reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EAT PW; EUR PW; CBF PW; MBR PW; ALE PW; VRC PW; TEN PW; PK...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 3Q24 in line, on a EUR 9m positive one-off NEGATIVE • Eurocash: 3Q24 weak, as expected; FY25E guidance cancelled NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: 3Q24 results review – 26% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 3Q24 EBITDA up 26% yoy, 22-28% above our and the market's expectations POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q24 EBITDA beat, but yoy decline guided for 4Q24E, due to international operations NEUTRAL • Vercom: 3Q24 results - 28% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with ou...
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
R22 R22
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
VRC VERCOM SA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BIMAS TI; CEZ CP; PGSUS TI; RICHT HB; APR PW; SNP RO; PPC ...
HEADLINES: • BIM: weak operating results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • CEZ: 3Q24 bottom-line miss due to accounting changes; EBITDA guidance raised by 7% POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q24 – 22% higher caskx alleviated by 4% higher RASK and 12% lower fuel cask (in line with the consensus) • Richter: 3Q24 operating results in line NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: preliminary 3Q24 EBIT falls 22% yoy, 9-12% below our expectations and the market NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: October sales growth at 13% yoy, broadly as expect...
- Mihaly Gajda
Oil & gas macroeconomic environment shifts from tailwind to headwind f...
We have updated our financial model to reflect recent macroeconomic developments, setting a 2025 year-end ex-dividend target price of 42.6 EUR, representing a 23.1% upside including the anticipated EUR 4.00 dividend following the 2024 fiscal year. Consequently, we maintain our Buy recommendation for OMV.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OTP HB; CCC PW; DNP PW; INPST NA; MOL HB; WIZZ LN; EUROB G...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: solid 3Q24 results, in line with our forecasts; future share price performance depends on growth guidance and/or capital distribution NEUTRAL • CCC: historically-best quarterly EBITDA 9% above our expectations, due to opex control POSITIVE • Dino Polska: 4-8% EBITDA beats in 3Q24, EBITDA back on the rise POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q24 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • MOL: 3Q24 results – EBITDA in line with our and the consensus estimates NEUTRAL • Wizz...
MOL MOL NYRT
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
CCC CCC SA
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
NLBR NLB GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: only the Czech Republic in the bla...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
R22 R22
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
ADNOCDRILL ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AIRA AIR ASTANA JSC
GEV GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: TL Macro; GR Macro; YKBNK TI; AKCNS TI; SOLUTION AB; DNP P...
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: some good news, within the context of (hopefully) improving inflation in the medium term • Greece macro: the consumer is not happy • Yapi Kredi: 3Q24 – normalising trends, but still a tough quarter • Akcansa: 3Q24 conference call takeaways • Solutions by STC: 3Q24 conference call takeaways • Dino: 3Q24E preview – 4% yoy EBITDA erosion expected (due on 7 November) • Eurocash: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy EBITDA decline expected (due on 15 November)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EBS AV; MBK PW; ING PW; JMT PL; KOMB CP; MCOVB SS; TKNSA T...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: 3Q24 results – strong NII delivery • mBank: underlying 3Q34 business delivery in line; beat on headline net profit due to tax charges NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24 results – minor miss on high credit risk charges, as corporate NPL ratio surges NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 3Q24, Biedronka at -2% lfl and stable margin erosion; price war continues POSITIVE • Komercni Banka: 3Q24 results – net profit largely in line with expectations • Medicover: 3Q24 operating numbers in l...
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: MIL PW; SPL PW; OMV AV; SNP RO; BDX PW; EUR PW
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E strategy implies a return to growth and more of a focus on the corporate segment POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: 3Q24 results in line; key focus on 2025-28E strategic update • Santander Bank Polska: posts solid 3Q24 profits, as NII peaks and FX mortgage saga costs are very low for the quarter • OMV: 3Q24 results – CCS EBIT in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 results in line with consensus NEUTRAL • Budimex: key takea...
- Marta Jezewska-Wasilewska
WOOD Flash – Bank Millennium: ambitious, but achievable, 2025-28E stra...
Millennium has published its 2025-28E strategic targets, with a 2028E reported ROE of a minimum of 18%. Our current explicit forecasts for Bank Millennium end in 2026E and imply a headline ROE of 15.5% and an adjusted ROE of 20.7%, with headline 2026E net profit of PLN 1.44bn and adjusted net profit of PLN 1.94bn. It is hard to compare our current forecasts with the bank’s targets, which reach out two years ahead, but we believe that our 2024-26E forecasts lay out a sensible path to achieving a ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ACP PW; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; GE Macro; ARCLK TI; SOL...
HEADLINES: • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound slower than expected (downgraded to HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (21-27 October) • Georgia macro: early takes following the parliamentary election • Arcelik: weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: 3Q24 EBIT marginally above our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 3Q24 conference call takeaways • PKO BP: three of four largest minority shareholders act jointly to call EGM...
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
SNP PETROM S.A.
MCOV B MEDICOVER AB
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; LPP PW; GEV CP; EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; ...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 3Q24 traffic, margin descent underway • LPP: regulator initiates proceedings against the company, on the miscommunication of the departure from Russia NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: successfully issues EUR 7.5m from the second tranche of its green bond NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 October) • Sarantis: 3Q24 trading update preview (due on 23 October) • Budimex: 3Q24E EBITDA flat yoy (due on 28 October) • PKO BP: 3Q24E preview (due on 7 November) • OTP Ba...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ASELS TI; KTY PW; KAP LI; SHO PW; MIL PW; BHW PW; VRC PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; PKO PW; EAT PW; SFG RO; ALR PW;...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 October) • PKO BP: PLN 994m of CHF mortgage saga provisions in 3Q24E NEUTRAL • AmRest/Sphera Group: Wendy’s entering CEE NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 24 October) • Santander Bank Polska: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Komercni Banka: 3Q24E preview (due on 31 October)
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 11/10/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price US$26 per share: Downtime and blockades continue to impact production. All eyes on Argentina – 3Q24 production was 33,215 boe/d with production in Colombia still impacted by downtime and blockades (we expected 34.6 mboe/d). Production at Llanos-34 continues to decline. Production in Brazil remains shut-in. GeoPark had highlighted these downside risks in August. This was partially offset by (1) high prod...
GPRK GEOPARK
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
OMV OMV AG
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
REP REPSOL SA
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
MATD PETRO MATAD
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OPAP GA (reinitiating with a BUY); THYAO TI; AEGN GA; RICH...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: licence to yield (reinitiating coverage with a BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 traffic - ASK up 5% yoy NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 traffic - ASK down 1% yoy NEUTRAL • Richter: licences in a new biosimilar candidate from China’s Bio-Thera POSITIVE • Eurocash: creates a purchase group POSITIVE • Dom Development: advance dividend of PLN 6.0/share POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 3Q24E – 1% yoy EBITDAaL growth expected (due on 23 October) • Short News (CPS, BOCHGR)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: GSPARK HB (stays BUY); OMV AV; SNP RO; WPL PW; Polish tele...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: still great value (stays BUY) • OMV: 3Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: real users in September 2024 NEGATIVE • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 3Q24 NEUTRAL • EME macro/strategy: macro all-in-one (30 September-6 October)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CAI AV (upgraded to BUY); OMV AV; TXT PW; Polish banks; Tü...
HEADLINES: • CA Immo: easing alleviates risks; stock at fair levels after dip (upgraded to HOLD) • OMV: force majeure lifted on Libyan oil exports POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 2Q24-25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: FinMin on potential sector consolidation and bank tax changes • Türkiye macro: inflation declines to 49.4% yoy in September • European Oil and Gas Monthly: September 2024 - Brent, refining margins down • Wizz Air CMD: show me the money NEUTRAL
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CCC PW (stays BUY); TXT PW; DOM PW; MIL PW; Poland macro; ...
HEADLINES: • CCC: Shaq attaq (stays BUY) • Text: 2Q24-25 (calendar 3Q24) preliminary results - MRR of USD 7.04m (-0.4% qoq, +8.8% yoy) NEGATIVE • Dom Development: strong sales performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to set aside PLN 470m of FX mortgage provisions in 3Q24E, cost of credit holidays lower NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP extends the pause • GEVORKYAN: EUR 31m long-term contract in the defence industry xx POSITIVE • Cimsa: completes the acquisition of Mannok DAC POSITIVE • Dino P...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: WIZZ LN; BFT PW; PCF PW; Polish consumer staples; 11B PW; ...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: summer traffic in line, but consensus seems too bullish on earnings • Benefit Systems: net additions of 20k sport cards in 3Q24 POSITIVE • PCF Group: earnings call takeaways - Echo to be smaller than the other WFH projects NEUTRAL • Polish consumer staples: Netto plans to open 350 discount stores in Poland by 2028E NEGATIVE • 11 bit studios: delays the release of The Alters to 1Q25E NEGATIVE • Huuuge Games: September bookings estimate up 10% mom, but flat for the flagship ...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Greece rebounds, elsewhere mostly ...
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
GEKTERNA GEK TERNA
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
R22 R22
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
DUNAHOUSE DUNA HOUSE
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
VRC CTP NV
KLKIM VERCOM SA
SHO KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
4071 SHOPER SA
TRESTATES ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
GEV TRADE ESTATES REIC SA
NOVAL GEVORKYAN A.S.
BOCHGR NOVAL PROPERTY
BANK OF CYPRUS
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