We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Teknosa: good things come in small packages (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 3Q23 delivery • Bank Handlowy: solid 3Q23, DPS feasible and attractive, still a reason to own the stock NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 3Q23 beat on costs POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: strong bottom-line beat in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Ulker: 3Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 3Q23 in line operationally, strong bottom-line beat on deferred tax income NEUTRAL • Public P...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 October) • Kalekim: 3Q23 - strong set of results, but failed to meet expectations NEGATIVE • Arcelik: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Enea: sees PLN 264m maximum impact from cut in retail tariff NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: ICCJ rejects revision of Volksbank case • TeraPlast: 3Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Ford Otosan: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tofas: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tupra...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: final election results • Santander Bank Polska: issues profit warning on FX mortgage saga costs in 3Q23E • MOL: Hungarian Government agrees to reduce royalties • Shoper: takeaways - conference call on home.pl agreement NEUTRAL • Dom Development: advance dividend of PLN 5.5/share POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: BoD proposes DPS of TRY 5.6818181 NEUTRAL • Dino: acquisition of 75% of online cosmetic store for PLN 61m • Polish telecoms: 5G frequencies in Poland sold for PL...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Dogus Otomotiv: 2Q23 - strong results, as expected NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: approval from General Authority for Competition to buy Faden Media POSITIVE • PCF Group: settlement agreement sets earn-out for Incuvo at PLN 2.05m • Benefit Systems: dismissal of BFT's appeal by the Competition and Consumer Protection Court NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: release date for The Invincible set as 6 November 2023 NEUTRAL • Polish media: ad market increases by 6.5% yoy to PLN 3.1bn in...
Domestic demand shows signs of slowdown… There has been a noticeable negative noise about the auto demand over the past few weeks. Second hand sales (light vehicles) dropped by 17% y/y in June, while availability of supply has improved based on anecdotal evidence. The rise in borrowing costs, coupled with limited credit availability, and deterioration in affordability of car purchases have constrained the demand. Following 63% y/y growth during the first 7 months of the year, we project the lig...
HEADLINES: • Isbank: 2Q23 highlights - subsidiary profits boom • Coca-Cola Icecek: 2Q23 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Brisa: 2Q23 EBITDA margin up to 22%, volumes fall 8% yoy on exports • Romania macro: NBR holds the policy rate unchanged • Lamda Development: rundown of key value drivers (highlights from the CMD) POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 120m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • CEZ: State reportedly seeking to acquire gas network operators N...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: 2Q23E beat on COR leads to upside potential for 2023E earnings expectations POSITIVE • mBank: solid 2Q23 numbers - amid symbolic net loss, we have positive takeaways • National Bank: 2Q23 highlights - strong NIM, upgrades guidance similar to peers • Logo Yazilim: TeleSystem acquires Logo's local competitor, Mikro NEGATIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: to acquire Group A shares of Dogus REIT NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat/Wirtualna Polska: CPS audience share at 22.25%, while WP TV at 0....
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: 1Q23 results and earnings call POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 1Q23 slightly above expectations, large share buyback launched NEUTRAL • Tauron: 1Q23 results in line with prelims • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q23 results - better-than-expected margins • EME macro/strategy: May surveys show cooling activity, falling inflation • Kazakhstan macro: notes from our trip • Inter Cars: earnings call takeaways - high 5Y capex programme to trigger profitability improvement NEUTRAL • Telecom...
HEADLINES: • Turkey strategy: Turkish gambit - May 2023 elections • OTP Bank: books very strong start to 2023E, with 1Q23E implying 20%+ ROE POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q23 - good quarter, FFO yield in high teens POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q23 results - in line, except for one-off quake tax hit on NI NEUTRAL • SOK Marketler Ticaret: higher-than-expected bottom line in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Isbank: 1Q23 highlights - showing similar trends, but go...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: reports beat in 1Q23 delivery and trading cheap POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 1Q23 results - EBITDAaL up 6% yoy, 2% above the consensus POSITIVE • TeraPlast: weaker-than-expected sales and net losses in 1Q23 NEGATIVE • Romgaz: 1Q23 key operational results NEGATIVE • Hungary macro: MNB kickstarts the easing cycle • Richter: AGM rejects higher dividend proposal NEUTRAL • OTP Bank: changes to the windfall tax for Hungarian banks favourable on the margin • Ford Otosan: 1Q23E e...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Middle East oil services: not boring, drilling (initiating on Arabian Drilling with a BUY and ADNOC Drilling with a HOLD) • Sok Marketler: 4Q22 in line operationally, 2023E guidance signals room for upward estimate revisions POSITIVE • U:lker: 4Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Tauron: 4Q22 prelims - EBITDA beat and net loss miss driven by mining, core assets broadly in line NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: USD 24.2m exposure to SVB NEGATIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: receives EUR 150m to finance ...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: weaker-than-expected 4Q22 results, disappointing dividend proposal NEGATIVE • Enea: 4Q22 prelims - unimpressive numbers, depressed by weak operations and supply provisions NEUTRAL • Addiko Bank: 4Q22 results review - net profit almost double vs. 2021 • Greece macro: Greek GDP grows 5.9% in 2022 • Georgia macro: significant protests against the law on foreign agents • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q22 beats consensus estimates, management upbeat on outlook POSITIVE • Benefit Syste...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q22 miss as EBITDA fell yoy in all markets, bar Russia NEGATIVE • Aselsan: strong 4Q22 earnings beat, but no FY23E guidance surprise POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 4Q22 results miss expectations NEGATIVE • Migros: operating performance remained very weak in 4Q22 NEGATIVE • Duna House: FY22 results above our estimates, driven by strong Italy, DPS proposal implies 26% yield POSITIVE • LiveChat Software: 3Q22-23 - EBITDA +56% yoy, 4% below consensus; cooperation with OpenAI confi...
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