HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: soft metal still rocks (stays BUY) • Elbit Systems: strong execution at a rich valuation (stays HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: management recommends CZK 4/share extra dividend due before the year-end POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: conditions have been met for the acquisition of Eco Point PSA shares POSITIVE • Inter Cars: September sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy POSITIVE • Rainbow Tours: winter season pre-sales 5.7% higher yoy NEUTRAL • GTC: repurchases EUR 195m of 2026 bonds • Er...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid 3Q25 trading update, but still at a standstill in Spain NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q25 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 394m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • Murapol: 734 apartments sold and 413 units handed over in 3Q25; 66% of our annual sales forecast met after 1-3Q25 NEGATIVE • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, on steady inflation • Romania macro: MPC on a prolonged pause • Theon International: si...
EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • Romanian Oil & Gas: still beyond the horizon (OMV Petrom downgraded to HOLD, Romgaz stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – twin deficits ameliorate, challenges persist • Huuuge Games: 2Q25 in line with expectations, USD 120m share buyback announced POSITIVE • Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO seems en route to exceed FY guidance POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 2Q25 earnings call takeaways – to test new small warehouse in Germany NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: to pay extra dividend in October POSIT...
In place of delays and cost overruns, the news on Neptun so far has been reassuring: first well spudded, platform under construction, and the start date unchanged. Nonetheless, we still have a two-year wait for completion. In the meantime, gas prices have been trending lower and oil prices are under pressure. Further deregulation in 2026E should free up the prices paid for gas, following power prices this year. We see the return of Russian gas as an outlier, which would crash gas prices. Romgaz ...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: value is (sometimes) relative (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: State of the Nation Address sets grounds for new constitutional reform and ambitious digitalisation agenda • PGE: 2Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: August sales growth decelerates to a mere 2% yoy NEGATIVE • Aselsan: massive domestic contract win POSITIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: wins multi-billion CZK tender for new generators at Temelin POSITIVE • MOL: announces discovery of an oil fie...
EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 2Q25 results – beat on the bottom line, but insurance operations show some weakness and delivered below expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q25 results – beat driven by stellar 37% gross profit margin POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: neutral 2Q25 results – beat on underlying bottom line driven by bond sales gains; negative NII trend NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 2Q25 – slightly above low expectations; new strategy publication in November POSITIVE • DataWalk: 2Q25 actual numbers fully in li...
HEADLINES: • Premier Energy: focus on RES (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Polish banks: FinMin may raise CIT rate for the banks, some offset may come from slight cut in the bank tax NEGATIVE • Dino: 1-5% EBITDA miss in 2Q25; FY25E lfl guidance cut to mid-single digits NEGATIVE • Budimex: final 2Q25 results fully confirm prelims NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: 2Q25 results NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: earnings call takeaways – optimistic outlook for 2H25E POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 2Q25 ear...
We see this news as outright negative, which could halt the robust share price performance of the Polish banks, for some time at least. One aspect is the direct financial impact of the proposed tax regime change for the sector, and another is that such a change could reduce trust in the stability of the operating backdrop of banking (and other sectors, potentially) in Poland. This could result in international investors applying a higher market risk premium to the Polish market, going forward, i...
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