reports
- Willinoy Sitorus
GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - EBITDA Resilience Back In Focus As M&...
We expect some competition in the ODS segment in 2Q25 although this should be offset by the continuous strong growth in the fintech segment. With M&A sentiment easing, we believe that further growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2H25 will serve as a catalyst to monitor (more colors during the 2Q25 analyst meeting). We maintain BUY on GOTO with a lower target price of Rp78. We use the SOTP method, applying EV/Sales multiples to each segment (ODS, fin-tech, e-commerce) — at levels similar to regional peer...
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Tham Mun Hon
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, June 26, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Market Strategy: 2H25: A big beautiful deal? INDONESIA Update GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp59/Target: Rp78): EBITDA resilience back in focus as M&A noise fades. MALAYSIA Sector REITs: We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the positives appear largely priced into current share prices, with limited near-term upside potential. Top picks: PREIT and CLMT. SINGAPORE Update CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP/BUY/S$2.15/Target: S$2.42): Organic growth from AEIs and t...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Singapore Research Team
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, May 05, 2025
INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25 Remove ICBP, EXCL, and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Sector Property Amid tariff overhang concerns, we favour companies with clear earnings visibility, solid exposure to affordable housing, and clear re-rating catalysts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Update Axiata (AXIATA MK/BUY/RM2.09/Target: RM2.50) ...
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
SWB SUNWAY BHD
UEMS UEM SUNRISE BHD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
MCH MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD
9CI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
STM SEATRIUM LTD
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
OTEK OILTEK INTERNATIONAL (OTEK SP)
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Jin Yoon
GOTO 1Q25 Results: Profitability Guide Remains Intact Despite Macro Un...
What’s New: GoTo reiterated its adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of IDR1.4trn to IDR1.6trn in FY25. ODS GTV and FinTech consumer lending loans outstanding outlook also remain intact despite macro and geopolitical uncertainties. We maintain our PT at IDR80. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
GOTO 4Q24 Results: Profitability to Further Improve in FY25
What’s New: GoTo guided adjusted EBITDA in the range of IDR1.4trn to IDR1.6trn in FY25 partly driven by margin improvement in both ODS and FinTech. ODS GTV could grow low-to-mid teens YoY, while FinTech consumer lending loans outstanding could reach IDR8trn in 2025. We up our PT from IDR70 to IDR80 on improved outlook. Our updated PT of IDR80 implies a 4.1x FY25E EV/Revs (net). We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Trade War Begins
Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. Imports of oil from Canada into the US are subject to a 10% tariff, in addition to an extra 10% tariff on imports from the US, Canada retaliated by imposing a 25% tariff on imports from the US, including beverages, cosmetics and paper products worth US$20b. Mexico and China are also expected to retaliate. The biggest risk is the potential underperformance of the JCI. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO,...
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Strategy: Trade War Begins: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, CMRY, KLBF, SIDO, CTRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ): Technical BUY Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - 2024 JCI Return Analysis
The JCI delivered a 3.7% decline in 2024, underperforming the MSASJ after two previous years of outperformance. IDXENER was the top performing sector in the JCI with a 31.9% return. IDXFIN dropped 6.2% in 2024 with big banks delivering negative returns. Gains of over 100% have been observed in MLPT, SRAJ, JSPT, PTRO, PANI, CLEO and BRMS. The worst performers are SMGR, UNVR, MDKA, GGRM, TOWR, TLKM and HMSP. For 2025, our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 6, 2025
Strategy: 2024 JCI Return Analysis: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference
The key takeaways from our regional KL conference are: a) most investors agree that Prabowo’s programmes are positive for Indonesia; b) investors are concerned about the widening budget deficit; c) foreign investors are pleased that local fund managers are buying; d) there is interest in syariah banks, particularly BRIS; and e) investors are inquiring about ACES vs Mr DIY Indonesia. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Strategy: Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 29, 2024
Strategy: Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Benyamin Mikael
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an en...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Stevanus Juanda
Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: Rp1t In On-demand Se...
GOTO guides for its ODS adjusted EBITDA margin to expand 25bp qoq to 1.2% in 2025, or Rp1t. Loan book could grow 20% qoq to Rp5t-5.5t in Dec 24 and increase further to Rp8.6t by Dec 25. 2025 adjusted fintech EBITDA could reach Rp200b by 2025. The losses from its e-commerce segment remain unpredictable as TikTok has spent Rp10t on Tokopedia in the past six months. Thus, GOTO could still record a net loss in 2025. With improvements in GOTO’s operations, we maintain BUY with a target price of Rp85.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Colin Lee
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 18, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mainly stable except for weakness in real estate. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$130.00) 2QFY25: Seeking high quality growth and gradual monetisation. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/HOLD/HK$5.13/Target: HK$5.50) 9M24: Disappointing results; targets positive revenue growth in 2025. JD Logistics, Inc (2618 HK/BUY/HK$14.16/Target: HK$22...
ADCB ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD.
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
BANPU TB BANPU
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
OXMU PRIME US REIT
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
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