. We cut FY25-26 earnings following management’s weaker volume sales guidance, but deem that valuations have now fallen to attractive levels. Beyond temporary weakness, the sequential earnings growth trend throughout 2025-26 remains intact. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: RM3.14.
GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and strong AI cloud revenue growth outlook in 2025. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$14.19): 2024: Positive growth in rental income supported stable DPS. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,440): Expect continuation of all-time high marketing sales in 2025 (+10% yoy). MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM2.61/Target: RM3.14): 3QFY25:...
A New, Different Beginning While the Malaysian gloves sector charted an impressive turnaround in 2024 after the COVID-19 lows as expected, risk-reward appears less appealing currently as valuations are trading close to the historical mean based on 2025’s full earnings recovery. Despite more optimism emerging following better operating matrixes and several rounds of catch-up upgrades by consensus, we believe that these have been fairly reflected in the recent share price movement. Downgrade to MA...
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