Cyclical Volatility From Episodic Narratives Amid geopolitical reshuffling, the US’ reciprocal tariffs, and intensifying China competitions, the Malaysian glove sector rode through a volatile 1H25. Despite the ytd steep share price correction reflecting mixed investor sentiments, we opine that riskreward remains attractive given the sector’s bargain forward valuations (-2SD below mean). 2H25 earnings will also see sequential improvement on better US replenishments. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
4QFY25: Doubling Down On Optimisation While Harta charted qoq weaker earnings in 4QFY25 due to temporary weakness in US demand, industry dynamics are poised to recover in FY26. This will be mainly catalysed by better volume sales and margin expansion as the recently revised US-China tariffs are implemented. More importantly, management is aggressively reviewing the cost structure, which will further enhance operating efficiency. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of RM2.53, as the ytd share ...
Opportunities In A Ringgit Resurgence Environment The sharp ringgit appreciation driven by de-dollarisation and thus a broader reallocation of capital toward emerging market currencies support our view of a moderate upside for Malaysian equities. Key beneficiaries include importers and companies with high US dollar debt, while exporters may face margin pressure. While historical parallel suggests temporary trading opportunities, we recommend a tactical trading stance, focusing on value-driven op...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Strategies In “Tariff-ied” Pandora Box Despite the US’ further softening stance over the weekend, the lingering effects of Liberation Day announcements (eg the escalating US-China trade war), high US longterm bond rates and fears of future “Trump tantrums” will shackle equity valuations. The risk of a US recession/stagflation remains elevated. While we remain relatively defensive and further reduce our FBMKLCI target, we foresee selective trading opportunities, particularly among heavily sold-do...
A Kaleidoscope Of Perceptions Underneath the facade of geopolitical reshuffling and the US’ reciprocal tariffs, the Malaysian glove sector faces mixed investor sentiments as uncertainty builds up. Nevertheless, the sector’s core fundamentals remain solid as we anticipate sequential earnings growth driven by a full recapturing of US market share. More importantly, ytd retracement and bargain forward valuations are offering an attractive risk-reward balance. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking Playing safe amid tariff fears. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.75/Target: HK$2.42) FY26: New rounds of marketing campaigns to fuel growth. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,040/Target: Rp1,900) FY24: Below our and street’s expectations MALAYSIA Sector Gloves ...
Steering Through The Shifts Of A New Global Order Contrary to the earlier rhetoric hinting at milder blanket tariffs, the actual measures were considerably harsher, particularly to countries with significant trade surpluses. However, the exclusion of the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors was a welcome surprise. While this removes an initial overhang, equity risk premium is likely to stay elevated on potential tit-for-tat responses among major economies. Our picks adopt a barbell approach,...
Seasons Of Fall In the last two months, the Malaysian gloves sector faced an unprecedented selldown due to a slower-than-expected recovery outlook on intensifying competition in non-US markets and US distributors’ frontloaded inventories. This was also accelerated by US’ volatile trade policies, causing investors to turn risk-off. Nevertheless, the sector is still on track for sequential earnings growth, with bargain valuations offering attractive riskreward balance. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
Strategy: Bloodbath Deepens As Slowdown Fears Intensify; Stay Defensive Defensive Play In Focus For Malaysian Investors Overnight, US stock markets suffered a brutal selloff, with major indices plunging deep into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.08%, while the S&P 500 slid 2.69%. The Nasdaq Composite took the hardest hit, sinking 4.0%, as rate-sensitive technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff.
4Q24 Results Wrap-up: An Abysmal Quarter We cut our 2024-25 forecasts by 1.3%/2.0% respectively as the 4Q24 results season endured a perfect storm of many non-systemic company-specific issues, resulting in 28% of our universe coverage delivering disappointing results or/and outlook. Although we remain bullish for meaningful recoveries from 2Q25 onwards from the current overly pessimistic risk aversion and in anticipation of easing external headwinds, and retain our valuation methodology, we cut ...
3QFY25: Consolidation In Motion Despite Harta’s impressive sales volume and earnings turnaround in 3QFY25, the cautious tone from management in the post-results briefing led to a steep share price decline of 23% yesterday. We cut FY25-26 earnings following management’s weaker volume sales guidance, but deem that valuations have now fallen to attractive levels. Beyond temporary weakness, the sequential earnings growth trend throughout 2025-26 remains intact. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: RM3.14.
GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and strong AI cloud revenue growth outlook in 2025. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$14.19): 2024: Positive growth in rental income supported stable DPS. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,440): Expect continuation of all-time high marketing sales in 2025 (+10% yoy). MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM2.61/Target: RM3.14): 3QFY25:...
A New, Different Beginning While the Malaysian gloves sector charted an impressive turnaround in 2024 after the COVID-19 lows as expected, risk-reward appears less appealing currently as valuations are trading close to the historical mean based on 2025’s full earnings recovery. Despite more optimism emerging following better operating matrixes and several rounds of catch-up upgrades by consensus, we believe that these have been fairly reflected in the recent share price movement. Downgrade to MA...
A director at Hartalega Holdings Berhad sold 1,140,000 shares at 3.900MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
GREATER CHINA Small-mid Cap Highlight Modern Dental (3600 HK/NOT RATED/HK$3.68): Leading global provider of dental prosthetics devices. INDONESIA Update Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ/BUY/Rp7,050/Target: Rp7,800): Expect earnings to recover 8.1% in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM3.32/Target: RM3.66): 2QFY25: Weak headline numbers due to forex losses, but operating matrixes chart strong growth. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of RM3.66. H...
2QFY25: Basking In The Afterglow Of Refinement Harta continued to chart impressive sales volume and ASP growth in 2QFY25, despite facing headwinds such as unprecedented forex losses and higher ramp-up costs. Removing exceptional items, core earnings fell into the red at RM29m in losses (1QFY25: RM37.2m profit). That said, the market will likely look beyond these near-term noises and focus on improvement in core profitability in 2HFY25. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of RM3.66.
US Raises China Gloves Tariffs In Protectionism, Trade Rivalries A further precipitous tariff hike and earlier implementation timeline announced by the US authority on China’s medical-grade gloves are poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment on the Malaysian glove sector. With the sector’s post-pandemic recovery eclipsing earnings amid demand moderation, domestic glovemakers should progressively reclaim market share from China, sustaining concrete ASP trajectories and margin upticks. Maintain O...
1QFY25: Pushing Forward Against The Tide Harta continues to deliver improving sales volume and ASP in 1QFY25, despite facing headwinds such as delayed shipments and higher input costs. Excluding exceptional items, core net profit surged meaningfully qoq to RM37.2m (4QFY24: RM1.9m). We largely retain our view that FY25 prospects remain bright on a sequential orderbook uptick, sustainable ASP trend, efficiency refinement and tailwinds from escalating USChina trade tensions. Maintain BUY with a low...
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