Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

Good underwriting hit by financials

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK350.00) - Set for strong 2025e momentum

Helped by continued repricing efforts across the Nordics, we expect Protector to report a solid Q4 underwriting result of NOK326m, with a seasonally strong combined ratio of 89.1%. Given the growth focus of Protector, and the seasonally low volumes in Q4, we await the important 1 January renewal date, forecasting ~14% local currency growth YOY, including France. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK350 target price.

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Underwriting excellence in focus

Underwriting and capital efficiency remained in focus at Tryg’s 2024 CMD in London. The company lowered its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% and has launched a DKK2bn share buyback programme, following a series of de-risking activities. Despite the strong outlook for continued shareholder distributions, we have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% on somewhat lower financial result than expected. We reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

CMD - plan towards 2027

2027 underwriting result target of DKK 8-8.4bn; DKK 15-16bn normal divi added by SBB of DKK 2bn for '24-'27; Stock likely up 0-2% today driven by share buyback

Heads-up for CMD 4 December

Resurs Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Resurs Holding AB bought 164,785 shares at 23.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Building on a solid foundation

We expect focus at the CMD set for 4 December to be on how best to utilise the scale achieved after the RSA transaction. Building on newfound scale in Sweden, together with profitability measures in Norway, we see continued underwriting improvements. In sum, we expect Tryg to update its key financial targets for 2027, with a combined ratio of ≤80% and an insurance service result of DKK8.2bn–8.6bn. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK185 (180), having increased our 2025–20...

Weak performance overshadowed by bid

Q3 a "non-event" given the bid

Like clockwork, now time to look to 2027

Q3: Underlying claims in line, 3% UW beat (weather & large losses); Adj. EPS +1% for both 24e (inv.return) and 26e (premiums); Unwarranted P/E discount 24e-25e, BUY into CMD

Reported UW beat, underlying in line

PTP +3% vs both cons & ABG, driven by 3% better UW; Reported growth inline, '24 guidance repeated ahead of CMD; Stock +0-2% today, cons.est.rev. +0-2%; pos. read to peer GJF

Winter is coming

Streamer vessel demand remains muted (2024e tracks ~10% below pandemic levels). We believe a potential recovery in the TGS equity case rests on supply-side discipline remaining intact despite what appears to be a challenging winter season utilisation-wise along with key peer Shearwater’s cash flow-supportive agreement with Viridien expiring in January.

Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Continuing on the path towards a CR <80%

Q3: expect continued 30bp improvement, neutral risk/reward. UW -1-2% on lower discounting; '24e adj. EPS +2% (financials). Trading at 5-12% warranted cap. adj. P/E premium to peers: BUY.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Set for sequential CR improvement

We expect favourable weather conditions to support solid underwriting in Q3 (results due at 18:00 CET on 23 October), with PTP boosted further by a strong result from the bond portfolio. Despite it being a low-volume quarter, we forecast premiums to increase 13% YOY on repricing, UK volumes and FX. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e and reiterate our BUY and NOK270 target price.

Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.