Fortnox (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

This morning, EQT X and First Kraft (Olof Hallrup, Fortnox’s chairman of the board, who owns 18.9% of the shares) announced a take-private offer for Fortnox at SEK90/share or SEK58bn (38% premium to the last close, 13% premium to its recent highs in February). Fortnox’s board of directors recommends the bid, and the consortium said the deal is “best and final” (the consortium will not raise the price), corresponding to a 2025–2026e EV/EBIT of 47–35x and P/E of 61–46x on our numbers. The acceptan...

EQT + CoB bid to take FNOX private

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Increased supply

Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Positive inflection in organic growth

The best way to sum up Fortnox’s solid Q4 results was 25% organic sales growth at a 46% OpFCF margin despite a recessionary backdrop. We believe recent price increases and a heightened monetisation focus de-risks our above-consensus view for 2025e, while improved macroeconomic conditions would lend further usage tailwinds. As we expect to see EBIT growth accelerate to 35–40% YOY in the coming quarters from 30% YOY in 2024, the stock should re-rate, in our view, and we reiterate our BUY. We have ...

Best trigger behind us, valuation fair

Solid in most areas, slightly higher costs

Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Neutral Q4 report

Q4 operating EBIT of EUR2.1m was in line with the pre-announced number in the trading update, as was the harvest volume of 3.5kt and the EBIT/kg margin of EUR0.61. The biological trend and growth in Q4 evolved as expected, according to the company, and quarterly price achievement was strong at 109% of the reference price. The 2025 volume guidance of 15kt was unchanged and it was a positive that, according to management, it has secured sufficient smolt capacity to reach its 25kt harvest by 2029 t...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Foot off the gas

Improving farming KPIs and recovering demand have raised share prices over the past six months, but we now see a more neutral risk/reward. While we view the valuations as generally attractive, consensus EPS growth is 35–76% for 2025 and 9–28% for 2026 on moderately increasing salmon spot prices. We find the most valuation support in Lerøy Seafood’s ‘self-help’ story and Salmon Evolution as a re-rating case. We now take a more neutral sector stance.

10% price increases on Core products