Sats (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Time for a breather

Q1 was slightly below expectations and the CMD targets were broadly in line with our forecasts and consensus. We have raised our target price to NOK37 (34) on higher estimates but have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as we find the valuation fair following the recent strong share price performance.

Sweden needed for a homerun

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

EBIT 4% below, strong growth expected

EBIT 4% below on 4% higher cost. Members strong, +2% vs cons. Targets EPS of over NOK 3

Storytel (Hold, TP: SEK83.00) - Struggled to live up to expectations

Investors had grown accustomed to strong results after five consecutive quarterly ‘high quality’ beats. However, its Q1 results did not meet MF consensus, which dents the short-term momentum of the story, in our view. We believe Storytel could reverse the negative sentiment at its 15 May CMD, but remain on the sidelines to see if the high bar from consensus is revised. The valuation remains undemanding, in our opinion, as we forecast adj. EBIT growth of 25% YOY in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, an...

Attractive entry point amid strong growth path

Burning calories, stacking profits

Q1: solid overall but a tad light

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - On track towards full-year targets

Telia reported a solid Q1, with 1.8% service revenue growth YOY, 6.7% EBITDA growth, and SEK1.7bn in FCF. The performance strengthens our view that Telia can reach its full-year targets. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK39 (38.5).

Telia Company AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Telia Company AB bought 36,000 shares at between 35.430SEK and 35.750SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Good Q1, but heading for deceleration

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 37, +5%) Q1 25: Impressive EBITDA acceleratio...

Telia has reported a good set of results, with SR, EBITDA, capex and all-in FCF all better than consensus expectations. The company sounded a note of caution on the call that Q1 Group trends were better than we should expect for the full year; having EBITDA and FCF in the bag already is a good thing, but full year guidance has been reiterated not raised.

Small adj. EBITDA beat, unchanged guidance

Heads-up for report 24 April

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.50) - Cost reductions visible in Q1e

Telia’s Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 24 April. Due to a changed reporting structure, there is no meaningful consensus. However, we believe our forecast will be about in-line with an updated consensus. We see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to >5% following a personnel reduction. We reiterate our BUY and raise the target price to SEK38.50 (38).

Revised estimates due to divisional split

Q1e: solid growth and expanding margins

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

Savings to boost solid EBITDA growth

Storytel (Hold, TP: SEK96.00) - A story on pause

We continue to see a neutral risk/reward ahead of Storytel’s Q1 results and strategy update in May, as expectations have crept up with recent share price gains. Its step-change in profitability and cash flows is mainly explained by gross-margin expansion, and limited low-hanging fruit remains, in our view. Thus, we see less upside potential for meaningful consensus revisions to propel the stock higher. Valuation is undemanding, as we forecast EPS growth of 32% YOY in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD ...