reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos & Tower Outlook 2026: Grind higher expected, Unicom t...
After a banner 2024 (+33% on average), 2025 saw further absolute upside for the Chinese telcos, albeit underperforming a strong local index (HSI +32%). Valuations have increased relative to the past, but the stocks remain cheap in our view, and should grind higher, as modest top line growth and falling capex lead to decent cash flow and shareholder remuneration growth.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q2 FY26 review: Remain constructive as Jio’s IPO nears
India’s mobile revenue growth moderated as expected, after lapping last year’s tariff increase. As the IPO of Jio nears, we foresee another potential price increase. Separately for Vodafone Idea, we think AGR relief seems likely but we question whether this is sufficient to enable the company to reach “escape velocity” and become a viable 3rd operator again.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 25 review: Earnings resilient despite muted topline
Chinese telcos faced slower service revenue growth on mobile headwind. Despite the muted topline, cost control remained decent as China Telecom continues to grow EBITDA while Unicom starts to stabilise after three consecutive YoY declines. Earnings grew low to mid single digits for all three, suggesting 6-7% dividend yields in 2026
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 25 review: Improving margin, lower capex
Service revenue growth stayed modest with China Telecom improving while peers slowed. EBITDA margins are expanding which drove mid-single digit earnings growth. YTD capex is down 16% YoY ahead of the 9% fall guided for full year. China Telecom will be added to the Hang Seng Index from next week. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.
Indian Telcos Q1 FY26 review: Strong but moderation expected as it la...
Mobile trends accelerated with margin expansion a recurring theme across the board. Both Jio and Bharti have recently discontinued their lowest entry pack which should sustain ARPU in the low-double digits, however the bullishness in mobile trajectory appears to have already been reflected in consensus.
Bharti Airtel Ltd: 6 directors
A director at Bharti Airtel Ltd sold 71,000,000 shares at 1,814.080INR and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q1 25 review: Better profitability despite slower topl...
Service revenue trends slowed in Q1 amid macro headwinds, but EBITDA returned to growth. This continued to drive earnings and therefore dividend growth. With capex continuing to fall in absolute terms, the Chinese telcos continue to look cheap. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.
Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive
India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 24 review: Still growing; continued fall in absolut...
Chinese Telcos saw service revenue return to mid-single digits growth in 4Q24. Despite a blip in EBITDA trend, the industry ended 2024 with 6% earnings growth which translated to higher dividend payouts (CM: 73%, CT: 72%, CU: 60%).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 24 review: Macro continues to impact the top line
Service revenue trend kept steady relative to Q2, albeit being slower than before due to macro headwinds. Yet earnings momentum continued to trend in the mid-single digits overall as we saw good cost control by China Telecom again (acceleration in EBITDA) while peers were cushioned by lower D&A costs (back by easing capex).
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile VIL – Nationalisation beckons, and implications for Bha...
With the company unlikely to have been able to engineer a meaningful recovery by the end of the moratorium on payments to the govt, and the stock trading below the level at which it can issue new shares, we see the most likely outcome now as creeping nationalisation. Bad for VIL, but great for Bharti and Jio. We discuss implications for Indus in a separate note out today.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong earnings despite softer topline; ...
Despite the slowdown in service revenue trend from softer macro, Chinese operators still delivered a strong earnings growth. Interim dividends rose by 7-22% YoY as all three raised payout ratios. Despite the share prices already roughly doubling, we remain bullish on exposure to China’s structural enterprise theme, improving capital intensity and improved shareholder remuneration.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Bharti follows Jio with price hikes, but perhaps not as...
Bharti has immediately followed Jio's price hike announcement, with an announcement that it is set to raise its mobile prices by between 10% and 21%. We calculate the average increase is slightly lower than Jio. The change would be effective from 3rd July too which means the full impact of the tariff hike would only be felt from Q3 FY25.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Price hikes priced in?
Jio leads India's first mobile hike since December 2021; we expect peers to follow. The announcement was made after the conclusion of the spectrum auction where Jio only participated modestly. This is thus structurally positive. However, that both Bharti and VIL are trading down on this news is indicative of how much good news is already priced into Indian mobile. Our thoughts below.
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