CR Gas reported 1H25 core earnings of HK$2,403m (-30.5% yoy), accounting for 52% of our full-year forecast and broadly in line. Earnings were dragged by softer retail gas sales volumes of 20.76b cbm (-0.7% yoy) and 19.3% yoy lower residential connections at 831,000. Upgrade to BUY as the pessimism is fairly priced in, with guidance maintained across volumes, margins and connections, and potential for upside if delivery holds in 2H25. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: HK$22.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$15.84/Target: HK$21.70) 1H25: Revenue slightly misses but operating profit beats; expect mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline for 2025. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$19.05/Target: HK$22.60) 1H25: In line; from earnings drag to guidance-driven re-rating; upgrade to BUY. ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$1.60/Target: US$3.40) 2Q25: Net loss widens; recovery expected in 2H25. Maintain...
A director at China Resources Gas Group Ltd bought 40,000 shares at 23.150HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...
CR Gas reported 2024 core earnings of Rmb4,148m (+0.02% yoy), representing 70% of our full-year forecasts and below expectations. Gas sales volume was dragged by a warm winter; 2024 growth slowed to 2.9% yoy as sales to C&I users fell into negative territories in 2H24. New residential user connection was underwhelming, falling 18.7% yoy to 2.693 households and management is expecting another 7-15% yoy decline for 2025. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: HK$26.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.70/Target: HK$7.50) CCB’s 2024 earnings (+0.9% yoy) were above our expectation, mainly driven by its resilient NIM on better deposit cost management, strong trading gains and lower impairment. Asset quality remains solid but pressure on the retail segment is increasing. MoF will inject Rmb105b of new capital into CCB which will result in a 4.3% equity dilution and 50bp boost in CET1 ratio. We expect a largely neutral market reacti...
CR Gas reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,456.7m (-2.5% yoy), representing 58% of our full-year forecasts and below expectations. Gas sales volume expanded to 20.9b cbm (+5.3% yoy) whereas gas sales’ dollar margin hit Rmb0.54/cbm. The company remains committed to diversifying gas sources and securing sufficient gas supply, in order to trim and ensure stable gas procurement costs. 2024 annual contract coverage ratio improved to 99.7% (+0.4ppt). Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$30.90.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI The decline in manufacturing PMI steepened in August, falling to 49.1% (-0.3ppt mom), with all sub-indices lower except suppliers’ delivery time. Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3% (+0.1ppt mom), aided by an improvement in new orders. Overall, the PMI report points to the further slowing of economic activities. The activity for enterprises of all sizes declined but large-sized enterprises remained the most robust compared to small- and medium-sized firms. Sect...
CR Gas reported 2023 earnings of HK$5,223.7m (+10.4% yoy), below expectations. Gas sales dollar margin recovered to Rmb0.51/cbm (+Rmb0.06/cbm), but the lower contribution from the gas connection segment weighed on overall margin. Retail gas sales volume was up 8.1% yoy to 38.78b cbm, with 2024 gas sales volume guided to grow 6-8%. Integrated energy recorded sales volume of 1.59b kWh (+58.0% yoy) with huge growth potential ahead. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$27.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.48/Target: HK$6.50) 2023: Below expectations; slower-than-expected pace of capacity expansion. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$11.26/Target: HK$19.42) 2023: Results beat expectations; watching for stabilisation of profitability in 2024. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$24.9...
CR Gas reported 1H23 earnings of HK$3,545.3m (+16.4% yoy). Earnings growth was partly boosted by the HK$694m one-off gain from associate disposal, considering gross profit was flat yoy. Although retail gas sales volume was 6.9% higher yoy, it was offset by the 21.7% yoy decline in new residential connections. Dollar margin recovered to Rmb0.50 per cbm given the gradual completion of cost pass-through for residential users. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$26.90.
GREATER CHINA Results Anhui Conch (914 HK/BUY/HK$22.00/Target: HK$28.30): 1H23: In line; industry-leading performance. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$22.35/Target: HK$26.90): 1H23: In line; gas sales growth offset by weak new connections. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb107.50/Target: Rmb138.00): 2Q23: Margin a key concern. EVE Energy (300014 HK/BUY/Rmb48.60/Target: Rmb92.00): 2Q23: Miss on margins but beat on revenue. Maintain BUY. Cut target price to Rmb92.00. Frontage Hol...
CR Gas reported 2022 earnings of HK$4,733.5m (-26.0% yoy), below market expectations. Gross margin declined 4.9ppt to 19.2%, mainly due to a decline in gas distribution’s dollar margin to Rmb0.45/cbm. Gas sales volume was up 5.3% yoy to 35,890m cbm, slower than the previously guided high single-digit growth. New residential connection was rather resilient at 4.08m households (+15.7% yoy). Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$35.10.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to further recovery, but employment still soft. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) 2022: Below expectations; recognition of RMB2,045m in impairment provision. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$12.04/Target: HK$13.48) 2022: Core earnings a slight beat; expecting earnings decline in 2023. Maintain BUY. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14) 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sale...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) :2022: Below expectations; recognition of Rmb2,045m in impairment provisions. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14): 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sales growth in 2023 with strengthened landbank. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$28.95/Target: HK$35.10): 2022: Below expectations; gas shortages in 4Q22 weighed on margins. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: We expect higher volatility in March, adding Zhongsheng Group to our SELL list. New BUY ideas include Anhui Conch, CM Bank, Desay SV, Fenjiu, and Sunny Optical. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Portfolio Overhaul After Gains in Feb 23: Our picks: HMSP, ROTI, BBYB, BMRI, BUKA, SMGR, EXCL, KLBF and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Blockchain And Reopening Winners: Our Alpha Picks fell significantly more than the FBMKLCI in Feb 23. Ma...
We expect higher volatility in March as the positive news from the Two Sessions could be drowned out by concerns over tighter US dollar liquidity. We also do not expect aggressive 2023 earnings guidance during the current earnings season. We are thus adding one more name, Zhongsheng Group, to our SELL list. New additions to our BUY list are Anhui Conch, China Merchant Bank, Desay SV, Fenjiu and Sunny Optical.
MSCI China rose a further 12.3 % in January, leading to a 52.1% rally from Oct 22 lows. We continue to expect some consolidation (or profit taking) in February, ahead of the earnings season. Hence, we take profit on earlier BUY calls and add SELL names to hedge against the expected market pullback.
Global natural gas prices have plunged by close to 50% in the past one month subsequent to the unseasonably warm winter season in the northern hemisphere. This could translate into lower gas costs to city-gas distributors. The earlier-than-expected lifting of COVID-19 restrictions provides a clearer visibility on the demand recovery after a flattish consumption growth in 2022. We remain cautious with stiff competition expected for LNG in 2023. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
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