A director at ASOS bought 150,000 shares at 367p and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Clos...
EPS growth prospects are brighter in the US than in Europe, which is justified given the differential in the growth and inflation outlook between the two regions. However, the adjustment that has taken place on EPS in Europe is a positive factor: we are now "at the price" ahead of the cyclical recovery that is taking shape for the rest of 2024. Sector-wise, the ongoing upward revision of EPS in travel & leisure, banks and media is expected to continue apace and provide support for sec...
Les perspectives de croissance des BPA sont supérieures aux Etats-Unis qu’en Europe, ce qui est justifié étant donné le différentiel de perspectives de croissance et d’inflation entre les deux zones. L’ajustement qui a eu lieu sur les BPA en Europe est toutefois un facteur positif : nous sommes désormais « au prix » avant la reprise cyclique qui se dessine pour la suite de 2024. Sectoriellement, la révision à la hausse en cours des BPA sur le Travel & Leisure, les banques et les Media...
>Sales down 18% in H1 and adjusted EBIT of -£ 98m - Last week Asos reported final results for H1 2024 which ended 3 March after giving prelims before. Sales decreased 18% y-o-y to £ 1.5bn, with UK down 16%, EU decreasing 11% and the US down 25%. This reflects actions taken during FY 2023 to improve core profitability under the Driving Change agenda and with H1 intake c. -30% y-o-y as they right-size stock levels. Thus, the adjusted gross margin decreased 260bp and adj...
>Final FY 2023 results are in line with prelims - Last week, Asos released final numbers for FY 2023 (which ended in August) in line with preliminary results. FY 2023 sales decreased 11% y-o-y on an adjusted basis mainly due to the UK (-13%) and US (-14%) being down materially. The inflationary environment led to much lower traffic which was only partly offset by higher average baskets. FY 2023 adjusted EBIT came in at -£ 29m, implying a margin of 0.8% (down 190bp). ...
>15% sales decline and profits at lower end of range - Today, Asos released a trading statement for the period P4 which is the quarter ending 3 September. Sales declined 15% y-o-y, in line with the guidance and expectations. The company indicated a strong start to the period followed by a weaker performance in July and August amidst a deterioration in the UK clothing market. P4 will be another profitable quarter with c. £ 300m of profit improvement and cost savings ha...
Last Wednesday we held our twenty-eighth ABN AMRO – ODDO BHF Benelux Forum in Amsterdam, at the headquarters of ABN AMRO. This year our conference has reached a record level of participation among both investors and issuers. Overall, we welcomed 84 investors, 31 companies with many C-suite representatives, and hosted 281 meetings with many group meetings. We look forward to welcoming all participants next year as well. - ...
Last Wednesday we held our twenty-eighth ABN AMRO – ODDO BHF Benelux Forum in Amsterdam, at the headquarters of ABN AMRO. This year our conference has reached a record level of participation among both investors and issuers. Overall, we welcomed 84 investors, 31 companies with many C-suite representatives, and hosted 281 meetings with many group meetings. We look forward to welcoming all participants next year as well. - ...
>New £ 275m loan and £ 75m revolver - At the end of last week, Asos announced that it had entered into a £ 200m senior term loan and a £ 75m super senior revolving facility with specialist lender Bantry Bay Capital Limited through to April 2026, with the optionality to further extend. The new facilities are subject only to a minimum liquidity covenant and will replace the existing £ 350m revolving credit facility which was due to expire in November 2024. The company ...
Que ce soit en termes macroéconomiques ou sur les profits des sociétés européennes exposées à la Chine, la réouverture est amenée à décevoir dans les mois qui viennent. Dans ce contexte, nous proposons une stratégie de long/short sur 7 secteurs: Hotels / Airports : long IHG / short ADP - Luxury / Textiles : long Moncler / short adidas - Food & Bev / consumers : long Pernod Ricard / short L’Oréal - Cap Goods : long Knorr-Bremse / Short Kone - Chemicals : long Covestro / short BASF - A...
On the macroeconomic front or in terms of the profits of European firms exposed, China’s reopening could disappoint in the months ahead. We offer a long/short strategy with players set to stand out in this context: hotels/airports: long IHG/short ADP, luxury/textiles: long Moncler/short adidas, food and beverages/consumer: long Pernod Ricard/short L’Oréal, capital goods: long Knorr-Bremse/short Kone, chemicals: long Covestro/short BASF, auto and parts: long Porsche /short Volkswagen, ...
>New loan and revolver with a face value of £ 275m - Asos entered into a £ 200m senior term loan and a £ 75m super senior revolving facility with specialist lender Bantry Bay Capital Limited through to April 2026, with the optionality to further extend. The New Facilities will replace the existing £ 350m revolving credit facility which was due to expire in November 2024. The New Facilities are subject only to a minimum liquidity covenant. The company estimates an aver...
An £80m equity raise and £275m new debt facility (replacing the existing £350m RCF) may well help to improve flexibility with an extended duration (April 2026) and easier covenants but comes at the cost of 20% dilution and an 11% interest rate. An expensive refinancing for no additional liquidity and funding. While we remain wary of the new strategy, the risk of an equity raise has now materialised, and we therefore move to HOLD (from SELL). The shares are trading on 0.2x EV/Sales and 4x EV/EBIT...
Après avoir fait preuve d’une belle résilience dans un contexte compliqué (inflation, conflit Russie/Ukraine), HighCo devrait rester sur la même tendance avec une activité en Belgique qui continue de souffrir compensée par une bonne résilience en France. Nous tablons en 2023 sur une stabilité de la marge brute (+0.7%) à 77.7 M€ et du RAO à 16.3 M€, soit une marge opérationnelle élevée de 21% (en ligne avec la guidance du groupe). Malgré une valorisation qui nous paraît très attractive...
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