Still cheap and the Red Sea is still closed

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9400.00) - Resistance to gravity seem...

The Q1 report was largely as expected, albeit with support in the results related to mostly passing effects. Hence, we retain our view that the chronic oversupply of vessels will deteriorate the current value of the company. On rates converging towards 2016 levels, it should burn through more than USD13bn by the end of our forecast period, with no respite in sight due to the towering orderbook and owners still willing to order. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to DKK9,400 ...

Q1'25 beat driven by Ocean and Terminals

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

TSMC & ASML signals, Auto semi recovery, and more. The Tech Weekly Wra...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 14 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1050.00) - Solid Q1 despite tough landscape

We view the balance of 2025 as highly uncertain given tariffs and the demand outlook, but view Autoliv’s solid Q1 and reiterated 2025 guidance as signs of confidence from the company. We believe Autoliv will have to carry at least some of the tariff costs (management says all will be passed on), and thus remain below the 10–10.5% EBIT margin guidance (we estimate 9.9%). We reiterate our BUY, as we see almost 40% EPS growth in 2024–2026e. We have raised our 2025e adj. EBIT by 6%, but cut our targ...

Norway: Government suggests substantial changes to farming regulations

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Q1 trading update: Volumes 3% above

No good deed goes unpunished

Gets the short end of the stick

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update