February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
Although growth is slowing, cash flow trends continue to improve on greater discipline on opex and capex. The industry is increasingly giving this back in the form of higher dividends or buybacks which KT has already instituted and LG guided buybacks of up to 20% of net profits .
KT reported a decent set of underlying results if excluding the one-off costs related to its early retirement programme which was well flagged earlier. Service revenue also recovered back to growth as Enterprise accelerated even despite the ongoing restructuring of less profitable business
SKT reported softer numbers against consensus, while its net profit benefited from a one-off equity valuation gain. Across its segments, SK Broadband delivered better trends, but mobile service revenue was soft, and EBITDA was impacted by a jump in labour costs. We expect costs to ease and margins to improve as SKT undergoes cost efficiencies and strips out less profitable businesses. Dividend payout was in-line with expectations if excluding the one-offs.
A director at SK Telecom Co Ltd bought 1,000 shares at 54,700.000KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
2024 contained a few surprises for the telcos, with the year starting with “Value-up” and ending with political chaos. Value-up is likely to have the longer lasting effects we think, and as most exposed and with the best strategy, and despite rising 33% in 2024, KT remains our top pick.
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
KT saw weaker service revenue but better headline EBIT and bottom-line growth from a lower base last year. Mobile kept steady and core B2B inflected to growth despite restructuring efforts, service revenue trend was impacted again by weakness in Content and BC Card.
SK Telecom saw revenue accelerate again on the back of B2B Enterprise demand. Mobile also kept steady as the environment stayed benign. Notably, capex spend remains disciplined while operating profit was up 7.1% YoY off lower depreciation and continued cost control. The recently announced Corporate Value Up plan was largely expected.
Following SK Telecom’s plan to improve corporate value, KT has highlighted three priorities to further its corporate value yesterday. Building up to its 9-10% return on equity target by 2028, it aims to build up its AICT contribution and improve EBIT margin to 9%, optimise latent value from non-core assets and has also guided for an additional KRW 1tn (US$ 0.72bn) in buybacks/cancellations, in excess of its current 50% shareholder remuneration policy. Our thoughts below.
Group service revenue and EBITDA trends were softer in Q2, beset by slower Enterprise growth and a one-off labour cost hike by KT. By contrast, mobile improved to 2.1% YoY, led by SKT and KT. Given the benign mobile landscape and the removal of Stage X’s mobile license, we expect trends to sustain at current levels. Capex spend is under control while quarterly dividends were unchanged. Separately, we have trimmed our target prices for SKT and LG Uplus; KT remains our preferred pick.
Q2 was impacted by a decline in its service revenue and a one-off cost related to an early settlement of wage negotiations (KRW 64bn impact). As a result, the stock was down 2% today. However, some of the bright spots remained – sustained growth in Wireless, profitable Enterprise segments, KT Cloud and continued capex moderation.
SK Telecom saw an acceleration in topline while underlying EBITDA came in 2% ahead. Encouragingly, mobile trends improved on better mix and rise in roaming users while Enterprise, a key focus area, expanded its contribution to near 10% of overall revenue. Focus on AI continues to hold back shareholder remuneration however we think.
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