Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
Company Results | GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp60/Target: Rp78) GOTO’s 3Q25 results showed a continued improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Its key catalyst has shifted from M&A speculation to profitability. Fintech remains the core growth engine, while the on-demand services segment has shown an improvement in profitability. We maintain BUY with a Rp78 target price, rolling our valuation to 2026 with a lower 3.7x price-to-sales multiple. Highlights • GOTO reported another improvement in adju...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Another Outperformance In October In Oct 25, our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 11.1%. All of our stock picks saw positive gains, with ASSA seeing the most at +26.8%. Events to look out are the MSCI rebalancing announcement on 5 November, and BI’s rate decision on 19 Nov 25. We maintain exposure to gold and US dollar earners, and add JPFA for its solid 2H25 growth. Our Alpha Picks: AADI, ASSA, ADRO, ARCI ENRG, JPFA and MDKA. Company Results | GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (G...
What’s New: GoTo revised up its adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of IDR1.8trn to IDR1.9trn in FY25 amid stronger-than-expected margins in both ODS and fintech. FinTech could remain resilient and ODS GTV growth could bottom out in 3Q25 as segment could start to re-accelerate in 4Q25 and into FY26. We maintain our PT at IDR70. Analysts: Jin Yoon
What’s New: GoTo reiterated its adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of IDR1.4trn to IDR1.6trn in FY25. While fintech could remain resilient, ODS GTV could decelerate in 2H partly due to challenging macro and intense competition on the mobility side. We lower our PT from IDR80 to IDR70 partly due to near-term slowdown in ODS. Our updated PT of IDR70 implies 3.1x FY26E EV/Revs (net). We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
We expect some competition in the ODS segment in 2Q25 although this should be offset by the continuous strong growth in the fintech segment. With M&A sentiment easing, we believe that further growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2H25 will serve as a catalyst to monitor (more colors during the 2Q25 analyst meeting). We maintain BUY on GOTO with a lower target price of Rp78. We use the SOTP method, applying EV/Sales multiples to each segment (ODS, fin-tech, e-commerce) — at levels similar to regional peer...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Market Strategy: 2H25: A big beautiful deal? INDONESIA Update GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp59/Target: Rp78): EBITDA resilience back in focus as M&A noise fades. MALAYSIA Sector REITs: We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the positives appear largely priced into current share prices, with limited near-term upside potential. Top picks: PREIT and CLMT. SINGAPORE Update CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP/BUY/S$2.15/Target: S$2.42): Organic growth from AEIs and t...
INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25 Remove ICBP, EXCL, and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Sector Property Amid tariff overhang concerns, we favour companies with clear earnings visibility, solid exposure to affordable housing, and clear re-rating catalysts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Update Axiata (AXIATA MK/BUY/RM2.09/Target: RM2.50) ...
What’s New: GoTo reiterated its adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of IDR1.4trn to IDR1.6trn in FY25. ODS GTV and FinTech consumer lending loans outstanding outlook also remain intact despite macro and geopolitical uncertainties. We maintain our PT at IDR80. Analysts: Jin Yoon
What’s New: GoTo guided adjusted EBITDA in the range of IDR1.4trn to IDR1.6trn in FY25 partly driven by margin improvement in both ODS and FinTech. ODS GTV could grow low-to-mid teens YoY, while FinTech consumer lending loans outstanding could reach IDR8trn in 2025. We up our PT from IDR70 to IDR80 on improved outlook. Our updated PT of IDR80 implies a 4.1x FY25E EV/Revs (net). We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. Imports of oil from Canada into the US are subject to a 10% tariff, in addition to an extra 10% tariff on imports from the US, Canada retaliated by imposing a 25% tariff on imports from the US, including beverages, cosmetics and paper products worth US$20b. Mexico and China are also expected to retaliate. The biggest risk is the potential underperformance of the JCI. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO,...
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