Expert speaker call: latent market share gains

Elisa Oyj: 1 director

A director at Elisa Oyj sold 10,000 shares at 45.730EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Efficient delivery

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.00) - Slightly soft revenue trends

The Q1 report was on the weak side, with slower Mobile Service revenue growth and limited International Software Services growth. We have made small negative revisions to our 2025–2026e revenues and reiterate our HOLD and EUR47 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €46, +5%) Q1 25: Weaker SR y/y, but better EBITDA...

Elisa has reported a slightly mixed set of results – SR has missed by -1.6%, but EBITDA is +0.9% ahead. LFL y/y EBITDA trends are better, but LFL y/y SR trends are slower, and that’s the rub: Elisa can’t seemingly grow EBITDA and SR at the same time, or more importantly EBITDA at faster rate than SR, but with good SR growth. Until that changes, or it beats expectations, it is unlikely to materially re-rate in our view, hence the Neutral rating.

Small Q1 EBITDA beat, churn down slightly q-o-q

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.00) - Looking for churn stabilisation

We forecast a fairly solid Q1 (results due at 07:30 CET on 17 April), with stabilised churn from the elevated levels in Q4. We expect a slight slowdown of YOY MSR growth versus Q4 and solid 10% organic growth for the international software business. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR47 (45).

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

More to give

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €49, +9%) Elisa CMD – continued good revenue grow...

Elisa held their CMD in London yesterday with new guidance to 2027. Elisa has lifted revenue and EBITDA CAGRs (to 4% from 2%). Although there clearly remains a lack of operational leverage, the new higher growth outlook is a touch better than consensus expectation.

Going for accelerated growth

IDS delivering, reassuring MSR guidance

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Uncertainties in Mobile market

Elisa reported about in line with consensus on revenue and EBITDA, but a high Mobile churn in Finland together with slower MSR growth YOY is causing concern. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to EUR45 (47).

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €50, +17%) Q4 24: Better SR y/y, but weaker EBITDA...

Elisa has reported a slightly mixed set of results - reported service revenue growth has reaccelerated and is now back in the MSD range (albeit +2.5% y/y from +0.5% y/y ex M&A), but ex M&A EBITDA growth has slowed to +2.2% y/y from +2.9% y/y, and EBITDA is c1% light vs consensus expectations.

Strong IDS, higher churn

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.00) - Still expect pressure on top line

We forecast muted revenue growth in Q4, in line with consensus. However, IDS should show solid organic growth. Guidance is likely to be cautious. We prefer Telia and Tele2 over Elisa, and reiterate our HOLD. We have lowered our target price to EUR47 (48).

Growth uncertainty as inflation tapers off

Top class, small premium

Expert speaker takeaways: ARPU and capex plans

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR48.00) - sedApta acquisition neutralised Q3

The Q3 report was on the weak side, in our opinion, with revenues 3% below consensus. We have trimmed our underlying estimates, which is offset by the acquired sedApta business. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR48 target price.