Europe HY Trade Book - May 2025 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vallourec, Aggreko, TK Elevator, Aston Martin, Techem, Bite, Virgin Media O2, NewDay, Sunrise, Digi Communications, Telecom Italia, Banijay, Liberty Global, Solenis, Air France-KLM, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Forvia (formerly Faurecia), Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Premier Foods, The Very Group, Lecta, Air Baltic, Teva, Standard Profil

VMO2 merging with Daisy

VMO2 has announced it is merging its B2B activities with Daisy in the UK, with Daisy taking a 30% stake in the NewCo.

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global (LG) has released disappointing Q1/25 numbers, owing to weak subscriber dynamics. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA grew y-o-y. Cash-flow performance was mixed, with OCF rising while taxes paid and capex increased. Total debt was up, while the cash balance improved slightly. Management aims to reduce leverage, with asset sales ongoing at VodafoneZiggo. However, LG still plans to pay material dividends. Market conditions are set to remain very difficult, and the near-term outlook is...

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Playtech, Scan Global Logistics, Liberty Global, Clarios, TalkTalk, Modulaire, Klockner Pentaplast, EnQuest Plc, Tata Motors, Cirsa, Ineos, Motel One, Ineos Quattro

Liberty Global (Neutral) VMO2, VodafoneZiggo, Telenet (Underweight) Q...

The weaker broadband adds at VMO2 reported this morning were only half the story. With the full Liberty Global results, there has also been a material guidance reduction for VodafoneZiggo. We addressed the VMO2 numbers in more detailed in our earlier note here – and now in this note we do a more detailed dive into VodafoneZiggo and how leverage trends could develop over the next few years based on the new guidance and the potential tower sale.

VMO2 (Underweight) Q1 25: Higher broadband losses is an elevated conc...

VMO2’s Q1 broadband customer losses were materially worse than expected and we believe that this could cast doubts on their ability to deliver top-line growth for the year. LTM net debt/ EBITDAaL has now risen to 5.7x.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Neopharmed, PureGym, Rexel, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), David Lloyd Leisure, Odido, Liberty Global, Infopro Digital, Eircom, Tele Columbus, McLaren, Nexans, Fedrigoni, Stada, Grupo Antolin, Cerba, Klockner Pentaplast, Cheplapharm, Crown Holdings, Motel One, Stena AB, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.5, +110% ) / LCPR HY Deep dive on Puerto Ric...

We focus on Puerto Rico (PR). Following our call with the CFO we now see monthly EBITDA rising to $34m by y/e 2025 (and $40m by y/e 2026), driven by bad debt and credits normalizing, and revenue growth as net adds inflect.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Liberty Global, Ineos, Intrum, Recordati, Ineos Quattro, TUI, David Lloyd Leisure, Aston Martin, Lowell

Liberty Global to buy out VodafoneZiggo? Our Take.

It is being reported that Liberty Global is in talks with Vodafone about potentially buying out their 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo.

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q4 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global’s Q4/24 results were disappointing overall, with weak top-line and margin trends. Subscriber development was not as strong as we had forecast, though we note positively the improved outlook for the UK.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, The Very Group, Liberty Global, Tereos, Ontex, Recordati, TI Fluid Systems, THOM Europe, Borr Drilling, Klockner Pentaplast, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

VirginMedia-O2 Deeper-dive post-results: Path back to 5x leverage un...

After the Liberty Global results last night (see our take here), we now have the more detailed results from VMO2. With lower than expected FCF guidance, weak on-net subscriber trends, ongoing price competition across the market, cash out for spectrum and ongoing dividend upstreaming, we think the path back to 4-5x leverage could be a challenge. As a result, we remain Underweight on the bonds.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Odigeo, TGS ASA, Constellium, United Group, Liberty Global, Klockner Pentaplast, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Azelis, Recordati, Vedanta Resources

Liberty Global (Neutral, $16, +42%) Q4 24 - A tough FCF outlook for 20...

Liberty Global faces a challenging time ahead with the continual trade-off of financial engineering vs. underlying fundamentals – and we think the latter will always win in the end.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, Liberty Global, Ontex, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Merlin Entertainments, Borr Drilling, Neopharmed

Liberty Global - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics

In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Air Baltic, TAP, Liberty Global, United Group, Techem, THOM Europe, Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Softbank Group, Aggreko, Ineos, Premier Foods, Elior