GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
Our Alpha Picks outperformed compared the market (+0.9% vs -0.7%) in Apr 24. In Apr 24, the global market focused on earnings results. The SET index slightly decreased by 0.7% in Apr 24. For May 24, our picks are ADVANC, BSRC, BTG, CPALL, CPF, ERW, MAJOR, TFG, TIDLOR and TU.
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming Apr 24 GGR down 5% mom; downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.10/Target: HK$6.00) 1Q24: Results in line with better NIM performance. LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH/SELL/Rmb18.20/Target: Rmb14.38) 2023/1Q24: Below expectations; inventory write-down wipes out earnings. Downgrade to SELL. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/BUY/HK$9.71/Target: HK$11.70) 1Q24: Earnings miss on higher COR and lower investment income...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Earnings in 4Q23 were quite weak. Stock under our coverage reported aggregate net profit of Bt678.997m in 2023 (vs our estimate of Bt730.176m), declining 9.5% yoy. The poor earnings were pressured by energy, petrochemical and consumer staples (food), while positive earnings were seen in retail and healthcare. Given the strong international tourists arrival driven by Chinese tourists, we see the services sector (tourism and healthcare) maintaining its momentum.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
Although CPF reported lower-than-expected 4Q23 earnings, we still expect to see a strong earnings turnaround in 2024. The key drivers will be: a) higher ASPs, b) lower raw material costs, and c) gains from its divestment of loss-making businesses in 2023. We estimate 2024 net profit at Bt11,054m, up from a net loss of Bt5,207m in 2023. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt22.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB/BUY/Bt8.10/Target: Bt11.60) 4Q23: Earnings beat, Double Deck lined up in 2024. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/HOLD/Bt44.50/Target: Bt46.00) 4Q23: Earnings in line with our forecast and better than consensus’. Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/BUY/Bt19.00/Target: Bt22.00) 4Q23: Softer-than-expected earnings; strong turnaround in 2024. Land and Houses (LH TB/BUY/Bt7.55/Target: Bt9.00) 4Q23: Results slightly above our estimates. Ngern T...
We expect to see a gradual improvement in 4Q23 earnings on a qoq basis, mainly driven by the lower raw material costs. However, we have cut our 2023 bottom line to a loss and 2024 earnings by 13.7%. Although we expect 2023 to be loss making, we expect CPF’s bottom line to turn a profit in 2024 following an improvement in ASPs and lower raw material costs. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt23.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt23.30/Target: Bt30.00) 3Q23: Earnings below estimates; remain positive on outlook ahead. BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB/HOLD/Bt7.30/Target: Bt7.00) 2QFY24: Turnaround in profit from associates and one-off items, still lower than expected. Electricity Generating (EGCO TB/BUY/Bt127.00/Target: Bt200.00) 3Q23: A strong quarter as expected. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt24.00/Target: Bt30.00) 3Q23: Better growth profile at discounted valuati...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Not all companies benefit from falling material prices. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Results Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK/BUY/HK$88.30/Target: HK$112.64): 1HFY23: Hong Kong DP results below expectations; being more prudent in 2024. INDONESIA Update Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp720/Target: Rp1,000): Signs of recovery observed. Upgrade to BUY. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile: Healthy results performance; more EV incentives ...
Although we still expect a loss in CPF’s 3Q23 operation from the low domestic swine prices in Jul-Aug 23, we expect to see earnings turnaround in 4Q23 following better domestic and China swine prices. Also, we expect 2024’s earnings to deliver a strong recovery, driven by better ASPs and share of profit. Share prices have priced-in most negative news. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt26.00.
CPF reported a net loss of Bt4.1b for 2Q23, as lower domestic and China swine prices resulted in weak domestic operations and CTI. Looking forward, we expect to see a hoh earnings recovery in 2H23 from a low base following a recovery in China swine price, Vietnam operations remaining resilient, and raw material costs declining. However, we still need to monitor the domestic swine price outlook. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt20.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Central Pattana (CPN TB/BUY/Bt66.25/Target: Bt80.00) 2Q23: Earnings up 34% yoy and 13% qoq, exceeding expectations. Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/HOLD/Bt19.50 /Target: Bt20.00) 2Q23: Core operation flat qoq; 2H23 earnings to see improvement on a low base. Hana Microelectronics (HANA TB/BUY/Bt52.25/Target: Bt62.00) 2Q23: Huge earnings beat; expect the momentum to persist. Upgrade to BUY. The Erawan Group (ERW TB/BUY/Bt4.82/Target: Bt6.20) 2Q23: Earnings surpassed the no...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: July data mostly below expectations, further monetary easing is needed. Sector Property: Fundamentals of property sector further weaken, greater downward pressure on property prices. Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/SELL/Rmb35.91/Target: Rmb20.00): 2Q23: Electrolyte price drop drags margins; cut target price to Rmb20.00. Maintain SELL. Weimob (2013 HK/HOLD/HK$3.83/Target: HK$4.10): 1H23: Strong beat fuelled by improved macro backd...
CPF’s 2Q23 earnings are expected to improve qoq. However, we still expect CPF to incur losses in 2Q23, mainly due to lower domestic swine prices. China’s swine prices were also sluggish. Although we expect 2H23’s earnings to improve hoh, the recovery momentum remains unexciting. Earnings are expected to decline 72% yoy in 2023, but improve 281.5% yoy in 2024. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt20.00.
ASEAN Economics Quarterly ASEAN Outlook: Gingerly seeking value and diversification as near-term headwinds mount. GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: June PV sales beat estimates due to big price cuts on ICE-cars. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with preference for EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Shipping and Ports: Weak global trade outlook more than priced in. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; CSH (1919 HK/BUY/Target: HK$9.71) and CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$6.65) are our top picks. Update China...
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