reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Back to Black: NSR GEM Top-10 November ‘25 ...
Our portfolio of Top Picks was higher again in October, and now up 69% ytd. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos When does Digital drive a re-rating? Upgrade VEON, V...
We analyze how much revenue EM Telcos are generating from digital businesses, and therefore at what point they are likely to make the transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital first”. We use this to predict when the market is likely to re-rate those exposed, and as a result make multiple upgrades across our GEM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
SK Telecom (Buy, KRW 78,000, +48%) Q3 25 Quick Take: Dividend cut
Numbers were in-line with expectations, but shares fell slightly today due to the absence of dividends this quarter, implying a dividend cut for the year. Nevertheless, with the overhang on the data breach fine removed and recovery now in progress, we think SKT’s valuation is compelling for investors who can look past this year. We therefore stay Buyers with a KRW 78k price target.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers First down month, AMX into the Top-10 for T...
After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Continuing strong: NSR GEM Top-10 September...
August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q2 25 review: KT and LG U-Plus benefiting from SK...
SKT underperformed in Q2 due to April’s cyberattack. As SKT’s Customer Appreciation Package is expected to cost KRW500bn (US$360m) coupled with the associated churn, SKT is expected to take a heavier hit in the second half. The government’s AI campaign should be supportive for telcos’ Enterprise operations, and we expect to see stronger Enterprise revenues in H2 too. KT remains one of our Top Picks in GEM Telcos for its exposure to Enterprise and focus on cost and capex discipline.
SK Telecom Co Ltd: 1 director
A director at SK Telecom Co Ltd sold 1,576 shares at 55,800.000KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
- Chris Hoare
KT Corp (Buy, KRW 105,000, +94%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Service revenue in...
Profitability rose sharply on lower labour costs and was partly boosted by a real estate gain, well-flagged previously. Despite ongoing restructuring to shed lower-margin businesses, service revenue trend inflected, driven by B2B and Fixed Line. As expected, operational metrics accelerated in Q2 due to the situation at SKT.
- Chris Hoare
LG Uplus (Buy, KRW 19,000, +31%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Good acceleration
LG Uplus printed better numbers in Q2 as service revenue and earnings growth accelerated, putting it closer to its 6%-6.5% profit margin target by 2027. Importantly, capex spend continues to moderate which is supportive for cash flow and therefore shareholder remuneration. The company had instituted a KRW 80bn (USD50m) buyback back in July, ahead of our forecasts and translates to 5.7% shareholder remuneration yield on our estimates.
- Chris Hoare
SK Telecom (Neutral, KRW 78,000, +39%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Heavier hit ...
Results were weak as expected because of the churn from April data breach. However, the worst is yet to come since Q3 will be impacted by the 50% discount on monthly tariff that will be applied in August. There is still no news on the fine which creates an overhang although news outlet suggests it could be disclosed as early as this month. For now, we maintain our Neutral stance.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another monster month: NSR GEM Top-10 Augus...
Our top picks performed very strongly again in July, marked by a strong recovery from VEON, Millicom and IHS Towers alongside continued momentum at Singtel and Airtel Africa. Heading into earnings season, we continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
SK Telecom (Neutral, KRW 78,000, +43%) Overall impact of data breach ...
It is now clear that as we thought, the market’s initial response to SKT’s data breach was too sanguine, as earlier today, South Korea's regulator ordered SKT to waive the termination fees following April's cyberattack, and thereafter, SKT agreed to the waiver and announced a Customer Appreciation package and therefore cut 2025 revenue guidance, and said that it now expects EBIT to decline this year too. In this note, we summarise our thoughts and assess the potential financial impact.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another decent month: NSR GEM Top-10 July ‘...
Our picks largely had a slightly slower month in June, with VEON seeing sharp profit taking, but a recovery in some of the weaker stocks such as LILAK offset to continue to see overall valuations rise. We continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain heavily undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q1 25 review: Peers expected to benefit near-term...
Margins are improving as operators execute on cost discipline and shift away from less profitable operations. As capex intensity falls, cash flow is rising and so therefore are dividends or buybacks; LG is expected to announce a buyback in 2H. Thus we are confident of further re-rating and our recent trip reinforced this view. Following the data breach at SKT, near term results are likely to favour KT and LG Uplus. KT remains our preferred pick and is one of our top picks in GEM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets
With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
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