reports
- Steffen Evjen
Mixed risk for dividend cuts
Following the recent sharp oil price drop to ~USD70/bbl, we see increased investor concerns about the robustness of shareholder distributions. Historically, disappointments related to dividends and/or buybacks have triggered meaningful negative share-price reactions. For our large-cap NCS coverage, we believe oil prices would have to move below USD60/bbl for any negative surprises to unfold for Aker BP and Equinor, as both have strong balance sheets, enabling dividend flexibility. On the other h...
- Steffen Evjen
- Stephane Foucaud
Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Take-over offer at SEK58.70 per share
• Tethys has received a cash offer from Roc Oil to acquire the company at SEK58.70 per share. • The offer is recommended by the independent bid committee of the board of directors of Tethys. • Shareholders representing 16.86% of the outstanding shares have irrevocably undertaken to accept the offer. • The offer represents a premium of almost 90% to Tethys’ share price on the day prior to the announcement and has a 90% acceptance condition. • The acceptance period for the offer is expected to ...
- Stephane Foucaud
Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Anchois-3 disappoints. All eyes on South ...
• The North Flank prospect at Anchois-3 is water wet (ReNAV: £0.03/sh), This has a negative impact on Anchois South (ReNAV: £0.07/sh). • The B sands that were the main appraisal targets were thinner than expected and the deeper C & M sands were water wet, however these were drilled down-dip from the Anchois-2 well where the sands were found gas-bearing. The B sands will not be tested and the main hole will be plugged an abandoned. This has a negative impact on the size of the contingent resource...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published an update on DNO, seeing significant value potential from its Norwegian portfolio. As one of the most successful NCS exploration companies in recent years, the company has discovered net resources of ~135mmboe. In other news, we upgraded Aker BP to BUY (HOLD), viewing its recent underperformance as an attractive entry point. Also, a gas market update with Equinor left us slightly more bullish with regards to the near- and long-term gas market outlook.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY -136/09/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price £0.40 per share: Anchois-3 encounters gas in the appraisal targets but one of the exploration target is dry – The Anchois-3 well has 3 objectives. While the initial pilot hole encountered the targeted reservoirs at the Anchois Footwall prospect, they were interpreted as water wet. Our ReNAV for this prospect was £0.03/sh. The well was sidetracked in the B sands which are the main appraisal targets. Prel...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 11September 2024
11th September 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: Bivictrix Therapeutics (BVX.L) has delisted from AIM What’s baking in the oven? Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps If you would like to unsubscribe, please email with “unsubscribe me”. Hybridan Chefs Banquet Buffet***...
- Stephane Foucaud
Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Anchois-3 encounters gas in the appraisal...
• The Anchois-3 well has 3 objectives. While the initial pilot hole encountered the targeted reservoirs at the Anchois Footwall prospect, they were interpreted as water wet. Our ReNAV for this prospect was £0.03/sh. • The well was sidetracked in the B sands which are the main appraisal targets. Preliminary interpretation indicates the presence of gas in these sands. Our unrisked NAV for the 2C resources is £0.27/sh. We carry 75% probability of development. • Drilling is ongoing towards the deepe...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, the Aker BP-operated Tyrving field commenced production ahead of the planned start-up in October. In other news, Vår Energi completed the divestment in the Norne area to DNO; adjusting for cash flow between the effective transaction date on 1 January and close on 30 August, DNO paid a net cash consideration of ~USD24m. Also, BlueNord reported August preliminary production of 27.0kboed. Adjusting for the Harald fiel
- Steffen Evjen
- Brendan Long
Southern Energy (SOUC LN) - Disciplined for Growth
Based on the steeply strengthening futures curve for natural prices (see Summary sheet), we believe that Southern Energy’s period of capital discipline will evolve into a period of growth as rising natural gas prices encourage organic growth via drilling.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: only Czech PX index in positive te...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
BOCH BANK OF COMMERCE HOLDINGS
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
NLBR NLB GROUP
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
KSPI KASPI KZ
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
CTPNV CTP NV
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
GPP GRUPA PRACUJ DA
BCG BALTIC CLASSIFIEDS GROUP PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
SHO SHOPER SA
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 ELM CO
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
TRESTATES TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
NOVAL NOVAL PROPERTY
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte. The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations. The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut. The average oil production for the first 60 days of production was 2,37...
- Steffen Evjen
- Stephane Foucaud
New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Unconsequential delays to drilli...
• Commencement of drilling operating at the high impact Tariki field is likely to be delayed by two weeks. • This has no impact on our valuation. Our unrisked NAV for the Tariki-5 well is C$4.90 per share, including C$2.50 per share for the oil target and the balance for the low risk gas target (2P reserves). • In addition, this will will open the future gas storage business (unrisked NAV C$0.80 per share). • The current planning indicates well drilling operations may not commence at Tariki un...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KRU PW; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; EME Strategy FTSE GEIS;...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: expects PLN 603m of 1H24E net profit (flash estimate) NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (19-25 August) • EME Strategy: FTSE GEIS September 2024 Semi-Annual Review • OMV: announces gas discovery in the Norwegian Sea NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 2Q24E results preview – 19% yoy EBITDA decline expected (due on 28 August)
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we updated our oil and gas price assumptions. We see a softer oil market balance than before and have lowered our oil price assumptions. For gas, we have raised our assumptions based on increased geopolitical risks. Accordingly, we have updated our company estimates. Despite outperforming Equinor and Aker BP by ~25% YTD, we have kept Vår Energi as our top sector pick.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price £0.45 per share: Commencing drilling operations at high impact well in Morocco – Drilling operations have commenced on the Anchois East well (now named Anchois-3). The well has three objectives. An initial pilot hole will be drilled to evaluate the potential of the Anchois Footwall prospect, located in an undrilled fault block to the east of the main field with a 2U Prospective Resource estimate of 170 ...
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
AOI. AFRICA OIL
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
I3E I3 ENERGY
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
IAECN ITHACA ENERGY
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Martin Mauseth
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