HEADLINES: • AmRest/Sphera Group: no beauty and no beast (AmRest stays BUY, Sphera downgraded to HOLD) • InPost: EUR 15.6 offer from FedEx, Advent, A&R and PPF consortium POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: solid 4Q25 delivery, beat due to tax differences NEUTRAL • PGE: URE initiates proceedings over FWRC settlements NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: January sales growth drops to 3.4% yoy NEGATIVE • Develia: 4Q25E preview – 30% EBITDA drop, following margin normalisation (due on 3 April) • 4iG: 4Q25E preview – 4%...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 4Q prelims in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold • Budimex: bids rank highest in two PSE tenders NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 4Q25 operational results NEUTRAL • Romania macro: positive news • OTE: Greek telecoms regulator launches public consultations on 900MHz and 1,800MHz spectrum POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells 283MW UK solar portfolio to Schroders Greencoat POSITIVE • Aselsan: strategic JV agreement with CSG POSITIVE • Erste Bank: 4Q25E preview (due on...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: still opportunities, if the growth continues (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • cyber_Folks: 4Q25E results preview – 18% yoy organic adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Shoper: 4Q25E results preview – 11% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Vercom: 4Q25E results preview – 23% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Ten Square Games: 4Q25E preview – adjusted EBITDA -7% qoq on higher U...
We keep our positive bias on the Polish banks, although the upside is melting away, with the continuous positive share price performance. The upside left for our median 12M PTs lands at 17%+, just enough to keep our marginally positive stance on the sector. The WIG Banks index has returned c.45%+ in the LTM, mostly a function of a multiples expansion, as the 2025E median EPS change was almost zero in the LTM and the 2026E EPS saw a median cut of 10% in the LTM, driven mostly by the change in the...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik (BUY, PT TRY 207.5): 4Q25 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • XTB S.A.: 4Q25 net profit materially ahead of expectations • CCC: acquisition of controlling stake in MKRI NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: fined PLN 34m by Poland's antitrust regulator NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: January 2026 Sensor Tower bookings estimate down 1% mom NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: January 2026 Sensor Tower bookings estimate flat mom NEUTRAL • Rainbow Tours: 4Q25E preview – EBITDA marginally above zero in...
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: structural headwinds ahead (downgraded to SELL) • EME Strategy: OFEs' 2025 annual assets structure • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl reached 368k in 2H25, down 2% yoy NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 4Q25E preview (due on 9 February) • ING BSK: 4Q25E preview (due on 10 February) • mBank: 4Q25E preview (due on 10 February) • MOL: to buy NIS in Serbia POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: concludes construction of 72MW of BESS projects NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: solid traffic growth...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today assigned a Ba3 (hyb) local-currency rating to Bank Millennium S.A.'s (BM, long-term deposits: Baa1 stable, Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA): ba1) perpetual non-cumulative Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital securities with non-viability loss absorption features. The...
HEADLINES: • Dom Development: sells 4.4k apartments in 2025, an all-time high POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to add PLN 487m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q25E NEUTRAL • Polish banks: Puls Biznesu on M&A in the Polish banking sector • Titan: Titan America enters agreement to acquire Keystone Cement Company POSITIVE • OPAP: Allwyn merger passes EGM; focus shifts to 9 February exit-right deadline NEUTRAL • Jumbo: 2025 sales +7%, to EUR 1.23bn, as expected; declares EUR 0.50 special DPS NEUTRAL • Turk...
EME Equity Market – December 2025 Czech PX the best performer in December; no market in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD terms in December. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 7.6% mom; followed by the Romanian BET (+7.1% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+6.4% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+0.2% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • CCC: shareholders ask for 2m share buyback POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: court approves PLN 160m fine from Antimonopoly Office NEGATIVE • Allegro/InPost: EU to introduce EUR 3 payment for all packages coming from outside the community NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: PLN 19m 2017 waste-fee case closed NEUTRAL • Kety: 4Q25E preliminary results preview – flat yoy EBITDA in a tough environment (due on 17 December) • Pepco Group: 2H25E preview – EBITDA decline of 5% yoy expected (due on 17 December) N...
Macro outlook: The CBT has reduced the policy rate by 950bps to 38% in YE25. For the subsequent cycle, we expect the policy rate to decline to 30% by 2026E, with a more gradual, rather than steep, trajectory of quarterly margin improvements throughout 2026. Inflation is projected to ease to 31% in FY25 and 23.2% in FY26, down from 44.4% in 2024. For the valuation of CPI-linked securities, we use an Oct–Oct inflation assumption of 24%. Turkish banks are transitioning from CPI-driven to spread-d...
EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: the years ahead – 2026-27E • Rainbow Tours: consolidated October sales 20.7% higher yoy, driven by Paralela 45 acquisition; stand-alone sales 14% higher yoy POSITIVE • Alior Bank: c.PLN 105m positive DTA revaluation in 4Q25E NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: c.PLN 120m positive DTA revaluation in 4Q25E NEUTRAL • mBank: PLN 125m positive DTA revaluation and estimated 2026E CIT increase impact NEUTRAL • LPP: PLN 788m write-down of Russian assets NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: ...
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