reports
- Jin Yoon
GOTO 1Q23 Results: Growth to Moderate in 2Q
What’s New: Churn in lower quality users, tougher comps coupled with macro uncertainties could mean that growth may continue to moderate in 2Q. While near-term top-line visibility remains limited, margin guidance remains intact where group-level adjusted EBITDA would continue to improve QoQ and turn positive within 4Q23. We maintain our PT at IDR 115 and maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
GOTO: 4Q22 Results - Margin Guidance Intact
What's new: Margin guidance remains intact where contribution margin could turn positive within 1Q23, and group-level adjusted EBITDA would gradually improve QoQ to turn positive within 4Q23. While margin outlook is encouraging, we are cautious on the execution as challenges remain to maintain market share without having to remain aggressive in promotions in a price sensitive environment. We lower our PT from IDR 130 to IDR 115 and maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Our revised PT of IDR 115 implies a...
- Jin Yoon
GOTO 4Q22 Updates: Positive Adjusted EBITDA By 4Q23
What’s new: GoTo provided an updated outlook last month where the company expects adjusted EBITDA to turn positive within 4Q23, while group contribution margin to turn positive within 1Q23 which would be four quarters ahead of the previous guidance. Despite the accelerated profitability guidance, we remain cautious as execution could be an opportunity or a concern whether the group would be able to maintain market share without having to remain aggressive in promotions/subsidies in a price sensi...
- Jin Yoon
New Street: GOTO 3Q22 Results - Accelerated Path to Profitability
What's new: Margins continue to improve as 3Q contribution margin came in above our expectations and above the previously guided range. Company-level contribution margin breakeven timeline could come in 1-2 quarters ahead of the initial guidance driven by continued cost control initiatives. Despite the positive margin outlook, we remain cautious as execution could be an opportunity (or a concern) whether the group would be able to maintain market share without having to remain aggressive in prom...
- Stevanus Juanda
GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Unjustifiable Valuation, Initiate Cov...
Despite the company’s strong growth potential and market leadership position, GOTO’s valuation is unjustifiable. In terms of price/sales, GOTO is trading at more than 5x premium to its regional peers and 3x to its domestic peers. GOTO is unlikely to generate profits in the next five years, given the potential 10% EPS dilution each year for 10 years. Our target price is based on a more aggressive valuation method than the one used for BUKA. Initiate coverage with SELL and target price of Rp240 (1...
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Stevanus Juanda
GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Unjustifiable Valuation, Initiate Wit...
Despite the company’s strong growth potential and market leadership position, GOTO’s valuation is unjustifiable. In terms of Price/Sales, GOTO is trading at a more than 5x premium to its regional peers and 3x to its domestic peers. GOTO is unlikely to generate profits in the next five years, given potential 10% EPS dilution each year for 10 years. Our target price is based on a more aggressive valuation method than the one used for BUKA’s. Initiate coverage with SELL and target price of Rp240 (1...
- Jin Yoon
New Street: GOTO 2Q22 Results - Road to CM Profitable by 1Q24
What's new: 2Q results were largely in-line with expectations where gross revenues and GTV both came in at the high-end of the guided range. The company provided margin breakeven timeline where group contribution margin is expected to turn positive starting in 1Q24. Despite the positive margin outlook, we remain cautious as the path to profitability hinges on execution of multiple drivers including 1) increase monetization rate; 2) increase user cross pollination; and 3) significant reduction in...
- Jin Yoon
New Street: GOTO - Initiating with NEUTRAL Rating at IDR 295; Waiting ...
What’s New: We are initiating Goto Gojek Tokopedia PT (GOTO IJ) with a NEUTRAL rating at a PT of IDR 295, which implies 20.9x FY23E EV/Rev. Our neutral view is based on concerns about its path to profitability which hinges on execution of multiple drivers including 1) increase monetization rate; 2) increase user cross pollination; and 3) significant reduction in S&M and customer incentives. While we remain constructive about GoTo’s long-term potential in the Indonesia market, execution could be ...
- Sumeet Singh
- Sumeet Singh
- Sumeet Singh
- Sumeet Singh
GoTo IPO
GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company. The company was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between two of Indonesia’s largest unicorns Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player. The merger resulted in GoTo having its fingers in a whole lot of digital pies including Ride-Hailing, Food Delivery, Digital Payments, Digital Finance, and e-commer...
- Sumeet Singh
GoTo pre-IPO
GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. The company has filed its prospectus today. GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company. The company was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between two of Indonesia’s largest unicorns Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player. The merger resulted in GoTo having its fingers in a whole lot of digital pies including Ride-Hailing, Food Delivery, Dig...
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