reports
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- ABGSC IT Research
- Daniel Thorsson
- Simon Granath
- Ola Trovatn
Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Operational progress and strong 2025...
Q3 operating EBIT of EUR0.9m was in line with the pre-announced figure in the trading update. With a harvest volume of 3.4kt, the EBIT/kg margin was EUR0.27. The price achievement in Q3 was solid at 107% of the reference price, driven by good average harvest weight and strong superior share. The biological development and growth are stated to have remained steady. The 2024 volume guidance was edged up by 0.3kt to 10.4kt, while 2025 was strong at 15kt (+44 YOY). We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 tar...
- ABGSC IT Research
- Daniel Thorsson
- Simon Granath
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
I.A.R. Systems Group: 3 directors
A director at I.A.R. Systems Group bought 25,000 shares at 118.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...
- Joachim Gunell
Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK83.00) - Q3 reinforced our scalability thesis
Fortnox continues to execute well in a tough market, with adj. EPS of 34% and adj. FCF growth of 104% YOY, demonstrating the business model’s resilience and scalability. The deconsolidation of Offerta should trigger an organic sales growth acceleration in Q4e at higher margins, while encouraging KPIs for the business card and payments offering show incremental potential for 2025e. Since 2021, the stock has been roughly flat, as it has grown into its valuation multiples (~50% multiples contractio...
- ABGSC IT Research
- Daniel Thorsson
- Simon Granath
- ABGSC IT Research
- Daniel Thorsson
- Simon Granath
- Alexander Aukner
Lower prices and costs
We remain positive on the sector, as we still find the valuation supportive at 2025–2026e P/E’s of 13-11x, with SalMar and Mowi as our top picks. For our 2025–2026 sector forecasts, we have increased global supply by 30–40kt on 3–4% growth, noting high regulatory risk in some regions, but have reduced our spot prices by EUR0.2/kg to EUR7.7–7.9/kg. We have also reduced production costs by NOK1.5–3.5/kg on prevailing feed input prices, and cut our 2025e EPS by 7% but raised 2026e by 6%.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- ABGSC IT Research
- Daniel Thorsson
- Simon Granath
- Ola Trovatn
Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Supportive CMD targets
We expect Q3 operating EBIT of EUR1.4m (consensus EUR1.7m), which corresponds to an EBIT/kg margin of EUR0.42 (consensus EUR0.54) based on harvest volume of 3.3kt (consensus 3.2kt). For 2025 we expect the company to guide for 13.0kt (consensus 12.1kt). As part of Mowi’s CMD, it outlined its 25kt harvest target by 2029, in line with our DCF assumptions. We find the road map and guide to long-term trajectory supportive, and reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target price.
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- ABGSC IT Research
- Daniel Thorsson
- Simon Granath
- Joachim Gunell
Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK82.00) - Improving fundamentals in Q3e
Short interest is all-time-high after the recent FT scepticism and CEO announcing his departure. We would have preferred to see the CEO execute the next five-year plan, and believe this could keep some investors on the sidelines until a successor is found. We expect short-term uncertainty to decline due to 1) Q3 organic growth acceleration to 28% YOY; 2) we are 2% above Bloomberg consensus on seasonally important Q3e EBIT; and 3) we expect a step-change in FCF. We reiterate our BUY with a reduce...
- Alexander Aukner
Introduction to the salmon sector
This report provides an overview of the dynamics, companies, history, challenges and opportunities of the salmon farming industry. Biological challenges and stricter regulations over the past decade have curbed the supply of salmon, a globally consumed product with a strong ESG angle. Significant infrastructure investments made by the companies to solve these challenges have not yet yielded materially higher supply, leading to continued high salmon prices. Despite higher EBIT margins the sector ...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
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