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James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global (Neutral, $14, +14%) Post-Sunrise spin review: New tar...

The Sunrise spin has now been completed. In our Q3 results note, we set out our preliminary views on how Liberty post-Sunrise spin could look.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Liberty Global operating companies/3Q24 Earnings: UPCB, TNETBB, ZIGGO ...

The 3Q24 earnings reports of the four high yield telecom companies that are (partially) owned by Liberty Global[a] were mixed. 3Q24 adj. EBITDA performance was strong at VodafoneZiggo and Telenet, slightly better at Sunrise, and weak at Virgin Media O2. We currently prefer Sunrise and Ziggo. Given similar credit profiles, we expect limited spread dispersion across the four companies. However, we expect that Liberty Global will look different one year from now, after (partial) network sales.

Felix Fischer ... (+7)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SPIE, Teva, Digi Communications, Altice France (SFR), Telenet, Sunrise, Air France-KLM, Axactor, Victoria, Ineos, Stada, Oriflame, Casino Guichard-Perrachon, Boparan, Synthomer, NewDay

Haidje Rustau
  • Haidje Rustau

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global (LG) has reported its consolidated Q3/24 results and held an earnings call. The Q3 revenue figures were in line with our expectations, while EBITDA exceeded our forecasts. Top-line pressures continued, but cash-flow development was solid overall and liquidity remained very strong. We expect the group to continue using large share buybacks as a means to return cash to shareholders.

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Rexel, Nexans, Liberty Global, Sunrise, Aston Martin, Techem, Synlab, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Boparan, Borr Drilling, PureGym

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Liberty Global, SPIE, Nexans, Techem, McLaren, Axactor, CABB, Codere, Takko

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Techem, CEMEX, Liberty Global, Aston Martin, Playtech, Ineos Quattro, Boparan, OPmobility (formerly Plastic Omnium)

Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Liberty Global operating companies/2Q24 Earnings: UPCB, TNETBB, ZIGGO ...

The 2Q24 earnings reports of the four high yield telecom companies that are (partially) owned by Liberty Global were mixed. 2Q24 adj. EBITDA performance was strong at VodafoneZiggo, stable at Virgin Media O2 and Sunrise, while it was weak at Telenet. We would currently prefer to own Sunrise and Ziggo. Given similar credit profiles and the same (partial) owner, Liberty Global, we expect limited spread dispersion across the group. The main challenge to this view is our idea that we expect that Lib...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Liberty Global operating companies/1Q24 Earnings: UPCB, TNETBB, ZIGGO ...

The 1Q24 earnings reports of the four high yield telecom companies that are (partially) owned by Liberty Global were mixed. 1Q24 adj. EBITDA performance was strong at VodafoneZiggo and Sunrise, while it was soft at Telenet and Virgin Media O2. We prefer to own Sunrise and Ziggo, today. Given similar credit profiles and the same (partial) owner at the moment, Liberty Global, we expect limited spread dispersion across the group. The main challenge to this view is our idea that we expect that Liber...

Telenet Group Holding NV: Update following downgrade to B1

Our credit view of this issuer reflects a more promotional pricing environment ahead of Digi Communications N.V.'s launch.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Virgin Media O2, Telenet

Telecom: Virgin Media O2 rating lowered to B+, Telenet rating downgrade to B1

Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AMS AMS AG
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
MUV2 MUNICH REINSURANCE COMPANY
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
UCB UCB S.A.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AMS AMS AG
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
MUV2 MUNICH REINSURANCE COMPANY
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
UCB UCB S.A.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Germany: DTE, Freenet and 1&1 set to be the winners again in 20...

>Clients: Freenet inTV, Deutsche Telekom in broadband and 1&1 in mobile - In broadband, Deutsche Telekom added 66,000 clients in Q4 2023 vs Vodafone -94,000, O2D +23,000 and 1&1e -10,000 by our estimates. Deutsche Telekom continues its fibre roll-out (2-3 million new lines per year). Telefonica and 1&1 hope for better trends in the future but we see no visible signs. Freenet, which launched its offering in 2023, underlines the difficulty of building a brand on this ma...

Konrad Zomer ... (+2)
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Stephane Beyazian

ODDO : Allemagne : DTE, Freenet et 1&1 encore gagnants en 2024

>Clients : Freenet #1 (TV), Telekom #2 (internet) et 1&1 #3 (mobile) - Sur l’internet fixe, Deutsche Telekom a ajouté 66 000 clients au T4 2023 vs Vodafone -94 000, O2D +23 000, et 1&1e -10 000 selon nous. Telekom poursuit le déploiement de la fibre (2-3 M de lignes nouvelles par an). Telefonica et 1&1 espèrent de meilleures tendances à venir mais nous ne voyons pas de signe visible. Freenet, qui a lancé son offre en 2023, souligne la difficulté de construire une mar...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Liberty Global operating companies/4Q23 Earnings: UPC, TNET, ZIGGO and...

The 4Q23 earnings reports of the four high yield telecom companies that are (partially) owned by Liberty Global were mixed. 4Q23 adj. EBITDA performance was strong at Virgin Media O2 and UPC, while it was soft at Telenet and VodafoneZiggo. Nevertheless, we are surprised by the relatively low broadband customer losses at VodafoneZiggo, given the strong competition from FTTH. Another notable development is the weak guidance for FY24 from Telenet. Parent Liberty Global has also announced strategic ...

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Virgin Media O2: Deeper dive on the disappointing outlook Liberty Glo...

After the initial results out from Liberty Global last night, we get more detailed results this morning from VMO2, so we are able to further analyse the disappointing guidance given for VMO2 which implies a higher cost base than previously expected to support the current revenue trajectory. In this note, we dive deeper into the implications of this and what it means for Liberty Global and Telefonica.

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