reports
- Jin Yoon
GOTO 4Q24 Results: Profitability to Further Improve in FY25
What’s New: GoTo guided adjusted EBITDA in the range of IDR1.4trn to IDR1.6trn in FY25 partly driven by margin improvement in both ODS and FinTech. ODS GTV could grow low-to-mid teens YoY, while FinTech consumer lending loans outstanding could reach IDR8trn in 2025. We up our PT from IDR70 to IDR80 on improved outlook. Our updated PT of IDR80 implies a 4.1x FY25E EV/Revs (net). We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Trade War Begins
Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. Imports of oil from Canada into the US are subject to a 10% tariff, in addition to an extra 10% tariff on imports from the US, Canada retaliated by imposing a 25% tariff on imports from the US, including beverages, cosmetics and paper products worth US$20b. Mexico and China are also expected to retaliate. The biggest risk is the potential underperformance of the JCI. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO,...
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Strategy: Trade War Begins: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO, CTRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ): Technical BUY Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - 2024 JCI Return Analysis
The JCI delivered a 3.7% decline in 2024, underperforming the MSASJ after two previous years of outperformance. IDXENER was the top performing sector in the JCI with a 31.9% return. IDXFIN dropped 6.2% in 2024 with big banks delivering negative returns. Gains of over 100% have been observed in MLPT, SRAJ, JSPT, PTRO, PANI, CLEO and BRMS. The worst performers are SMGR, UNVR, MDKA, GGRM, TOWR, TLKM and HMSP. For 2025, our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 6, 2025
Strategy: 2024 JCI Return Analysis: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference
The key takeaways from our regional KL conference are: a) most investors agree that Prabowo’s programmes are positive for Indonesia; b) investors are concerned about the widening budget deficit; c) foreign investors are pleased that local fund managers are buying; d) there is interest in syariah banks, particularly BRIS; and e) investors are inquiring about ACES vs Mr DIY Indonesia. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Strategy: Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 29, 2024
Strategy: Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Benyamin Mikael
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an en...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Stevanus Juanda
Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: Rp1t In On-demand Se...
GOTO guides for its ODS adjusted EBITDA margin to expand 25bp qoq to 1.2% in 2025, or Rp1t. Loan book could grow 20% qoq to Rp5t-5.5t in Dec 24 and increase further to Rp8.6t by Dec 25. 2025 adjusted fintech EBITDA could reach Rp200b by 2025. The losses from its e-commerce segment remain unpredictable as TikTok has spent Rp10t on Tokopedia in the past six months. Thus, GOTO could still record a net loss in 2025. With improvements in GOTO’s operations, we maintain BUY with a target price of Rp85.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 18, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mainly stable except for weakness in real estate. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$130.00) 2QFY25: Seeking high quality growth and gradual monetisation. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/HOLD/HK$5.13/Target: HK$5.50) 9M24: Disappointing results; targets positive revenue growth in 2025. JD Logistics, Inc (2618 HK/BUY/HK$14.16/Target: HK$22...
ADCB ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
BANPU TB BANPU
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
OXMU PRIME US REIT
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes: Friday, November 08, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...
BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
7160 PENTAMASTER CORP. BHD
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
INCO VALE INDONESIA
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
LPN LPN DEVELOPMENT PCL
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
ADROIJ ADARO ENERGY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Trump Wins: What Is The Potential Impact On Indonesia?
We expect the impact on Indo-US export flows to be manageable as a 10-20% tariff is unlikely to compensate for the US’ high labour cost. The risk may come from Indo-China trade as a sizeable amount of exports to China are commodities. We focus on sectors likely to benefit from domestic policies − banks, auto, property, technology and consumer − while reducing positions in commodities. Our BUYS: BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, CMRY, ACES, GOTO and ASII. Trim: ADRO, ITMG and INCO.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
INCO VALE INDONESIA
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ADRO ADARO ENERGY INDONESIA TBK PT
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 8, 2024
Strategy: Trump Wins: What Is The Potential Impact On Indonesia? Positives: Banking − BBNI, BBRI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; consumer − CMRY; retail − ACES; technology − GOTO. Negatives: ADRO, ITMG, INCO. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
INCO VALE INDONESIA
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ADROIJ ADARO ENERGY
- Stevanus Juanda
GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - 3Q24: Strong Performance Overall But ...
GOTO recorded a net loss of Rp1,614b in 3Q24, up 32.4% yoy but down 12.2% qoq from a Rp2,387b loss in 3Q23. GOTO’s on-demand service recorded the third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. It will use its mass market products as a customer acquisition tool and generate higher profits via upselling and cross selling. Fintech profitability guidance is now expected by 4Q24, vs 4Q25 in the previous guidance. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp86.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Colin Lee
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 05, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 BAIDU INC
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,170/Target: Rp1,440): 3Q24: Weak profit; in line with consensus estimate. Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ/HOLD/Rp120/Target: Rp120): 3Q24: Restructuring looms as BUKA exits some businesses. Downgrade to HOLD. GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp66/Target: Rp86): 3Q24: Strong performance overall but below consensus expectation. TRADERS’ CORNER Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY Astra International (ASII IJ): Technical BUY
- Jin Yoon
GOTO 3Q24 Results: Business to Sequential Improve in 4Q
What’s New: GoTo reiterated its adjusted EBITDA breakeven guidance as the group could potentially reinvest any profit back to the business. ODS and FinTech growth could also trend better in 4Q compared to 3Q partly due to seasonality despite near-term macro headwinds. We up our PT from IDR55 IDR70 on improved outlook. Our updated PT of IDR70 implies a 3.61x FY25E EV/Revs (net). We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
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