reports
John Keells Holdings Plc: 1 director
A director at John Keells Holdings Plc sold 2,500,000 shares at 22.300LKR and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: Equity Strategy - Deep Value Unveiled As Hyperinflation Sub...
* As hyperinflationary dynamics begin to subside, the residual effect has unveiled a large dislocation in valuations of listed domestic players. * Steep price increases taken by domestic firms have been more than enough to offset a decline in volumes over 2022, resulting in strong revenue and earnings growth to new highs, despite a deteriorating macro picture. With the expansion in bottom line to new highs, it is our view that valuations need to adjust accordingly with the risk premium ...
JKH.N0000 JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC
ACL.N0000 ACL CABLES
CARG.N0000 CARGILLS (CEYLON) PLC
CCS.N0000 CEYLON COLD STORES
CTC.N0000 CEYLON TOBACCO
DIST.N0000 DISTILLERIES CO. OF SRI LANKA PLC
LLUB.N0000 CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC
HHL.N0000 HEMAS HOLDINGS
LION.N0000 LION BREWERY
NEST.N0000 NESTLE LANKA
GLAS.N0000 PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC
- Naveed Majeed
John Keells Holdings: Inching Closer To Coveted Gaming Operation at Ci...
* We view the Cabinet approval last month to grant licenses to gaming operators and regularize the industry in the country as a key development in facilitating a gaming facility at Cinnamon Life. In line with this approval, we note the gazetting of casino regulations in the country is likely to happen soon. * We maintain that the full economic potential of the Cinnamon Life project will only be unlocked through the proposed operation of a gaming facility at the resort. * We expect ...
- Naveed Majeed
John Keells Holdings: Inching closer to coveted gaming operation at Ci...
* Budget 2022 – 7.16 Leisure License Fee – “It is proposed to issue a license under goods and services tax for the designated areas to be developed as special zones for leisure activities” * We view the proposed issuance of the new special zone license in Budget 2022, under the GST umbrella to indicate a favorable outcome for the planned gaming operation at Cinnamon Life * Under the provisions for the proposed new Special Goods and Services tax, sectors including tobacco, liquor, v...
- Naveed Majeed
John Keells Holdings: An ecosystem transformation unlocking unrealized...
* We assign a BUY rating on JKH with an FY-22E TP of LKR 220.00 (upside of 69.2% and TSR of 71.5%). * The stock price remains well below the intrinsic value of the company, and current price levels provide investors with an attractive entry point. * Several of the company’s core businesses enjoy long-term market leadership positions, and are well positioned to benefit from long-term growth in the modern retail, consumer, leisure, and financial sectors. * Furthermore, the compa...
- Naveed Majeed
John Keells Holdings: Sri Lanka: JKH SL - On slow path to earnings rec...
Including estimate revisions, we maintain our SOTP valuation-based 12-month target price at LKR 175.00/share. Including a forecast DPS of LKR 6.00 for FY22E, we expect a total return of +17.5%. BUY. JKH reported a 3Q FY21 recurring profit to equity holders of LKR 992mn, down 58.6%. Better than expected interest income resulted in 2Q earnings beating our estimate. Looking ahead, Cinnamon Life earnings will enter the books in 4Q FY21E with JKH beginning to handover residential units through the...
- Isuri Munasinghe
- Kavinda Perera
- Lakshini Fernando
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: 2021 Equity Strategy - Zero In On The Recovery
* Colombo All Share Price Index ( recovered all losses since bottoming out in May 56 7 since May, +8.6% YTD) A Manufacturing drive led the gains opportunities remain in large caps that are yet to pickup * Negative interest rates is the key catalyst equities will remain the preferred asset class in 2021 amidst a low interest rate environment * We forecast ASPI to reach 7 400 7 600 in 2021 with local investors continuing to carry the mantle * Global investors would look to rebal...
SAMP.N0000 SAMPATH BANK
HNB.N0000 HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC
COMB.N0000 COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON
AAIC.N0000 SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC
JKH.N0000 JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC
AEL.N0000 ACCESS ENGINEERING
CCS.N0000 CEYLON COLD STORES
HHL.N0000 HEMAS HOLDINGS
RCL.N0000 ROYAL CERAMICS LANKA
- Naveed Majeed
John Keells Holdings: 2Q FY21 - Further upside still warranted; 4Q to ...
Including revisions to estimates, our DCF valuation-based 12-month target price moves to LKR 163.00/share (previously LKR 134.00/share), and including a forecast DPS of LKR 4.00 for 2H FY21E, we expect a total return of +18.2%. BUY. JKH reported a 2Q FY21 recurring profit to equity holders of LKR 680mn. Better than expected earnings from Retail, Consumer and Financial Services, resulted in 2Q earnings beating our estimate, while also offsetting the notable loss in Leisure. Looking ahead, Cinn...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
John Keells Holdings: Valuation continues to provide solid upside
We maintain our DCF-based target price at LKR 134.00/share, and including a forecast DPS of LKR 6.00, we expect a total return of +26.4%. BUY. JKH reported a 1Q FY21 recurring net loss to equity holders of ~LKR 1.7bn. While earnings across the businesses declined as a result of the lockdown during the quarter, the net loss of LKR 2.5bn in the Leisure business had the strongest impact on Group performance. Looking ahead, we expect Consumer and Retail to see the fastest earnings recovery with...
- Isuri Munasinghe
- Kavinda Perera
- Lakshini Fernando
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka Focus List: 8 stocks – a mix of value and growth
Equities saw a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in May and June, largely driven by local participation, as foreign investors continued to exit. The ASPI has seen a measured upward move, and the trend seems to be continuing. With economic activities resuming, we see our base case economic scenario taking effect. While major debt-repayment concerns are somewhat easing, bond markets indicate that the fiscal risk is being priced in. We highlight eight stocks, which hold upside potential in the current envi...
- Nirgunan Tiruchelvam
The EM consumer stocks at risk of bankruptcy
In the summer of 2015, I met Prof. Ed Altman at a lecture in New York. He devised the Altman Z-score in 1968 and first published his formula 50 years ago, after doggedly sifting through thousands of pages of annual reports to obtain the data for his analysis. The Altman Z-score became the gold standard for bankruptcy analysis. The Altman Z-score is a formula for determining whether a company is headed for bankruptcy. It takes into account profitability, leverage, liquidity, solvency, and acti...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
John Keells Holdings: Recovery delayed, yet valuation provides solid u...
We incorporate the impact on earnings for FY 21E and value JKH at LKR 134/share (previously LKR 180/share) on our DCF-based valuation. Including a forecast DPS of LKR 6.00, we expect a total return of +20.9%. We revise our rating to a Buy from Hold. JKH reported a 4Q FY20 recurring net profit to equity holders of cLKR 2.8bn (-26.3% YoY) with revenues up 2.8% YoY and EBIT margins down 3.2ppts YoY to 4.5%. Looking forward, we expect Consumer and Retail to see the fastest earnings recovery with ...
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
Consumer sector drives earnings upside; downgrade to Hold
JKH is currently trading at 11.7x our FY21e earnings. Including changes to our estimates, our SOTP valuation-based target price moves to LKR180/share (previously LKR75/share). Including a dividend of LKR6.00/share, we derive a total shareholder return of +11.1%. This is as result of the stock price rallying over the past few weeks. Hence, we revise our rating to a Hold from a Buy. JKH benefits from earnings upside at its subsidiaries CCS and KFP Largest impact to JKH earnings comes from CCS a...
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Quarterly Highlights_John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH)_1QFY18
JKH reported a 19% YoY increase in earnings for 1QFY18, amid healthy topline growth (+18% YoY). We project full year earnings of Rs. 18.2bn for FY18E, +12% YoY. At its current price of Rs. 174.00, JKH trades at a FY18E P/E of 13.3x, at the lower end of its historical P/E valuation range despite strong buying interest in recent months.
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Quarterly Highlights_John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH)_3QFY17
​ JKH reported a healthy 32% YoY increase in 3QFY17 earnings, supported by strong performances across all business sectors, except property (due to the skew from significant revenue recognition on ‘7th Sense’ in the corresponding quarter last year), coupled with a sharp increase in net finance income amid 1) an increase in short term investments in a rising interest rate environment; and 2) rupee depreciation (given the Group’s exposure to dollar borrowings). We have revised our full year proj...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Quarterly Highlights_John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH)_2QFY17
JKH reported an 8% YoY increase in 2QFY17 earnings, with strong performances from its leisure and consumer foods & retail businesses (54% YoY PBT growth and 55% YoY PBTgrowth respectively), offsetting a drop in profitability for the transportation and property sectors (-18% YoY and -81% YoY PBT declines respectively).We maintain our full year earnings projection of Rs. 15.6bn for FY17 (+11% YoY). At its current price of Rs. 151.00, JKH trades at a FY17E P/E of 13.2x, in-line with the diversified...
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Corporate Update_John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH)_September 2016
Executive SummaryStrong medium term growth prospects for leisure and consumer foods & retail businessesPlans to remove the current minimum room rate regulation for star-class Colombo city hotels w.e.f. March 2017 should, in our view, have a positive impact for JKH’s two existing city propertiesand planned new 800 room hotel over the medium term, by supporting price flexibility and thereby improving competitiveness vs. 1) lower priced regional hotel properties (particularly in the MICE segment)...
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Quarterly Highlights_John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH)_1QFY17
JKH reported a 9% YoY increase in 1QFY17 earnings, supported by a strong performance from the Consumer Foods & Retail business (+48% YoY PBT growth) coupled with improvedassociate contribution from SAGT on the back of double digit growth in throughput. A drop in Property sector PBT (-72% YoY) was expected, given the sector’s revenue recognition cycle.Leisure sector PBT was flat YoY, with an improved performance from the city hotel properties (55%-60% occupancy in 1QFY17 vs. 50% occupancy in 1Q...
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