Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK370.00) - Profitable growth set to continue

Helped by benign claims and a strong investment result, we expect Protector to report Q1 PTP of NOK753m, up 31% YOY. We see Q1e GWP ~17% higher YOY in local FX, driven by strong renewals and the French expansion, while we continue to forecast solid UK growth in connection with the upcoming 1 April renewals. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK370 (365).

Resurs Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Resurs Holding AB bought 146,251 shares at 23.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

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Weak Q4 but a "non-event" for the share

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK365.00) - Strong underwriting momentum

Although Q4 earnings were weighed down by soft investments, the underwriting result increased by 39% YOY, helped by continued high premium growth and a strong combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio improved by 0.5%-points YOY, which, in combination with 19% YOY GWP growth as of 1 January 2025, bodes well for the investment case, in our view. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK365 target price.

Market hit it hard for financials

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued repricing momentum

Underwriting continued to improve, helped by recent repricing efforts to mitigate inflation, although a soft investment result led to earnings pressure in Q4. With Private segment premium growth of 6.8% YOY in local currencies, supported by continued momentum from Norwegian motor price hikes, we see Tryg as on track to meet its 2027 combined ratio target of ~81%. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

Miss Q4 due to financials, reiterate 2027 guidance

PTP -8-10% from softer financials anb just soft UW and premiums;Reiterate 2027 guidance, 2025 premium growth from private/SMEs; Stock -1-2% today, cons.est.rev. minor; softer read-x into GJF

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK365.00) - Strong start to 2025

In our view, the solid Q4 GWP and 1 January volume update bode well for premium growth in 2025. Protector saw 1 January GWP growth of 19% YOY, in local currencies, helped by its recent entry into the French market. On the strong growth, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–5%, and our target price to NOK365 (350), while we reiterate our BUY.

Crude Quarterly Q4'24: oil market stabilising

Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

Good underwriting hit by financials

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK350.00) - Set for strong 2025e momentum

Helped by continued repricing efforts across the Nordics, we expect Protector to report a solid Q4 underwriting result of NOK326m, with a seasonally strong combined ratio of 89.1%. Given the growth focus of Protector, and the seasonally low volumes in Q4, we await the important 1 January renewal date, forecasting ~14% local currency growth YOY, including France. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK350 target price.

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Underwriting excellence in focus

Underwriting and capital efficiency remained in focus at Tryg’s 2024 CMD in London. The company lowered its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% and has launched a DKK2bn share buyback programme, following a series of de-risking activities. Despite the strong outlook for continued shareholder distributions, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% on somewhat lower financial result than expected. We reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

CMD - plan towards 2027

2027 underwriting result target of DKK 8-8.4bn; DKK 15-16bn normal divi added by SBB of DKK 2bn for '24-'27; Stock likely up 0-2% today driven by share buyback

Heads-up for CMD 4 December