EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Kruk: detailed 4Q24 results, revealing headwinds in Spain NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: small miss on 4Q24 results, but promises strong ROTE outlook for 2025E and adds another round of share buyback potential NEUTRAL • Richter: soft 4Q24 operating results NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected NEGATIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: earnings a small beat, bottom line boosted by negative goodwill and low tax rate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q24 pre...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: strong momentum (stays BUY) • Aselsan: strong 4Q24 results and upbeat FY25E outlook POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 4Q24E results review – EBITDA +17% yoy, in line with the consensus; solid 2025E guidance and dividend recommendation POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: prepares for separation of its passive mobile POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H24 – strong performance continues • Lion Finance Group PLC: 4Q24 results highlights POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q24 prelims in line with the January guidance...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 February) • Eurocash: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA flat yoy, but 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • PGE: PLN 2.4bn write-down in conventional generation to be recognised in the FY24 results NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: Fairfax shareholding drops to 32.9% NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 4Q24E preview – 16% yoy growth in EBITDA expected (due on 25 February) • Auto Partner: 4Q24E preview – EBITDA almost flat yoy (due on 15 April) • Inter Cars: 4Q...
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: who are you calling a refiner? (stays BUY) • Enea: signs an annex to its coal supply agreement with Bogdanka NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: Fairfax sells a 2.2% stake through an ABB NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao: 4Q24E preview (due on 27 February) • Short News (OPL)
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: government imposes cap on money transfer fees, and new taxes related to real estate and school rebuilding NEGATIVE • Tauron: results of the 2029 capacity market auction NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (9-15 December) • Short News (MBR)
Three Directors at Eurobank Ergasias Services And Holdings sold 80,000 shares at between 2.245EUR and 2.247EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the compa...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • Kalekim: compelling growth story yet to be priced in (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one – the Year Ahead issue, part 2 • Athens Exchange Group: solid delivery in 3Q24, small beat vs. our expectations POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 3Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • GTC: 3Q24 – recurring broadly in line, risk-on after German acquisition NEUTRAL • Romania macro: implications of the presidential elect...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: solid 3Q24 results, in line with our forecasts; future share price performance depends on growth guidance and/or capital distribution NEUTRAL • CCC: historically-best quarterly EBITDA 9% above our expectations, due to opex control POSITIVE • Dino Polska: 4-8% EBITDA beats in 3Q24, EBITDA back on the rise POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q24 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • MOL: 3Q24 results – EBITDA in line with our and the consensus estimates NEUTRAL • Wizz...
HEADLINES: • Ilirija d.d.: ADRs growth pace cools, cost inflation persists (NOT RATED) • Migros: good set of operating results in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Kalekim: strong bottom-line performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: 3Q24 results – quarterly margin improvement tempered by lower export guidance NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q24 results – net income beats the consensus; comment on the fire at the Izmit refinery NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – strong cargo and investments offset steep growth in staff cost...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: slower growth on the horizon (stays HOLD) • Wizz Air: 1Q FY25 – a miss, and FY guidance reviewed down NEGATIVE • mBank: posts solid 2Q24 results; evolution of the CHF mortgage saga a key catalyst NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24 results – slight miss • BRD-GSG: small miss on 2Q24 bottom line, but good dynamics in loan book development NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q24 highlights – in line in 2Q24, but trends indicate upside for full-year NI estimate • Euroba...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: 2Q24 – big beat on headline profit, underlying results largely in line NEUTRAL • Budimex: preliminary 2Q24 EBIT in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 2Q24 traffic; summertime sadness • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 July) • Text: secures new (fifth) patent in the US POSITIVE • Arcelik: change of CFO NEUTRAL • Greek banks: 2Q24E previews (reporting season starts on 31 July) POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24E preview – flat adjusted EBITD...
The Greek banks’ earnings season will kick off on 31 July, with Piraeus Financial Holdings and Eurobank Ergasias Services’ results, followed by National Bank of Greece on 1 August and Alpha Services and Holdings on 2 August. On the adjusted / before one-offs net income level, for the sector as a whole, we expect an 11% qoq contraction and 6% yoy growth. We believe that trading income is likely to be a significant factor behind the qoq decline in earnings. We do not expect radical qoq changes in ...
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • NLB Group: a tale of growth and expansion (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Greek banks: SSM greenlights banks' dividend distributions POSITIVE • Poland macro: NBP extends the pause • Piraeus Financial Holdings: revises 2024E guidance up POSITIVE • Auto Partner: May sales up by a limited 7% yoy NEGATIVE • Global airlines: French ATC strikes prompt Ryanair to call on EU to take action to protect freedom of movement NEGATIVE • mBank: announces path for succession in Management Board NEUT...
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: inflation approaches the long-awaited peak • Eurobank Ergasias Services: increases its stake in Hellenic Bank POSITIVE • Richter: stock jumps on prospect of Vraylar paediatric extension NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus – resilient, amidst higher global uncertainty • Duna House: 1Q24 – firing on all cylinders POSITIVE • Greece macro: May brought good news, but not enough yet • Huuuge Games: May bookings estimate up 9% mom, but flat mom for both flagship games NEU...
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