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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Walmart 3Q24/25 results. IBA: Rhodotron contract to equip a sterilization facility in Mexico. NEPI Rockcastle: Sound operational momentum. UCB: Final approval for Bimzelx in the United States

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: FDA gives 5/5 with Bimzelx' new approval in HS

UCB has received a 5th nod for Bimzelx as hidradenitis suppurativa joins the fray of approved indications. We see an important role for Bimzelx in this emerging disease space with clear potential to become standard of care over time given its clear outperformance over Novartis' Cosentyx in the clinic. We reiterate our € 173 TP and Accumulate rating.

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: First takes on dapimap's Ph3 results in SLE

UCB shared first insights into the Phase 3 data on dapimap in SLE, which appear generally favourable with a 14.6% BICLA benefit after 48 weeks vs. SoC. The data also shows a steroid tapering effect and reduction in flares, while suggesting possible outperformance vs. current market leader Benlysta (GSK). Dapimap is co-developed with Biogen and will be continued in a second Ph3 study. We reiterate our € 173 TP and Accumulate rating.

Guy Sips ... (+4)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Reg Watson ... (+2)
  • Reg Watson
  • CFA

dsm-firmenich/Take your vitamins/BUY

dsm-firmenich expects to separate its Animal Nutrition and Health (ANH) business in 2025 which will complete the company's transformation into a flavours and fragrances business to rival Givaudan and Symrise. We model the impact of this on valuation and forecast the expected short-term boost from vitamin pricing. The outcome is that our adj. EBITDA forecasts for 2024-25F rise by c.10% each year but our valuation declines slightly to €146 per share, based on the disposal of ANH. We maintain our B...

David Vagman ... (+3)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Maxime Stranart

UCB/The gift that keeps on giving/BUY

We reiterate our BUY rating on UCB and increase our target price from €180 to €212. After almost a year on the ING Benelux Favourites List, we believe it is an opportune time to remove UCB as we view our upside as more risky than in the past as it is increasingly weighted towards UCB's development pipeline. Nonetheless, we remain confident in UCB's equity story, driven by INGF €6bn peak sales for Bimzelx, a continued strong performance of secondary growth engines Evenity and Rystiggo, as well as...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adecco: 3Q24 miss; stabilising trends in 3Q24 and into 4Q24; accelerating cost savings. B&S Group: 3Q24 preview - liquor bottoming into 4Q24? Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Almost the real thing. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 5.5%, VW down 11%. Kinepolis: Oct US/Canada box office at 59% of pre Covid level, France recovery to 78%. Recticel: 3Q24 compares well with Kingspan. Renewi: 1H25 preview - battling cost inflation with self help. Syensqo: Slight beat on 3Q...

Jacob Mekhael ... (+3)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Jacob Mekhael
  • Jacob Mekhael

UCB Bepranemab shows mixed results in Alzheimer's phase 2a

UCB presented results from the phase 2a (TOGETHER) study of bepranemab (antibody targeting the mid-region of tau) in people living with prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) during a late-breaker at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) conference. The results showed a miss on the primary endpoint, but some signal on secondary endpoints and in sub-group analysis. With the candidate back with UCB from Genentech, the company is evaluating next steps in the development program. We...

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

DSM-Firmenich Conference call feedback

Below are the highlights from the 3Q results conference call. 3Q adjusted EBITDA jumped 32% and beat our and consensus by respectively 3% and 1%. Dsm-firmenich increased FY24 adj EBITDA guidance from c € 2bn to towards € 2.1bn, citing disruption in the vitamin market. We remind that the recently announced mid term financial targets for the new scope (ie ex ANH) are similar to the targets of the current group, ie 5-7% organic sales growth and an 22-23% adjusted EBITDA margin, which represent a si...

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

DSM-Firmenich FIRST LOOK: 3Q adj.EBITDA +32%, FY guidance up to ‘towar...

3Q adjusted EBITDA jumped 32% and beat our and consensus by respectively 3% and 1%. Dsm-firmenich increased FY24 adj EBITDA guidance from c € 2bn to towards € 2.1bn, citing disruption in the vitamin market. We remind that the recently announced mid term financial targets for the new scope (ie ex ANH) are similar to the targets of the current group, ie 5-7% organic sales growth and an 22-23% adjusted EBITDA margin, which represent a sizeable step-up to the FY23 margin level of c. 18% (ex ANH). We...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...

Stefano Toffano
  • Stefano Toffano

DSM-Firmenich : Further signs of broad end-market normalisation

>Continued demand recovery - dsm-firmenich’s Q3 24 results once again confirmed the improving business momentum. The company posted another sequential good quarter on the back of a.o. easing comps, improving demand and the continued realisation of self-help benefits. While the strong positive impact on vitamin prices is temporary and will take some time to fully feed through, the higher vitamin pricing environment (a.o.) pushed ANH profitability higher, albeit from a ...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste

Morning Notes : ABI BB, ARCAD NA, ARGX BB, DIE BB, DSFIR NA, FLOW NA, ...

: ABI BB, ARCAD NA, ARGX BB, DIE BB, DSFIR NA, FLOW NA, GLPG NA, INGA NA, RECT BB

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Ontex Share price reaction overdone -Model update

Ontex' share price retreated significantly upon the release of 3Q results, which showed weaker than expected like-for-like top line growth (+1.7% vs +4% consensus) and a reduction of the FY24 like-for-like revenue growth guidance from 4-5% to 2-3%. The issue appears to be of a temporary nature being that Ontex was a bit too bullish previously on the ramp up pace of the new US contracts which were held back by various technical reasons. Whilst the guidance reduction appears a bit strange (coming ...

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