EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
We are revisiting and transferring coverage of the Greek banks. We estimate their earnings to plateau, and their ROTEs to normalise in 2024-26E, as the market expects short-term Euribor rates to decline. Capital and liquidity gain importance as there is less easy money. The emphasis will be on optimising balance sheets, returning capital, and minimising funding costs relative to Euribor. We like National Bank of Greece (NBG; BUY) for its profitability, simplicity, and potential to return capital...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
A director at Eurobank Ergasias Services And Holdings sold 21,960 shares at 1.664EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 2Q23 - slight miss, some upside risk for our adjusted 2023E earnings • Tupras: 2Q23 results - reported EBITDA well above forecasts, CCS EBITDA not so special • Arabian Drilling: better than we Fracking expected POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: strong 2Q23 results, propelled by high trading volumes • Eurobank: 2Q23 highlights • Piraeus Bank: 2Q23 highlights • Siauliu Bankas: margin expansion provides for strong 2Q23 • Czech Republic macro: GDP d...
Profit momentum continuing unfettered in Q2’23… – Managements' concerns over rising deposit betas have proved excessive in hindsight as migration to term deposits seems to have remained limited in Q2 (2-3% q/q) with a low pass-through rate (70% ytd, partly propelled by earnings upgrades (12m fwd EPS +40% ytd) and partly by re-rating. With the sector still at 5.7x 2024e PE and 0.68x 2024e P/TBV, there is further upside in our view, especially as current prices still incorporate CoE in the mid-tee...
Profit momentum continuing unfettered in Q2’23… – Managements' concerns over rising deposit betas have proved excessive in hindsight as migration to term deposits seems to have remained limited in Q2 (2-3% q/q) with a low pass-through rate (70% ytd, partly propelled by earnings upgrades (12m fwd EPS +40% ytd) and partly by re-rating. With the sector still at 5.7x 2024e PE and 0.68x 2024e P/TBV, there is further upside in our view, especially as current prices still incorporate CoE in the mid-tee...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 1Q23 beats expectations materially, strong net cash position, sound trading update POSITIVE • Eurobank: 1Q23 results solid - upside risk to our FY23E forecasts POSITIVE • PKO BP: posts solid but neutral 1Q23 results, FX mortgage charges high, ROE at 15%+ NEUTRAL • STS Group: 1Q23 EBITDA up 12% yoy, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual reported 1Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminary figures NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: to buy back its own shares...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: a candid discussion on inflation • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q22 and shares positive 2023E guidance on underlying earnings • Kruk: solid 2022, in line with prelims POSITIVE • OTP Bank: solid 4Q22 results and upbeat 2023E guidance, but pending potential impact of adjustment POSITIVE • Eurobank: 4Q22 results, and heading for 13% ROTE in 2023E POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: takeaways from the Enel deal call NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea, Electrica: read-across fr...
Eurobank has posted a solid quarter, with even stronger guidance for 2023E and targets for 2025E. Management is targeting a ROTE of 12-13%, payout ratios of >25%, substantial capital generation (>200bps by 2025E) and healthy EPS growth (12% per annum). We remain BUYers of Eurobank. The stock trades at a reasonable P/E of 6.5x and a P/TBV of 0.8x on 2023E, with upside risk on the 13% ROTE forecast. The P/E and P/TBV on the 2025E (conservative) guidance stand at 5.5x and 0.6x, respectively.
HEADLINES: • Georgia macro: Georgian Dream withdraws legislation on "foreign agents" • Poland macro: NBP remains on hold • Romania macro: gently does it • Jumbo: strong February sales momentum and 2023E guidance • Asseco Poland: 4Q22 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 126m, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV: creates geothermal joint venture with Wien Energie • Hellenic Bank: issues EUR 200m Tier 2 subordinated notes • Public Power Corporation: signs deal to acquire Enel's Romanian a...
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